ATL: IKE Discussion

[stormchazer]

oy, I just read about the evac for the keys. Didn't think that it would happen this early, but it is the right call.

Only one way out, and nowhere to hide on the Keys. (Never been there, but seen pictures) Ten needless evacuations from the Keys would be cheaper than one evacuation that turned out to be needed but wasn't ordered. Thousands of lives cheaper.

You said it Ed. The thing with the Keys is there is only one way out by car. Now by boat......you got options there.

[otowntiger]

Quote from Gatorcane: "As I said in my earlier posts, I get the feeling the Southern FL peninsula may just get out of the cone by this weekend sometime with these huge shifts left in the track..."

You may be right. Check out Derk Ortts newest forecast. It is a HUGE shift south, but mostly west. He looks to have it headed to the western panhandle/Ala. I still think S. FL is definitely not out of the woods, but it certainly looking better and better. These are the biggest single day shifts I've seen in the models and forecasts in one day for any storm. This morning I was thinking it would miss us to the east to as early as this afternoon seeing model evidence that it'd miss us to the south. Talk about a HUUGE shift in a very short time.

[Chino]

I am thinking skimming the N coast of Cuba or bodily over....current trends may be overcompensating a bit....we'll see if they come back N some.

[BOPPA]

OK my curiosity is up- been away for a couple of hours, and a couple of post mention Fl. being out of the cone (possibly)
during the weekend - - - - what's going on with that ?

I thought the cone was hundreds of miles wide just a few
hours ago.

Thanks

[gatorcane]

As I said in my earlier posts, I get the feeling the Southern FL peninsula may just get out of the cone by this weekend sometime with these huge shifts left in the track...

You may be right. Check out Derk Ortts newest forecast. It is a HUGE shift south, but mostly west. He looks to have it headed to the western panhandle/Ala. I still think S. FL is definitely not out of the woods, but it certainly looking better and better. These are the biggest single day shifts I've seen in the models and forecasts in one day for any storm. This morning I was thinking it would miss us to the east to as early as this afternoon seeing model evidence that it'd miss us to the south. Talk about a HUUGE shift in a very short time.

the shifts were HUGE, I was not expecting such huge shifts to the west that is for sure.

[Dean4Storms]

oy, I just read about the evac for the keys. Didn't think that it would happen this early, but it is the right call.

Only one way out, and nowhere to hide on the Keys. (Never been there, but seen pictures) Ten needless evacuations from the Keys would be cheaper than one evacuation that turned out to be needed but wasn't ordered. Thousands of lives cheaper.

But you know law enforcement and other officials and emergency personnel will have to ride this out and that would not be a fun ride if they get in that northern eyewall.

[sweetpea]

Once again, we will get a better idea when the NOAA plane investigates Ike's surroundings. I remember just a week ago the models were showing Hanna almost over Florida but after the NOAA plane investigated the surroundings, the models agreed on the track that Hanna has taken, which has been much farther east.

I think a lot of people are calling a won war for Florida when the war is not over yet.

They keep calling for the war to be over, but seem to be forgetting about the keys. It seems that no matter what this does, the keys are going to get hit pretty hard.

[StJoe]

I think its a day premature to evacuate the Keys especially if the models keep shifting west. Wait until Sunday at least.If people evacuate and S FL is no longer in the cone the next time no one will evacuate for the next threat.

From the Keys visitor website:

Initiating protective actions Friday to ensure safety of life and property due to possible impacts from Hurricane Ike, Florida Keys officials ordered a mandatory visitor evacuation, officially beginning at 9 a.m. Saturday.
All visitors are asked to calmly leave the Keys beginning early Saturday morning.

Travelers with plans to visit the Keys now through next Wednesday must postpone trips until the storm is clear of the region and officials give an "all-clear" for visitors to return.

Updates following the storm will be posted on the Keys Web site to provide detailed information regarding the status of the Keys tourism infrastructure.

Emergency officials are set to begin a phased, mandatory evacuation for all residents beginning Sunday at 8 a.m. Times and regions are as follows: Lower Keys and Key West: 8 a.m.; Middle Keys including Marathon: Noon; Upper Keys including Key Largo, Islamorada and mainland Monroe County: 4 p.m.

The evacuations are to continue through Monday at noon, well prior to the current forecast’s arrival of tropical storm force winds arriving in the Keys Monday evening.

“The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and Key West weather office are cautioning that a portion of the Keys may be impacted by a major hurricane,” said Keys Emergency Management Director Irene Toner. “Because of our unique geography and the possibility that other Florida counties may also be ordering evacuations, it is important for residents and visitors to heed our advice.”

[AtlanticWind]

Ike seems to be coming a little unglued on the few Sat pics.

[terrapintransit]

Looking more and more like he wants to take a swim in the warm waters of the GOM......But then again maybe these model runs are high.........

[gtalum]

NHC is running late with the 11 pm advisory. They must be considering a big shift to follow the models.

[El Nino]

Derek Ortt's forecast is scary Almost no interaction and a 125 kts storm towards Central GOM !

[Sabanic]

Derek Ortt's forecast is scary Almost no interaction and a 125 kts storm towards Central GOM !

Saw that. Don't need anything close to what Derek has posted right now.

[Dean4Storms]

Can you imagine if they have to evacuate NO again???

[Ixolib]

I think its a day premature to evacuate the Keys especially if the models keep shifting west. Wait until Sunday at least.If people evacuate and S FL is no longer in the cone the next time no one will evacuate for the next threat.

I'm thinking the folks in the Keys are pretty much used to this... I mean, they've certainly evacuated before for what ended up being little or no reason and I'd imagine they'll do it again. It's just part of life there and I'm thinking most of the residents there simply go through the motions as necessary. Sometimes evacuation there was for good reason and other times it turned out the opposite. But I think the drill will continue to be the same in that part of FL for the foreseeable future.

That said, this storm is still well east & south of the mainland, the Keys, and the Straits. If this were a "normal tracker" (if there is such a thing), I doubt anyone would be saying there's not going to be a problem there, or all clear, or anything similar. Its latitude and longitude dictates that the Keys Officials do whatever they need to do to ensure every possibility is taken into account - including evacuation - regardless of the modeling......... Otherwise, the result could be one of hugely negative proportion...

[Evil Jeremy]

AT 1100 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It's doubtful, Ike is not coming to South Florida, albeit it is in cone somehow...

Here's an excerpt from the discussion, in actuality the cone can be much further South and West but by the 5AM advisory it should be...

IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.

[cycloneye]

[AZRainman]

Older wind field map:

[Dean4Storms]

NHC to coast of Cuba and a bit further west in SE GOM.