ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

From NASA Space!

Taken from where?!?!

ISS???

If so, how can they be IN the pic???

 https://twitter.com/AstroKomrade/status/900862850939457536




Space station is big. Lots of photos will have other parts in view.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Starting to look intense again. Wonder if it is about to take off? Also, wonder if recon will find stronger winds this time?

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Unnecessary evacuations are in themselves dangerous. This is partly why both voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders exist. If you're not under either one, you may be in the way of others who actually need to get out. This is again why I don't think we should be telling people yes or no. Let them go to the safe sources of info and make their own decision.

Yeah. We don't need another Rita, where the evacuation killed more people than the storm did.

[Nederlander]

Something tells me this will become a category 5 just a eerie feeling looking at it develop

What is telling you this? Everything I have seen shows category 3 with a slight potential of category 4.. We are about 24 hours out now, and it would have to deepen significantly to reach cat 5.. still about 50+ mb away from being close to a cat 5.. That being said, a major hurricane is being forecast and it should be taken seriously. Just not sure it's got the time to get to a cat 5

[GeneratorPower]

I think Cat 5 is possible but still unlikely just because it takes near ideal conditions to reach and especially to maintain Cat 5 intensity. Eyewall replacement cycles may also play a role here eventually. Have to agree that it looks dire for the central Texas coast at this hour.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I thought the NHC mentioned dry air intrusion/weakening? The pressure is down but that could be temporary right? Trying to make up mind whether to stay or leave (in Victoria on central TX coast).

Leave. You don't want to be anywhere near this thing.

if he's in Victoria, he's well inland. Not in an evacuation zone, unless he's by a waterway

I haven't watched the video, but it seems to talk about a mandatory evacuation in Victoria from the description:
https://www.facebook.com/cityof.victori ... 064723658/

[Blinhart]

I really wish I could bash a meteorologist on TWC, but I don't want to be banned, so all I will say is I was just yelling at the TV. And yes we all know water kills.

The odds of this being a Cat 4 is going up every minute.

My question is what will happen if this does stall right on the coast and not go inland any? Also another question some of these maps they are showing shows leveed areas, my question is how tall are those levees?

[txwatcher91]

Something tells me this will become a category 5 just a eerie feeling looking at it develop

What is telling you this? Everything I have seen shows category 3 with a slight potential of category 4.. We are about 24 hours out now, and it would have to deepen significantly to reach cat 5.. still about 50+ mb away from being close to a cat 5.. That being said, a major hurricane is being forecast and it should be taken seriously. Just not sure it's got the time to get to a cat 5

A small and contracting eye that further tightens the pressure gradient can easily do that if the conditions and structure is right. Wilma went from 982 to 882 in 24 hours, we won't see that here but it goes to illustrate how a tiny/contracting eye can cause the pressure to crash and winds to quickly ramp up.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Can this thing be awesome and fearsome at the same time?

Welcome to the hobby of hurricane watching. It is. And they are.

Well, the words "awesome" and "awful" have the same root, so...
[For the record I think tropical cyclones can also be pretty or even cute in visible light. Not from the ground of course. Never from the ground. ]

[Bolebuns]

I thought the NHC mentioned dry air intrusion/weakening? The pressure is down but that could be temporary right? Trying to make up mind whether to stay or leave (in Victoria on central TX coast).

I just now registered on this site after lurking for years just to tell you to get the heck out of there.

I will bop in after lurking years to say the same thing. Don't risk it, especially if you have other options.

[GeneratorPower]

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=TXZ234&warncounty=TXC469&firewxzone=TXZ234&local_place1=2%20Miles%20SW%20Victoria%20TX&product1=Hurricane+Local+Statement&lat=28.8059&lon=-97.0036#.WZ-hNEEpD7o

Hurricane Local Statement from NWS gives pertinent evacuation status. About 3-4 paragraphs down.

[Blinhart]

So they just did an intermediate advisory evidently, dropped the pressure to 971.

[ROCK]

Wow...hope the last Euro run takes it inland more..

[Nederlander]

I'm not too familiar with Rick Knabb, but two observations... He seems very intelligent and knows his stuff... and he seems very uncomfortable on camera lol.. how long has he been with TWC and am I the only one making these obs?

[Hurrilurker]

Still looks like he's battling dry air from the S/SW, probably inhibiting RI some.

[jasons2k]

All, just a reminder -- as our disclaimer stipulates, always use the official NHC forecast and warnings to make any decisions to evacuate, etc. Follow the hurricane statements from your local NWS office for detailed information.....

[GeneratorPower]

From Victoria, TX NWS results:

Mandatory evacuations have been issued for the following areas:
- The city of Port Aransas
- Aransas County
- Refugio County
- San Patricio County
- Victoria County
- Calhoun County
- Kleberg County

[KC7NEC]

My question is what will happen if this does stall right on the coast and not go inland any? Also another question some of these maps they are showing shows leveed areas, my question is how tall are those levees?

Adding to this question; What effect could a potential 3-5 days of torrential rain have on the levees let alone after being through a hurricane?

[tolakram]

HELLO



If someone posts wondering if they should evacuate they should be listening to local authorities, enough said. Let's not get into an argument over evacuations, mandatory or otherwise. Let's also avoid feeding trolls, not that we have any but if someone is posting from a mandatory evacuation area asking if they should evacuate ...

Please listen to the NHC and your local authorities.

[BZSTORM]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 250355
TCUAT4

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...11 PM CDT POSITION ESTIMATE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 94.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky