ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

Hi guys this is my first post since finally being able to join, i had to wait nearly 24 hours since signing up to post ! Oh well !!

I have been watching this system since day 1 over here in Australia, i have been reading this forum non stop, and have been checking every single GFS and ECMWF run since both models picked up Isaac. You guys definatly have the potential to see a big system in the gulf of mexico as others have stated. I guess its all going to depend on when Tropical Storm Isaac eventually starts moving more so WNW-NW as to where he ends up, so the next 24-48 hours are critical in his movements in relation to the islands south of Florida, and the Florida Peninsula.
Land interaction is obviously going to play a big part in whether Isaac becomes a severe system or not. If the ridge doesnt lessen as quickly as forcast, then obviously we will end up with a very angry Isaac in the Gulf, however if the ridge does relax we will see him probably not live up to the full potential that would exist due to land intereaction with Florida.

Time will tell, and I will be watching this like a hawk, I hope everyone in the path of Isaac stays safe and starts there Hurricane Preperations now just in case.

Cheers - Travis. ( Aussie Cyclone Chaser )

[brunota2003]

I always ponder why so many amateurs are so quick to doubt the NHC when time after time they prove to be the best hurricane forecasters on the planet. The NHC 5am discussion was a good one, described the situation perfectly, and now recon is confirming it.

Some review of the rules.

- NHC and pro met bashing is NOT tolerated. Jabs, jokes, and veiled insults included.

- Posting pictures of tracks with official logos on them is NOT allowed. You need to remove all official logos when posting your own forecast tracks.

They COULD use Storm2K's mark up maps! If you WANT to make your own forecast, use these!
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/S2k/s2kmaps.htm

[Portastorm]

Travis, welcome to Storm 2K! We look forward to your participation on the board and we're glad to have you.

[rockyman]

If Isaac moves "due" WNW (2 degrees of longitude for every 1 degree of latitude), it should barely miss the SW tip of Haiti.

[perk]

It's going to have to take a sharp right turn to hit Haiti. Center is well south of the 06Z model tracks.

wxman57 why did'nt the NHC use the center position that the HH'S found last night, instead of establishing it by using a dropsonde.

[otowntiger]

I'm still not seeing the promised nw or wnw movement per satellite. I pray this is not my worst nightmare confirmed. No one here is preparing for a storm.

I don't see how this could be your worst nightmare unless the storm goes through rapid intensification in short order. If the track doesn't verify and it heads your way the one thing you got in your favor is that this is a weak/disorganized system. It's not like its a menacing potent system at this time nor does it look like it will be. Just my amateur opinion take it for what its worth.

[BensonTCwatcher]

It needs to complete the formation and stacking before it will start much northward motion. There is plenty of time for this to shift to teh right and in fact I will go way out on a limb and say that the east shift is not done. I suspect that we will see more back and forth until the system clears Hisp. for sure. Even money we get yet another center reformation near Hisp. or at least a jog and thus is CONUS landmass affected will change again. Lot of storms have acted goofy in this area and most never even made it to HC status. We don't go back and look at TC history as much as we do HC history, thus the comparison to Gilbert etc. on tracks as a fully developed cyclone arent valid.

[Sanibel]

The outflow feathering on the west side could be the sign of better overhead conditions.

Isaac proved weaker than expected. This west trend takes a lot of stress off me but puts it on those west of us in Alabama.

Now unexpected strengthening is pretty much the danger.

It should be pointed-out WX57 was on the ball with this one.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxwatcher1999]

how much longer will isaac have to move west before the NHC has to take it into account that he is not following the current forcasted track?

[Frank2]

Just my opinion but I'm worried that Isaac is going to be another Charley (2004) - the entire situation is VERY similar...

P.S. Oops - sorry, Sanibel - didn't see you here until after I posted, but I recall how that experience affected your life...

P.P.S. Lost my rented house 20 years ago today to Hurricane Andrew...

Frank2

[meriland23]

how much longer will isaac have to move west before the NHC has to take it into account that he is not following the current forcasted track?

My guess is once it passes hisp (bout 7 hrs) then again, nhc might want to treck it north to cuba and back on track after that.

[jlauderdal]

If Isaac moves "due" WNW (2 degrees of longitude for every 1 degree of latitude), it should barely miss the SW tip of Haiti.

this system is trying its best to stay away from the shredder...it stayed weak and now its trying to get out of the Caribbean, intensity the next 48 hours will be really interesting..you could have a fairly decent structure coming into the straits, weak systems tend to do better over rough terrain..once its in the straits then it could ramp up, keys arent going to slow down intensification, even if it took the easterly route and came up through the everglades that should do much structural damage...bottom line, watch out northern gulf coast

[BensonTCwatcher]

Just my opinion but I'm worried that Isaac is going to be another Charley (2004) - the entire situation is VERY similar...

Frank2

It is similar but I don't see much chance of sharp shortwave or other steering feature pulling a sudden right movement on this one, besides this si a much larger system, and even on teh GOM waters won't steer as easy as Charley. My concern is that it coudl be worse as far as areas affected. This could still get very strong, and the sat presentation looks like game on.

[Blown Away]

Great free update from Joe Bastardi:
http://www.weatherbell.com

He moved his track from hugging the Florida E coast to hugging the W coast, but still thinks SFL is a high probability.

[wxwatcher1999]

my question is with the western movement longer than expected could it affect the way isaac feels the weakness?

[jlauderdal]

Great free update from Joe Bastardi:
http://www.weatherbell.com

He moved his track from hugging the Florida E coast to hugging the W coast, but still thinks SFL is a high probability.

SFL school kids feeling much better about their chances this morning

[Caribwxgirl]

I'm still not seeing the promised nw or wnw movement per satellite. I pray this is not my worst nightmare confirmed. No one here is preparing for a storm.

I don't see how this could be your worst nightmare unless the storm goes through rapid intensification in short order. If the track doesn't verify and it heads your way the one thing you got in your favor is that this is a weak/disorganized system. It's not like its a menacing potent system at this time nor does it look like it will be. Just my amateur opinion take it for what its worth.

No a slow moving rain maker will result in possible landslide because of of mountainous we are. Anyway I'm hoping it stays as predicted somewhat but that the center misses Haiti as well as the worst of the rains they don't need it. Believe it just take a good half hour of heavy rain to have some flooding on parts of Jamaica.

[Dean4Storms]

Starting to get its act together from the looks of it, should begin to see it feeling the effects of the weakness with the slow down it must be at the SW periphery of the sub-tropical ridge and begin its latitude gain today!

[Agua]

how much longer will isaac have to move west before the NHC has to take it into account that he is not following the current forcasted track?

My guess is once it passes hisp (bout 7 hrs) then again, nhc might want to treck it north to cuba and back on track after that.

That's been a typical NHC adjustment. Just note the present position then adjust track to bring it to their existing landfall point.

[tolakram]

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