ATL: IRMA - Models

[blp]

Just a reminder 91l (Pre-Harvey) Long Range models. Look at what the models did in the long range. A lot of things happened after that run. We cannot take these runs seriously yet past 7 days.

Pre Harvey GFS 00Z Aug 13: 


Pre-Harvey ECMWF 00Z Aug 13: 

[sponger]

This would make such a beautiful swell producing fish storm. Unless that ridge slows its West movement, someone will get hurt by this. Models continue to insist on strong ridging and that is not good for the US.

[clipper35]

I think we all should sit back and wait for recon input Sunday. I believe we will get a better clue on what Irma may do.

[hohnywx]

Looks like the hard wsw dive is beginning now. Eye is also starting to clear some too. Looks annular to me.

From AJC in the other thread:

By definition, it's not even close, since the eye is indistinct. Remember, an annulus is a ring, and an annular hurricane is ring or donut-shaped, and usually characterized by large eyes. This is why they are oftoen affectionately referred to by folks in the field as "truck tires". So, even though, the peripheral convective banding is limited with Irma right now, this is in no way an annular hurricane.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here is todays NAO forecast update. As you can see, just about every single little red forecast line is in positive territory from now through Sept16th. It is rare to see such forecast agreement two weeks out...and yet models like the GFS have the trough lifting Irma north going into the mid atlantic states. I thought that positive NAO events mean more east coast ridging.

This brings up an important question. Is the positive or negative NAO thing over hyped as it comes to hurricanes approaching the US coast??


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[AxaltaRacing24]

12Z GFS int

[weathaguyry]

Slightly SW of 6z, and ridging is a tad weaker at 12 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090212/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_3.png

[weathaguyry]

Stronger, and still SW of 6z at 18 hours

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090212/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_4.png

[Hurricane Andrew]

7mb weaker at HR18...interesting.

[weathaguyry]

A little weaker, and a little tad SW of 6z at 30hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090212/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_6.png

[AxaltaRacing24]

More south and a TINY bit faster

[weathaguyry]

Weaker and a tad west at 42 hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090212/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_8.png

[Hurricane Andrew]

13mb weaker at HR36...start of a trend, perhaps? We will see.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Weaker and a tad west at 42 hrs

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090212/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_8.png

Upload that link to imgur. Then click copy image address on the imgur image.

[weathaguyry]

947mbs at 48 hrs, now stronger and in about the same location as 6z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090212/gfs_pres_wind_atltropics_9.png

[SouthFLTropics]

[Hurricane Andrew]

13mb weaker at HR36...start of a trend, perhaps? We will see.

I retract this...now 4mb stranger at HR48.

[AxaltaRacing24]

3mb stronger and more south than 12z

[weathaguyry]

54 hrs

[weathaguyry]

60 hours