ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Well the NWS out of the N.O. has gone out on a limb and said all is okay next week for N.O. thanks to the GFS and EURO models.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
340 PM CDT Friday Aug 26 2016


Long term...

All of the medium range guidance continues to show a fairly strong
upper level ridge developing across the lower Mississippi Valley
on Tuesday and remaining in place through the end of next week.
These solutions also show the tropical disturbance in the Bahamas
impacting Florida, but staying well to the east of our region.
Given the high degree of agreement in the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) today
and yesterday, confidence has increased that a hot and dry weather
pattern will develop across the forecast area for next week.

The deep layer ridging in place will result in increased
subsidence throughout the atmospheric column, increased capping
aloft, reduced overall instability, and much lower chances for
rain. Only have slight chance pop of 20 percent in place each day
to reflect the risk of an isolated shower or storm developing
along any weak low level convergence zones. Temperatures will be
warmer than normal with highs climbing into the middle to upper
90s through the entire extended period. Given the hot temperatures
and fairly humid surface conditions, heat advisories may be
necessary for next week.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like some big storms started forming last several frames. This could be a sign of what is to come once the sunsets although it will have to deal with the land-firing convection first stealing away some of that energy.

nightime has been good to this system...slower movement, decreasing shear all point to better conditions

[floridasun78]

my weatherman here in miami saying 99l look better how look this time on thur

[ObsessedMiami]

Story on Miami media is potential for 6+ inches of rain through Tuesday and impact on Zika

[floridasun78]

Story on Miami media is potential for 6+ inches of rain through Tuesday and impact on Zika

yes that was news now their say flood could make zika bad

[AutoPenalti]

News station just advised all viewers that no tropical storm is heading to Florida and to only worry about locally heavy rain and light wind.

[jlauderdal]

Story on Miami media is potential for 6+ inches of rain through Tuesday and impact on Zika

mosquito's love standing water and they cant spray...6 inches isnt a big deal over the course of a few days in sofla..the problem is you can 10 inches in a day with a slow moving system, that is a problem, will see..seems like the biggest rains we get are the ones they didnt see coming

[blp]

The slow down today I think really helps this become vertically stacked. You can see the MLC working its way through Hispaniola. If it can catch up I think we are in business.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[jlauderdal]

my weatherman here in miami saying 99l look better how look this time on thur

craig setzer is a smart guy

[Stormcenter]

I personally don't think Florida is under the gun here from whatever forms but who knows. Every squirrel sometimes gets lucky and finds a nut.

[CourierPR]

News station just advised all viewers that no tropical storm is heading to Florida and to only worry about locally heavy rain and light wind.

Given that 99L is still several hundred miles to the southeast, that's a fairly bold statement to make.

[Weatherboy1]

Well I swore off even looking at 99 after she looked all but dead yesterday ... Could she be trying to make a comeback? Stranger things have happened I guess. Will be interesting to see if the convection from those last couple frames starts blowing up and maintaining. Hmmm

[Bocadude85]

I know the NAM is not great when it comes to the tropics but when you look at the 18Z 12km it does seem it fits pretty well with the current convective trends we are currently observing. Loop the run for the full effect.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016082618&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

[HurriGuy]

On the rapid scan visible, throughout the forming of the hot tower, I swear I see the lower level could deck start rotating more.

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160826&endtime=latest&nframes=50&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=900&aniheight=550

[floridasun78]

my weatherman here in miami saying 99l look better how look this time on thur

craig setzer is a smart guy

i met him i was on 5pm news last year i was weather watcher he cool guy person too

[Miami Storm Tracker]

BLP,

Is that the Mid Level off to the right where the big burst of storms are? Or could be where the eventual LLC gets going.

[bamajammer4eva]

Despite Satellite appearance and NHC increasing short term percentage to 30% Dothan news station says its less organized and development less likely


 https://twitter.com/WTVYNews4/status/769278325508313088

[Agua]

I am a real newbie so how does one tell a LLC from an MLC, I am sure it has to do with the cloud structure etc. but I have a tough time. I have been reading this site for many years but hardly ever post but I have learned a bunch, thanks.

You learn over time from just observing. Essentially, the LLC is going to be wispy looking and not as bright and dense as MLC.

[Dean4Storms]

Seeing signs of rotation near the latest burst of convection near the southern tip of that island near 22N 74W when I speed up the NASA Interactive GOES selector. There is at least an MLC developing there and I would not be surprised with the repeated Convective bursts there today of an LLC might be forming there as well. Much better presentation on satellite this afternoon.

I am a real newbie so how does one tell a LLC from an MLC, I am sure it has to do with the cloud structure etc. but I have a tough time.
I have been reading this site for many years but hardly ever post but I have learned a bunch, thanks.

To be honest it takes years of watching these systems unfold. In early stages such as this your best key is scattered smaller clouds streaming toward where you think the low level center might be, any clouds that are wispy or tops of convective bursts are usually mid and upper level. I look for the small almost popcorn looking clouds that are streaming toward the suspect center, those will be lower level cumulus.

[psyclone]

Nobody is "off the hook", "in the clear" or has "dodged a bullet" based on model runs.

These terms don't apply until the either the system is dissipated or it has passed your area and isn't expected to come back.

I look at this from the opposite angle. everyone's off the hook until something actually forms. Otherwise you have unwarranted hysteria that does nothing but foment future complacency. after the past decade or so, shouldn't the burden of proof be on this basin to actually produce? I'm not getting suckered in by apocalyptic model runs that frankly have very little chance of ever coming to fruition. give me a number, a name...something besides this D-Max will be different.. Don't get me wrong I'm still watching as I know things can change...

Only the hysterical succumb to hysteria. The models are out there, they're publicly accessible. They're science and math, they're information and they're not going away. They don't "sucker" anybody unless someone allows themselves to be "suckered". The Atlantic basin doesn't have a burden of proof. It's nature. It's not a TV show that you can stop watching and hope gets canceled. Whatever's going to happen weather-wise will happen and it doesn't matter that it's been 10 years since a hurricane hit FL or that it's been 10 days.

You're either prepared or you're not. And if you're unprepared because predicted storms in the past didn't pan out, that's on you. Not the models, not the internet, not the media, not Storm2K.

I understand what you're saying and I don't disagree. It just seems like of the level of concern we have over a tropical wave today is what was reserved for a TS long ago. It's a function of tons of info. the world has changed..much of it good but not all of it...and it's a package deal. I've been on here a long time so I'll let my post history speak for itself. I'm not a hypester nor am I a Debbie downer. I'm interested in what is most probable and what is actually happening. And most importantly, I'm on a quest for knowledge.