ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2901 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:33 am

TheStormExpert wrote:12z Model Guidance.

Image

Image

06z GEFS Ensembles.

Image


so what happened with the idea of the gfs weaking that ridge...the ridge is stronger than ever in the latest runs...the euro has been consistent with the idea, the hwrf is now locking on...24 hours from now i bet we have consistency..remember, error rates at 5 days are in the hundreds of miles...for sofla we will be at 2-3 days out tomorrow and then it becomes an intensity forecast and that will be very difficult due to the potential
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2902 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:01 am

TheStormExpert wrote:12z Model Guidance.

Image

Image

06z GEFS Ensembles.

Image


Pretty large westward shift in the models here. Wouldn't doubt it if they came back east again. Windshield wiper effect until we can a better grip on the overall steering overhead.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2903 Postby stormwise » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:05 am

EC00z
https://i.imgsafe.org/efa1a0d719.png

https://i.imgsafe.org/efac0318b6.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2904 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:31 am

So based on the model directional outcome, this could be a weak storm moving through Florida, or a potential major hurricane in the Gulf if it misses Florida. Definitely interesting days ahead
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2905 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:35 am

 https://twitter.com/ChrisLandsea/status/768817084608483328




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768819017695932416


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2906 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:41 am



its all about the ridge per their plan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2907 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:42 am

Great news, should get some good data for the model runs this evening! Does anyone know if the mission that started at 2am have sent any data to the models?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2908 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:47 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Great news, should get some good data for the model runs this evening! Does anyone know if the mission that started at 2am have sent any data to the models?

I done believe the low level invest missions had data entered into the models.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2909 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:50 am

 https://twitter.com/MikeWDross/status/768820537246318592


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2910 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:04 am

Fwiw, the 12z NAM has what appears to be a Tropical Storm making landfall in South Florida in 84hrs or

Image


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2911 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:06 am

12Z NAM landfall S.Fla in 78 hours

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016082512&fh=78&xpos=0&ypos=300
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2912 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:07 am

99L moving at modest clip near NW and about to cross 72W... HWRF has 99L in Keys @90hrs... Serious slow down going to need to occur soon...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2913 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:10 am

Blown Away wrote:99L moving at modest clip near NW and about to cross 72W... HWRF has 99L in Keys @90hrs... Serious slow down going to need to occur soon...


Are you seeing a NW heading or more of a westerly heading. It looked to me to be more west without a northerly component. The ridge to the north is very stout.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2914 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:11 am

Can you all move these kinds of discussions to the discussion thread please? Thanks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2915 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:30 am

12z GFS +12hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2916 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:35 am

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/768832881422577665


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2917 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:46 am

12Z GFS a complete weak mess at 54 hours in the lower bahamas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2918 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:47 am

GFS continues to be unimpressed with 99L at 54 hours...

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2919 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:54 am

GFS seems to be a little faster this run. Already past the straight at 78 hours. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#2920 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:56 am

GFS at 78 hours...Vorticity elongated east to west...

Image
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