ATL: IRENE - Models

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bella_may
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#2941 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:34 pm

has the new gfs run started yet?
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Evil Jeremy
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#2942 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:34 pm

GFS rolling... rolling... rolling on the river...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2943 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:34 pm

initialized at 1007mb......next...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2944 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:36 pm

ROCK wrote:initialized at 1007mb......next...


i wouldn't look into that too much. May be a resolution issue. Did initialize with good 500mb vorticity.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2945 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:36 pm

so much for having recon data in the 0z..... :roll:
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2946 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:36 pm

ROCK wrote:initialized at 1007mb......next...


Well maybe we can still take a close look at how it handles the ridges and troughs.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2947 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:37 pm

ROCK wrote:initialized at 1007mb......next...


Oh come on. A few years ago the GFS initialized a Cat 5 storm as an open wave :lol:
Give it a chance to run lol
Last edited by WeatherEmperor on Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2948 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:37 pm

ROCK wrote:initialized at 1007mb......next...

Don't dismiss the model. GFS always initalizes weak. Anyways, ridging is stronger early on in this run.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2949 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:38 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
ROCK wrote:initialized at 1007mb......next...


Well maybe we can still take a close look at how it handles the ridges and troughs.



if I was a FL person I sure would be.....
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2950 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:39 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
ROCK wrote:initialized at 1007mb......next...


Oh come on. A few years ago the GFS initialized a Cat 5 storm as an open wave :lol:
Give it a chance to run lol



lol....and it had Arlene and Don as a few sprinkles in the carib earlier this year.... :lol: ok ok I will check it out...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2951 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:39 pm

I'll throw my chips in on the table and call that this run will make a slight shift back West. Anyone want to call or raise...or fold??? :lol:

SFT
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2952 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:40 pm

Arent you supposed to subtract like 10 millibars of pressure for the GFS?

So it's actually starting at 997mb?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2953 Postby viberama » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:41 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I'll throw my chips in on the table and call that this run will make a slight shift back West. Anyone want to call or raise...or fold??? :lol:

SFT


I'll fold. I think this it's gonna skirt the coastline and it might actually make landfall in a few places.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2954 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:42 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I'll throw my chips in on the table and call that this run will make a slight shift back West. Anyone want to call or raise...or fold??? :lol:

SFT


I'll call your west movement. Ridge looking stronger this time so far.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2955 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:43 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I'll throw my chips in on the table and call that this run will make a slight shift back West. Anyone want to call or raise...or fold??? :lol:

SFT

I'll say very similar but slightly east of the 18z run
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2956 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:43 pm

I see your west movement and raise you a 12hr GFS location NW of PR.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012l.gif
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2957 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:44 pm

ROCK wrote:so much for having recon data in the 0z..... :roll:


The GIV has not flown yet... it takes off Monday evening
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#2958 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:45 pm

24 hours in, a little SW of previous run:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal024.gif
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2959 Postby bigdan35 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:47 pm

could weaken if it takes this track.
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#2960 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:51 pm

H+30 Northern Dr


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal030.gif
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