NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[kevin]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983746411142509004

That's some insane footage for not being during 'peak' winds. The more footage I see of Melissa during landfall and the damage afterwards, the more I'm convinced that it tied or surpassed Allen as the strongest landfall in the Atlantic in terms of wind speed. An upgrade to 165 - 170 kt in post-season analysis is definitely on the table imo.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

 https://x.com/weatherdak/status/1983629157381894297

AAAAAGH!
I find these so unsettling to watch…they look…wrong to me. Almost alive and writhing in there.
This is also how I felt seeing the eyewall mesovortices of Harvey…which is why when I drew him making landfall I significantly toned them down

[AnnularCane]

 https://x.com/weatherdak/status/1983629157381894297

AAAAAGH!
I find these so unsettling to watch…they look…wrong to me. Almost alive and writhing in there.
This is also how I felt seeing the eyewall mesovortices of Harvey…which is why when I drew him making landfall I significantly toned them down

I think it looks like the inside of a washing machine.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/WeatherNation/status/1983866725104832550

[Teban54]

Trying to close off a full eyewall again:

[Kazmit]

Definitely a MH again- don't know why the NHC didn't upgrade it at 8am.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Well-defined eye, definitely a category 3 now which is restrengthening as most of the models predicted. Will pass to the northwest of Bermuda, but strongest winds are in the southeastern quadrant. Most models still keep the strongest winds offshore but not as far offshore as the center. There is a small chance we could see Cat 3 winds on the island.

[sasha_B]

2025OCT30 134020 6.2 932.2 119.8 5.4 5.8 7.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG OFF OFF 3.25 -74.04 EYE 11 IR 40.7 27.26 71.90 ARCHER GOES19 32.0

Melissa truly refuses to give up. The eye was already beginning to clear out between 06z and 09z this morning; if she wasn't a Category 3 then, it seems very probable that she is now.

[tolakram]

Definitely a MH again- don't know why the NHC didn't upgrade it at 8am.

Email them and ask.

[GCANE]

CDO has done a complete 360-dgree wrap around with ragged eye formed.
If this isn't a major, I don't know what is.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I expect they'll go 100 kts/960mbar at the update shortly

[cycloneye]

I expect they'll go 100 kts/960mbar at the update shortly

Not up there.

1500 UTC THU OCT 30 2025

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 71.7W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 65SE 30SW 20NW.

[InfernoFlameCat]

They kept it at 90 knots…

[sasha_B]

They kept it at 90 knots…

There'll be an explanation in the discussion, but it's possible that they're excluding the ADT estimates due to how consistently high they've been running, and without more recent recon obs. or a subjective fix at T5.5 or higher (it was T4.0 at 12z), they don't consider the data sufficient to justify any upgrades.

[Kazmit]

How do 113 kt flight-level winds translate to 90 kts at the surface? Not to mention the improved satellite appearance since the plane left.

[Teban54]

Ironically, Melissa's appearance started degrading immediately after the advisory.

[aspen]

How do 113 kt flight-level winds translate to 90 kts at the surface? Not to mention the improved satellite appearance since the plane left.

Recurving, somewhat disheveled systems influenced by a trough like this tend to have worse FL-to-surface conversion rates. I remember something similar with either Humberto ‘19 or Isaias ‘20.

[Kazmit]

How do 113 kt flight-level winds translate to 90 kts at the surface? Not to mention the improved satellite appearance since the plane left.

Recurving, somewhat disheveled systems influenced by a trough like this tend to have worse FL-to-surface conversion rates. I remember something similar with either Humberto ‘19 or Isaias ‘20.

Humberto ‘19 actually developed a sting jet that made it more powerful than it otherwise would have been.

[Nimbus]

How do 113 kt flight-level winds translate to 90 kts at the surface? Not to mention the improved satellite appearance since the plane left.

Recurving, somewhat disheveled systems influenced by a trough like this tend to have worse FL-to-surface conversion rates. I remember something similar with either Humberto ‘19 or Isaias ‘20.

Starting to get a little drier air undercutting the circulation but hasn't brought the flight level winds down as much as I thought it would. I was thinking Bermuda might see 75 knot winds at the most by landfall.

[LarryWx]

For anyone interested, here’s an updated stormchaser Jeff P. (with his host) livestream link from Ground Zero. This is from decimated Black River on the coast. Jeff was just saying they need helicopters there ASAP because there are a whole lot of folks who are injured and need to be airlifted to a hospital.
Edit: He just quoted a Reuters reports saying this is a “humanitarian crisis”:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eXN7D6JdSPI