ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

In recent days a mountain torque event is occuring. Look for the MJO to return towards the Pacific in the coming weeks.

[cycloneye]

In recent days a mountain torque event is occuring. Look for the MJO to return towards the Pacific in the coming weeks.

Here is the latest.

[cycloneye]

The SOI continues very positive. Let's see what impact the expected MJO pulse may affect it to have go down like a tumble or despite that,it not cross to negative.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 4/29/13 update

Nino 3.4 is the same as last week. (-0.1C)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

On cue there is a consensus that the MJO will be sparked in the IO once the weak kelvin wave currently progressing near Africa arrives. The recent MT event was not all that strong or long lasting so we will have to see how far east the MJO progresses once it is reborn. It's starting to get late into the spring transition and yet no clear sign of anything other than neutral. PDO will be key the next month or two to see which side of the 0c line the Pacific favors.

[cycloneye]

On cue there is a consensus that the MJO will be sparked in the IO once the weak kelvin wave currently progressing near Africa arrives. The recent MT event was not all that strong or long lasting so we will have to see how far east the MJO progresses once it is reborn. It's starting to get late into the spring transition and yet no clear sign of anything other than neutral. PDO will be key the next month or two to see which side of the 0c line the Pacific favors.

http://i44.tinypic.com/kna61.gif

What does it mean about the PDO being on a side of the 0C line?

[weatherwindow]

On cue there is a consensus that the MJO will be sparked in the IO once the weak kelvin wave currently progressing near Africa arrives. The recent MT event was not all that strong or long lasting so we will have to see how far east the MJO progresses once it is reborn. It's starting to get late into the spring transition and yet no clear sign of anything other than neutral. PDO will be key the next month or two to see which side of the 0c line the Pacific favors.

http://i44.tinypic.com/kna61.gif

What does it mean about the PDO being on a side of the 0C line?

Luis, confused me too....he is referring to the 0deg Centigrade line ie warm or cool, referring to ENSO

[Ntxw]

What does it mean about the PDO being on a side of the 0C line?

If the PDO will help will lean SST's toward warm-neutral or cold-neutral, there are different sets of analogs for both fall/winter outlook as well as tropical season. CFSv2 hasn't really helped bouncing back and forth.

[cycloneye]

Let's see how ENSO responds to the next MJO pulse that will occur by Mid-May.

[Ntxw]

Models have been trending towards a better propagating MJO wave of late

[cycloneye]

Models have been trending towards a better propagating MJO wave of late

http://i40.tinypic.com/339rnt2.gif

The strength of the MJO event may cause it to move over the Pacific and possibly cause the first EPAC tropical cyclone of the year in late May. If the pulse sustains relativly strong, also the Caribbean could possibly get involved during the last week of May or first week of June. And of course,the other part of the MJO factor is what will occur if anything with ENSO.We will see what occurs with this.

[cycloneye]

The 30 day SOI index has plundged to negative after being in positive for the past two months. Ntxw, anything about this crash that may be important or are only fluctuations?

[Kingarabian]

Cycloneye, that's a heck of a plunge. I guess it's anticipating the latest MJO wave.

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[Ntxw]

I do suspect it has something to do with the MJO especially effecting Darwin's higher pressures of late. It could also be coupled with the inter-seasonal changes and the transitioning from late Fall to Winter down that way. We'll know more about SOI once these changes settle down late in June heading into July. Pressure crashes in Tahiti become less common as the south Pacific tropical season comes to an end, more emphasis will be shifted to Australia and its heights.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/6/13 update

Nino 3.4 in dead neutral at 0.0C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Latest MJO wave really means business. In tandem the latest +AAM induced MT is being fueled strongly by the Himalayas and Rockies, both big players in the northern hemisphere. Aside from possibly warming of the Pacific this month, it will also cause 'monsoon' like regions of the tropics such as epac and atl that cycloneye has mentioned which could be conducive for early season cyclone developments.

[Kingarabian]

Latest MJO wave really means business. In tandem the latest +AAM induced MT is being fueled strongly by the Himalayas and Rockies, both big players in the northern hemisphere. Aside from possibly warming of the Pacific this month, it will also cause 'monsoon' like regions of the tropics such as epac and atl that cycloneye has mentioned which could be conducive for early season cyclone developments.

Could it fuel a possible El-Nino this summer?

As for the latest Model prediction consensus, was it released before the MJO arrived to the Pacific? Or would this MJO event not affect the Models predictions for Neutral conditions this summer?

[cycloneye]

Latest MJO wave really means business. In tandem the latest +AAM induced MT is being fueled strongly by the Himalayas and Rockies, both big players in the northern hemisphere. Aside from possibly warming of the Pacific this month, it will also cause 'monsoon' like regions of the tropics such as epac and atl that cycloneye has mentioned which could be conducive for early season cyclone developments.

Could it fuel a possible El-Nino this summer?

As for the latest Model prediction consensus, was it released before the MJO arrived to the Pacific?

The next batch of the consensus will be released around Mid May so it will have MJO imput.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I wish the MJO would fuel an El Nino this summer. But looking at the latest sst's. Looks more like La Nina coming. I hope somehow El Nino forms. But if I was betting. I'd say Neutral all summer.

[Ntxw]

I wish the MJO would fuel an El Nino this summer. But looking at the latest sst's. Looks more like La Nina coming. I hope somehow El Nino forms. But if I was betting. I'd say Neutral all summer.

I think as time progresses La Nina becomes less and less likely. Nina events tends to come early and fast which then peaks during the fall. It's true the surface SST's are cool over the eastern Nino regions but they are not supported well enough underneath for a full blown Nina. For the past 6 months or so the global wind oscillation hardly spent any time in the -AAM phase (sign of La Nina patterns) and so we saw the gradual rise from the -0.6c in early January, but still holding neutral.

I'm curious to see what the PDO comes out as for April.

Could it fuel a possible El-Nino this summer?

As for the latest Model prediction consensus, was it released before the MJO arrived to the Pacific? Or would this MJO event not affect the Models predictions for Neutral conditions this summer?

The last batch of models did not really include the latest MJO forecasts, it has been trending recently to a strong wave. I don't believe El Nino is coming this year, but warm or cool neutral have different consequences for each basin and where these anomalies are happening.