NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[PavelGaborik10]

Don't think you can say Jamaica had better building standards than Florida had before Andrew. So much of the area where Melissa made land fall was a very poor area not including the large resorts. Just my opinion.

I think you're really underestimating just how different things were 30+ years ago.

Most of the houses worst impacted were wood-frame or unreinforced concrete block with light roof tie-downs, even none at all.

Roofs were often attached with nails instead of hurricane straps.

[edu2703]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983746411142509004

[ljmac75]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983746411142509004

Josh always delivers the goods. Or maybe the bads. That's kind of insane for not being the peak of the storm.

[CrazyC83]

Seeing CDG cloud tops at 25N is quite remarkable too. That doesn't happen very often. That also makes me question the thought that the 90% rule doesn't apply - often that is with a sprawling RMW and lesser convection (think Erin when it was off the east coast). I'd probably go with 95 kt for the current intensity.

[CrazyC83]

This is UNOFFICIAL, but here is how - up to now - I would update the BT for Melissa, adding the post-Jamaica track. A full explanation will come after becoming ET. That said, two landfalls in the Bahamas have been added on Long Island and San Salvador Island.

AL132025, MELISSA, xx,
20251020, 1200, , LO, 13.5N, 66.5W, 30, 1008,
20251020, 1800, , LO, 13.7N, 67.7W, 35, 1006,
20251021, 0000, , LO, 13.9N, 68.9W, 35, 1005,
20251021, 0600, , LO, 14.1N, 70.1W, 40, 1004,
20251021, 1200, , LO, 14.1N, 71.3W, 40, 1003,
20251021, 1800, , LO, 14.1N, 72.5W, 40, 1002,
20251022, 0000, , TS, 14.1N, 73.2W, 45, 1002,
20251022, 0600, , TS, 14.2N, 73.4W, 45, 1001,
20251022, 1200, , TS, 14.3N, 73.6W, 45, 1000,
20251022, 1800, , TS, 14.4N, 73.9W, 40, 1002,
20251023, 0000, , TS, 14.6N, 74.3W, 40, 1004,
20251023, 0600, , TS, 14.8N, 74.6W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1200, , TS, 15.2N, 75.0W, 35, 1005,
20251023, 1800, , TS, 15.5N, 75.3W, 40, 1002,
20251024, 0000, , TS, 15.7N, 75.6W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 0600, , TS, 16.0N, 75.3W, 40, 1001,
20251024, 1200, , TS, 15.8N, 74.9W, 45, 1000,
20251024, 1800, , TS, 15.8N, 74.5W, 50, 996,
20251025, 0000, , TS, 16.1N, 74.7W, 55, 993,
20251025, 0600, , TS, 16.3N, 74.9W, 60, 986,
20251025, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 75.1W, 65, 983,
20251025, 1800, , HU, 16.5N, 75.3W, 70, 977,
20251026, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 75.7W, 85, 970,
20251026, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 76.0W, 100, 957,
20251026, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 76.4W, 110, 952,
20251026, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 76.9W, 120, 944,
20251027, 0000, , HU, 16.4N, 77.3W, 130, 932,
20251027, 0600, , HU, 16.3N, 77.7W, 135, 922,
20251027, 1200, , HU, 16.4N, 78.0W, 145, 913,
20251027, 1800, , HU, 16.4N, 78.3W, 155, 906,
20251028, 0000, , HU, 16.5N, 78.6W, 155, 905,
20251028, 0600, , HU, 16.9N, 78.4W, 155, 900,
20251028, 1200, , HU, 17.5N, 78.1W, 165, 894,
20251028, 1400, I, HU, 17.7N, 78.0W, 170, 892,
20251028, 1700, L, HU, 18.1N, 78.0W, 160, 897,
20251028, 1800, , HU, 18.2N, 77.9W, 140, 910,
20251028, 2200, R, HU, 18.7N, 77.4W, 95, 955,
20251029, 0000, , HU, 18.9N, 77.2W, 100, 954,
20251029, 0600, , HU, 19.8N, 76.3W, 105, 951,
20251029, 0715, L, HU, 20.0N, 76.1W, 105, 950,
20251029, 1200, , HU, 20.9N, 75.8W, 75, 972,
20251029, 1800, , HU, 22.1N, 75.3W, 80, 974,
20251029, 2130, L, HU, 22.5N, 75.0W, 85, 971,
20251030, 0000, , HU, 23.5N, 74.8W, 90, 969,
20251030, 0200, L, HU, 24.0N, 74.5W, 90, 967,

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4175/P7rLlR.gif

Melissa refuses to die or even give in...CDG cloud tops in a more marginal environment is remarkable.

[cheezyWXguy]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/4175/P7rLlR.gif

Melissa refuses to die or even give in...CDG cloud tops in a more marginal environment is remarkable.

Agreed, it continues to persist. I just noticed that revolving towers are starting to appear again in the nw and se quadrants of the core, or what remains of it at least.

[LarryWx]

For much of the time hurricane force winds extended outward only 30 miles. Now it is up to 60 while TS force extend about the same as they’ve been.

From NHC 11PM advisory:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1983733755249619239

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/FerragamoWx/status/1983761227693060465

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1983741901879833084

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/tornadartz/status/1983440412686856282

[GCANE]

Looks like she will be cut off from High TPW Air due to the mountains of Hispaniola.
Intensification may be minimal from here on out.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/foxweather/status/1983624883587444759

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1983682413764214854

[Nimbus]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983746411142509004

Josh always delivers the goods. Or maybe the bads. That's kind of insane for not being the peak of the storm.

The place he was staying is reinforced concrete with heavy doors.
That palm tree looks like ~100 mph winds just before landfall, hasn't lost all its fronds so he bolted the door at cat2.

https://www.bedroomvillas.com/property/ ... C-13175609

[GCANE]

Marginal Cat 3

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 114kts (~ 131.2mph) which was observed 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the SE (131°) from the flight level center at 10:32:00Z

[Kazmit]

Marginal Cat 3

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 114kts (~ 131.2mph) which was observed 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the SE (131°) from the flight level center at 10:32:00Z

We’d be in trouble if it hadn’t been consistently west of the forecast the past few days.

[GCANE]

Marginal Cat 3

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 114kts (~ 131.2mph) which was observed 38 nautical miles (44 statute miles) to the SE (131°) from the flight level center at 10:32:00Z

We’d be in trouble if it hadn’t been consistently west of the forecast the past few days.

Shear vector is SW to NE. So, heaviest convection is east of the CoC.
Looks like you will get some heavy weather out of this.
Stay safe.