ATL: IRENE - Models

[gatorcane]

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_850_loop.gif

What model is this?

Whatever it is, notice how it has it going south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Looks stale.

[brunota2003]

Looks like the 00Z Sun, Aug 21 run of the GFS

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z NAM at 72 hours:

[fci]

The GFDL's solution seems to take into account the "Hispaniola Effect"...after the system crosses the length of Hispaniola, it temporarily weakens and turns back to the west or even WSW...it then takes about a day to restrengthen...after that, it turns back to the NW, just like the other models...it just makes the turn about 200 miles farther to the west.

Do any of the models take into account "the hispaniola effect"? I didn't think they did.

Is there really such a thing as "the hispaniola effect"??

[jpigott]

00Z NAM at 72 hours:

That looks south and west of previous NAM runs

[Kohlecane]

The GFDL's solution seems to take into account the "Hispaniola Effect"...after the system crosses the length of Hispaniola, it temporarily weakens and turns back to the west or even WSW...it then takes about a day to restrengthen...after that, it turns back to the NW, just like the other models...it just makes the turn about 200 miles farther to the west.

Do any of the models take into account "the hispaniola effect"? I didn't think they did.

Is there really such a thing as "the hispaniola effect"??

Ha is there, sounds plausible but idk either

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z NAM shows a pretty strong ridge at 81 hours.....

[Vortex]

00Z NAM further west(still updating)...H+72 northern coast of cuba looks like it might be gulf bound



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[SouthDadeFish]

In my opinion the NAM has a very plausible solution for a storm that moves over Hispaniola.

[TwisterFanatic]

00Z NAM shows a pretty strong ridge at 81 hours.....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

That might be important soon enough, the NAM is pretty decent the with Ridges and Troughs.

[gatorcane]

hmmm beginning if a westward shift? Ridge looks stronger....

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z NAM shows a pretty strong ridge at 81 hours.....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... ort_ht.gif

That might be important soon enough, the NAM is pretty decent the with Ridges and Troughs.

Exactly. Wondering if this is the start of a trend on the 00Z suite. Don't follow the NAM for cyclogenesis, but when it comes to trough and ridge evolution I think it does a good job.

[gatorcane]

Approaching the keys.....

[SouthFLTropics]

The general thinking since LAST SUNDAY has been somewhere between the panhandle of Florida and the Outer Banks of NC. If you run the line right down the middle you basically get a hit on the spine of the peninsula. Over the years I've watched the models swing west, swing east, swing west, swing east and then finally settle on a solution right in the middle. I think we will probably see the models trend back west again over the next day or so.

Aric posted a graphic quite some time ago about the general "strike zone" area and I think the models are just windshield wiping left to right and back again and honing on a solution. I still say anyone from the West Coast of Florida up to the Outer Banks needs to be watching closely. Just my .02 worth.

SFT

[SeminoleWind]

i know the NAM is not the greatest Tropical model but you can look at it for info on the pattern and it says stronger ridge for sure here.

[Vortex]

H+84 florida straights with ridging to the N....looks gulf bound



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[chrisnnavarre]

The GFDL's solution seems to take into account the "Hispaniola Effect"...after the system crosses the length of Hispaniola, it temporarily weakens and turns back to the west or even WSW...it then takes about a day to restrengthen...after that, it turns back to the NW, just like the other models...it just makes the turn about 200 miles farther to the west.

Do any of the models take into account "the hispaniola effect"? I didn't think they did.

Is there really such a thing as "the hispaniola effect"??

We'll they don't exactly call it the "Hispaniola Effect" however this document should explain what he's talking about...

http://academic.uprm.edu/accam/mark/pdf%20documents/ComphurriaffectingPR.pdf

[StormTracker]

I'm thinking the same thing guys! Maybe the other models are picking up on the the "Hispanola(Hispaniola) Effect"! Where's Aric when we need him?

[stormreader]

H+84 florida straights with ridging to the N....looks gulf bound



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Could be. And with that ridging to the north a trek into the GOM might find the storm slowing some and wobbling off a little further west there than expected. I think an entrance into the E GOM might find the storm wobbling off toward the Fl-Al border area near Gulf Shores (increased ridging). There's a natural weakness there between a strenghthening Atlantic Ridge (assuming the trough fails) and the strong high over Texas. Just a thought. If this GFDL scenario into the GOM plays out. Just an amateur here.

[SeminoleWind]

00Z GFS running soon this should be fun, will it flip flop?