ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2941 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:05 am

120 hours

Image
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2942 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:05 am

Quite a bit weaker this run...definitely interesting.
1 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
Top
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2943 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:05 am

Still should cut off when I look at the pv maps. Maybe a bit further east. Don't see any reasons this run will be much different.
1 likes   
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1756
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2944 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:06 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2945 Postby Siker » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:07 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Quite a bit weaker this run...definitely interesting.


The storm is weaker? I'm seeing differences of 5mb at most in either direction through 132 hours besides the first two days.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2946 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:07 am

126 hours

Image
1 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
stormreader

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2947 Postby stormreader » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:08 am

weathaguyry wrote:
Blown Away wrote:GFS/Euro consistent on blocking Irma from turning NE into Atlantic... I think that's what you take away from these model runs, seems that HP wants to be strong and block Irma, wouldn't surprise me if a southerly route into EGOM or a NE impact... I will always side with magic trap door opening at some point for last minute escape...


It makes we wonder if we could end up getting a Donna track out of this.


Posted a Donna track a couple of days ago as a possible analog to this storm. Donna formed very early (at Cabo Verde Islands) like this one. Also at about the exact same date (Aug 29). Donna was a major well out to sea. Peaked at Cat 4. Has similarities with this storm. I'm still keeping S Fl and the Straits in what I term my "window".....Cape Fear North Carolina---To North Coast of Cuba. Keeping that entire window open for the time being.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2948 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:09 am

132

Image
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2949 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:11 am

138

Image
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2950 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:13 am

144

Image
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1756
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2951 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:14 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2952 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:14 am

OTS this run?
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Siker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 904
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:36 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2953 Postby Siker » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:15 am

Wouldn't be surprised if this came in further south (NC/Virginia) this run based on earlier tilting of the trough / slower storm.

Edit: Trough seems to be weaker though, not as negatively tilted as previous runs.
Last edited by Siker on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 22
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2954 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:15 am

150

Image
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4035
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2955 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am

weathaguyry wrote:132

Image

Misses SE FL this run?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
AxaltaRacing24
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1756
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:14 am
Location: Jupiter, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2956 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am

TheStormExpert wrote:OTS this run?

Unlikely with a storm this far south this run.
0 likes   
Top
Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2957 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am

Does the ridging appear stronger and deeper or about the same as the last run?
0 likes   
Top
M3gaMatch
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 38
Joined: Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:32 pm
Location: Queensland, Australia

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2958 Postby M3gaMatch » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am

trough looks flatter / weakening faster @ 150hrs than it did previous GFS runs.
Last edited by M3gaMatch on Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4544
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:
Contact toad strangler

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2959 Postby toad strangler » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:16 am

About a 3 degree shift S through 150 this GFS go around
0 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#2960 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 02, 2017 11:17 am

I'd be VERY surprised if the Euro didn't change its tune this afternoon and trend East towards the GFS.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests