ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Beryl is completely outside of even the short term cone.

[Texashawk]

I have zero faith in the intensity modeling for Beryl at this point.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L_intensity_latest.png

This storm has outperformed models quite a few times intensity wise. Excuse us for being a bit worried…

[GalvestonDuck]

Everyone is freaking out but not a single model shows more than Cat 1. Deep breaths, everyone.

Rule of thumb: Always prepare for one category above what the forecast is.

[captainbarbossa19]

About to emerge in the Gulf. This is my estimate for the COC.

[South Texas Storms]

Beryl is completely outside of even the short term cone.

https://i.ibb.co/b7R2nCV/IMG-3505.jpg

This storm just refuses to follow any forecasts or model guidance...so annoying. Wondering at this point if the TX/LA border is a possibility...

[3090]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1809307352618922283

Let’s hope the model led dry air entrainment keeps a lid on Beryl in the Gulf. Last thing we need is yet another Gulf coast major landfall.

Well get ready. At this point unfortunately pieces are coming together for it to happen.

[Craters]

Hard to beat the Katrina shift west with 3 days out, was pinpointing the FL panhandle and we all know how that panned out.. I remember getting a message from wxmn57 on that Friday before the storm telling me he was pretty sure that it was not going into the FL Panhandle but towards the MS and NOLA areas... I think his mother lived in Pascagoula at the time... remember it like yesterday..

It sure would be interesting to take the data from, say, five days before that shift west and let the current models run to see what their forecasts would be now relative to the ones that existed back then...

[ScottNAtlanta]

Wow, she looks primed to go when she hits the water.

Basically every model is showing some dry air entrainment as soon as Beryl emerges over water, so any recovery is likely to be slow.

I don't think so. If we have learned anything, Beryl drinks shear like coffee, and dry air is just some creamer for her coffee. On a serious note, if we have not learned anything so far, it's that the normal barriers or unfavorable environments mean nothing to this storm. Now, when do we think that TS/ Hurricane watches will start to go up for SE Texas, a few days away and the local Mets still seem to be downplaying it.

Here is the mid-level WV loop. Doesn't look like it will entrain dry air anytime soon

[captainbarbossa19]

Beryl is completely outside of even the short term cone.


https://i.ibb.co/b7R2nCV/IMG-3505.jpg

This storm just refuses to follow any forecasts or model guidance...so annoying. Wondering at this point if the TX/LA border is a possibility...

The ICON model is probably the closest to reality in terms of track currently. It showed the storm about to emerge in the Gulf at 18z and moving NNW.

[xironman]

Beryl is completely outside of even the short term cone.

https://i.ibb.co/b7R2nCV/IMG-3505.jpg

The NHC has said that to the east is a better environment and stronger storm is probably more likely to move east. Feedback loop.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

[xpost] https://x.com/mattlanza/status/18093205 ... 7t10NsZo2Q[/xpost]

[rickcorvin]

CAPE is the energy from the atmosphere, very useful stuff when you are chasing severe weather. But we are tracking hurricanes here, the primary source of energy is the ocean heat, atmospheric energy is little compared to the ocean. Tbh I've never seen any mets on twitter even mentions CAPE when talking about the environment.

This is right zz. But I can't tell you how many times in the last 7 or 8 seasons G posted CAPE and a system approached and got noticeably juiced up. Much of the time that was 3.5k or 4k or whatever. I suppose it has to tap into the stream to use it, so it would be inflow channels I'm guessing. We've seen lightning increase. We've even seen some gravity wave stuff. Maybe it's all peripheral or part of a larger picture. But I've just seen it too many times to ignore it.

Yeah, I understood Gcane to be identifying areas conductive to development. High CAPE is going to correlate with a moist atmosphere and more favorable background conditions.

[Stormgodess]

Beryl is completely outside of even the short term cone.

https://i.ibb.co/b7R2nCV/IMG-3505.jpg

Sadly that's on par with how almost all the models have tracked this storm thus far.

[Frank P]

The leading edge of the convection associated with the north side of center of Beryl is kissing the GOM... I hope they have a failed relationship down the road

[kevin]

It's still the first week of July at we've already had more freak occurences with this one storm than many entire seasons. Once again Beryl defies models, expert forecasting and logic. I would recommend the entire Texas coastline to prepare for a cat 2 - 3, better safe than sorry.

[USTropics]

CAPE is the energy from the atmosphere, very useful stuff when you are chasing severe weather. But we are tracking hurricanes here, the primary source of energy is the ocean heat, atmospheric energy is little compared to the ocean. Tbh I've never seen any mets on twitter even mentions CAPE when talking about the environment.

CAPE is more beneficial for mid-latitude systems where you need some type of convective lift/buoyancy. This is necessary for an air parcel to rise and get to the Lifting Condensation Level (LCL), where it then becomes saturated. When we have severe weather or significant tornado outbreaks, it's typically in a high shear + high CAPE environment (whereas a high shear environment disrupts the closed cycle of a tropical cyclone).

As stated, tropical cyclones act as closed systems (i.e., Carnot engines), where the main driving force is known as Wind-Induced Surface Heat Exchange (or WISHE, because you know we love our catchy acronyms in MET ). WISHE is exactly as it implies, It refers to a process in tropical cyclones where strong winds over the ocean enhance the exchange of heat between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. This exchange further intensifies the cyclone by providing additional energy through the transfer of latent heat from the warm ocean surface to the atmosphere, thereby fueling the storm's development.

That's not to say CAPE doesn't play a role, in fact it does for establishing MPI. This is getting a bit technical, but the main driving force for maximum potential intensity (MPI) are SSTs, outflow temperature (i.e., top of convection temps), and surface enthalpy flux (essentially CAPE is a measure of surface enthalpy flux). It modifies the temperature lapse rate and thus can control the updraft intensity (if you can modify the tropopause height, you get increasingly colder cloud tops, and thus you increase your MPI). Difference is, mid-latitude cyclones and severe weather are dependent on CAPE, and tropical cyclones are not.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I wouldn't rule out a Cat 4 if everything goes perfect for this storm.

[MississippiWx]

And just to beat the dead horse, these are the latest 12z Euro Ensemble plots compared to where it appears Beryl’s center is located. Nuts.


uploadpic

[Tailgater33]

We know land interaction can steer storms somewhat, when it reaches gulf let’s see if it returns to a more wnw motion. I’m more than a little concerned by this northward “ jog”.
The coolest or less boiling waters are on the northern edge of the Yucatán peninsula, after that nothing good.

[IcyTundra]

I honestly think TX/LA border is in play at this point.