ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Laser30033003]

Elsa looks like a TS too me....I dont think its going to fizzle...It will get knocked down some by Cuba...But I think she will be back to a strong TS when she hits Florida

[toad strangler]

Remember Hurricane Francis stalled for a few days near Nassau. Two days later came into Miami as a minor tropical storm.

Do you mean Frances circa 2004? That landfalled on the Treasure Coast as a very slow moving Cat 2 hurricane?

[Hurricane Mike]

I've never been more impressed by a system with such a high pressure.

[psyclone]

It does "look" impressive. Fake it til ya make it? We've seen this before where once everyone throws in the towel the miracle comeback commences. Lots of convection spinning over warm water means...keep checking back. things can change

[Sanibel]

Though weak, Elsa has tendencies like maintaining good structure and appearance that have been seen in other storms that re-generate...There is a lack of good model data right now when it is needed most...

Perhaps there is a lack of supporting tropical conditions for serious regeneration?...

[Cat5James]

It does "look" impressive. Fake it til ya make it? We've seen this before where once everyone throws in the towel the miracle comeback commences. Lots of convection spinning over warm water means...keep checking back. things can change

Everyone gave up on Elsa early yesterday and then by the evening convection was blowing up back and most were back on board.... the "windshield wiper effect" applies to more then just the models apparently.

[cane5]

Remember Hurricane Francis stalled for a few days near Nassau. Two days later came into Miami as a minor tropical storm.

Do you mean Frances circa 2004? That landfalled on the Treasure Coast as a very slow moving Cat 2 hurricane?

Actually your right but it was supposed to be stronger in Miami. Anyway that stall was something I had never seen happen.

[HurricaneBelle]

It does "look" impressive. Fake it til ya make it? We've seen this before where once everyone throws in the towel the miracle comeback commences. Lots of convection spinning over warm water means...keep checking back. things can change

Everyone gave up on Elsa early yesterday and then by the evening convection was blowing up back and most were back on board.... the "windshield wiper effect" applies to more then just the models apparently.

S2K posters truly can be a manic-depressive lot.

[skyline385]

Remember Hurricane Francis stalled for a few days near Nassau. Two days later came into Miami as a minor tropical storm.

Do you mean Frances circa 2004? That landfalled on the Treasure Coast as a very slow moving Cat 2 hurricane?

Actually your right but it was supposed to be stronger in Miami. Anyway that stall was something I had never seen happen.

Looking at its landfalling radar on wiki, most of the winds were on the north for Francis, the south wall was pretty weak so it probably ended up being just TS winds for Miami. Anyways, Dorian also did the same so I wouldnt call it that rare.

[eastcoastFL]

Do you mean Frances circa 2004? That landfalled on the Treasure Coast as a very slow moving Cat 2 hurricane?

Actually your right but it was supposed to be stronger in Miami. Anyway that stall was something I had never seen happen.

Looking at its landfalling radar on wiki, most of the winds were on the north for Francis, the south wall was pretty weak so it probably ended up being just TS winds for Miami. Anyways, Dorian also did the same so I wouldnt call it that rare.

Frances was pretty bad for palm beach and the treasure coast. Especially how slow moving it was. Gave us a good beating.

[Hurricane Mike]

12pm Video Update on Elsa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4YYU1EClt4

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Lots of poles down in Barbados
Over 800 roofs gone
And 10s of houses collapsed
This is after initial assessment.
I’m in the south of the island and we still have no electricity.

Anyone know what the maximum wind speeds experienced in Barbados were

[skyline385]

Actually your right but it was supposed to be stronger in Miami. Anyway that stall was something I had never seen happen.

Looking at its landfalling radar on wiki, most of the winds were on the north for Francis, the south wall was pretty weak so it probably ended up being just TS winds for Miami. Anyways, Dorian also did the same so I wouldnt call it that rare.

Frances was pretty bad for palm beach and the treasure coast. Especially how slow moving it was. Gave us a good beating.

Yea I only moved here in 2017 but my boss told me that the place I was renting at was completely destroyed by Frances and Jeanne in 2004...

[cane5]

Remember Hurricane Francis stalled for a few days near Nassau. Two days later came into Miami as a minor tropical storm.

Do you mean Frances circa 2004? That landfalled on the Treasure Coast as a very slow moving Cat 2 hurricane?

Sorry your correct but it stalled for 2 days was supposed to hit Miami but changed direction when it got going again.

[Sanibel]

I just looked at Mike's video and it tells me the center jumps may have been inaccurate and the center is clearly where Mike has it on his radar loop...It has the core clear of both Cuba and Jamaica and is in the middle of the channel between them...

I don't like the look of the convection and structure and it is crying out strong regeneration...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Aric Dunn]

Since the one radar that is very close has so much ground clutter I had to switch to a radar a little farther away.

the MLC ( and likely llc not to far off) is clear enough. motion looks to just clip the end of cuba there. or stay over water .. unless it wobbles more to the right.

[cane5]

Do you mean Frances circa 2004? That landfalled on the Treasure Coast as a very slow moving Cat 2 hurricane?

Actually your right but it was supposed to be stronger in Miami. Anyway that stall was something I had never seen happen.

Francis literally stalled for two days truly unprecedented when the forecast was for it to come in just hours away.
Looking at its landfalling radar on wiki, most of the winds were on the north for Francis, the south wall was pretty weak so it probably ended up being just TS winds for Miami. Anyways, Dorian also did the same so I wouldnt call it that rare.

[Sanibel]

Does the clipping of the toe of Cuba there mean a more east track and track towards the west coast of Florida?...

[Category5Kaiju]

Since the one radar that is very close has so much ground clutter I had to switch to a radar a little farther away.

the MLC ( and likely llc not to far off) is clear enough. motion looks to just clip the end of cuba there. or stay over water .. unless it wobbles more to the right.

https://i.ibb.co/199VwYW/ezgif-com-gif-maker-36.gif

https://i.ibb.co/MCd3q71/Capture.png

Close call indeed.

[SconnieCane]

Elsa is all bark no bite. This storm could have an eye on IR and still drop down to 55mph.

So maybe HWRF wasn't wrong with its sim IR prognostications, it's just that what looked like a Cat 4 on there actually has the winds of a strong TS!