Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Stratton23]

a 4 day winter storm on that GFS run, that is insane , ive never seen that

[snownado]

What a weird run (12z GFS).

DFW doesn't finally change over to snow until early Sunday morning, but eventually still ends up grinding out 6"+ of steady light/moderate snow over a 24-36 hour period.

[txtwister78]

Get ready for the incredible hulk of models...CMC. Already living up to that in the 12z run incoming.

[bigddstranny]

Hi folks. It's been a while since I've visited. Happy to see that the regular cast of characters are still around.

Question. My wife and our daughter are supposed to have over from Cedar Park to The Woodlands for a youth soccer tournament on Friday. Games on Saturday and Sunday. Many teams arriving from DFW.

Odds of the tournament happening in y'all's opinion?

[Brent]

Get ready for the incredible hulk of models...CMC. Already living up to that in the 12z run incoming.

Love the good ole Canadian

[Stratton23]

Id say they definitely are getting canceled

[txtwister78]

Hi folks. It's been a while since I've visited. Happy to see that the regular cast of characters are still around.

Question. My wife and our daughter are supposed to have over from Cedar Park to The Woodlands for a youth soccer tournament on Friday. Games on Saturday and Sunday. Many teams arriving from DFW.

Odds of the tournament happening in y'all's opinion?

I would say zero and welcome back

[snownado]

Get ready for the incredible hulk of models...CMC. Already living up to that in the 12z run incoming.

It is a bit further south and weaker, but also a bit colder (still a sleet fest verbatim for DFW though).

[Quixotic]

My son’s team has already withdrawn from a tournament this weekend.

[Nederlander]

Hi folks. It's been a while since I've visited. Happy to see that the regular cast of characters are still around.

Question. My wife and our daughter are supposed to have over from Cedar Park to The Woodlands for a youth soccer tournament on Friday. Games on Saturday and Sunday. Many teams arriving from DFW.

Odds of the tournament happening in y'all's opinion?

No chance it’s happening.. even if it was, I would never in a million years suggest being on the roads this weekend

[snownado]

Unless the 12z EURO indicates otherwise, the 00z runs are likely the ceiling for this event QPF-wise.

[Ntxw]

GFS qpf trend.

[bigddstranny]

Hi folks. It's been a while since I've visited. Happy to see that the regular cast of characters are still around.

Question. My wife and our daughter are supposed to have over from Cedar Park to The Woodlands for a youth soccer tournament on Friday. Games on Saturday and Sunday. Many teams arriving from DFW.

Odds of the tournament happening in y'all's opinion?

I would say zero and welcome back

Good to be back.

That's kind of what I was thinking. The tourney coordinator still seems to think they can play the Saturday games, but I don't think they're accounting for teams that are traveling.

Plus, I think it's ridiculous to have 10 year olds out in that weather.

[TheAustinMan]

That 12Z GFS run is an interesting one. With the southwestern trough dropping way south and hanging out over the Baja for longer, instead of phasing with the longwave trough and pushing through as one main event. The end result is a prolonged unwinding of moisture via the trough like unspooling a ball of yarn. Not to mention, the 12Z GFS had some sort of hybrid tropical system in the EPAC helping to feed all this. Friday looks like a pivotal day -- will the shortwave quickly join the rest of the upper-level flow or not?

Z500, p-type, and integrated vapor transport. Source: PolarWx.com

[bubba hotep]

Oh my

[Snowman67]

NWS Hou/Galv now showing a low of 23F for Tomball Saturday night with a 50% of freezing rain. Definitely trending colder further South and East.

[HockeyTx82]

Oh my

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2026012012/144/snku_acc-imp.us_sc.png

Well 1ft of snow for me that run, nice knowing you all.

I do plan on live streaming unless I lose power. I'll post the link once the show starts.

[Brazoria979cnty]

NWS Hou/Galv now showing a low of 23F for Tomball Saturday night with a 50% of freezing rain. Definitely trending colder further South and East.

Low of 28 here with 50% freezing rain also..then Sunday its says partly sunny? Not sure where they get that from

[rwfromkansas]

Just wanted to highlight the very unusual overlap between moisture and cold air this weekend. Typically, abnormal amounts of moisture in the wintertime are associated with unseasonable warmth. Certainly not so in this case.

The NAEFS (the combination of GEFS and GEPS) mean precipitable water and integrated vapor transport this Saturday exceeds the 90th percentile of climatology for this time of year while also showing subfreezing temperatures across much of the northern half of Texas. In addition, the GEFS mean PWAT exceeds the ensemble's own reanalyzed climatology in some spots, so that means GEFS is modeling more moisture for this time of year than it would have for any other mid-January/early-February in its 1985-2012 climatology window.

Late January and early February is typically the driest part of the year when considering the whole troposphere over Texas (see the SPC sounding climatology). To be getting PWAT values of 0.75" to an 1" during an Arctic air outbreak... values which would be average in March and April... is remarkable.

https://i.imgur.com/RmrXES7.png

Interesting stuff. Update us on the NW Canadian ridging tomorrow lol

[txtwister78]

GFS does have support from its ensemble with a slower ejection of the upper low/trough and thus a longer duration of frozen precip.