ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Haven't seen a sat pic since 8 am this morning before work. I gotta say it looks much better for sure... Do we actually have some kind of recon going in tonight or are we going to have to wait until tomorrow?

Idk been trying to figure it out. TPOD says one should have taken off at 20Z, and 18 z .. who knows.

 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/769300431675625473

ok so thats noaa. what about the TPOD and the AF flights.

[supercane]

ok so thats noaa. what about the TPOD and the AF flights.

It's not happening. From this afternoon's TCPOD (note text I bolded for emphasis)

NOUS42 KNHC 261737
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0145 PM EDT FRI 26 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-092 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 05EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
C. 27/1530Z C. 28/0330Z
D. 24.0N 78.5W D. 24.5N 80.0W
E. 27/1730Z TO 27/2130Z E. 28/0500Z TO 28/1130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. REMARKS:
A. ALL PREVIOUS TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM WAS CANCELED
BY 26/0815Z.
B. GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION AROUND HURRICANE GASTON
DEPARTING 26/2200Z. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. 80 DROPS.
C. NOAA'S P-3 WILL FLY RESEARCH MISSIONS AROUND THIS AREA
AT 27/1800Z AND 28/0600Z.
D. CORRECTED FOR LONGITUDE IN FLIGHT ONE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

[stormlover2013]

Hwrf way weaker..looking more and more like a rain maker, but u never know

[GCANE]

2 strong hot towers
22N 75W
21N 74W
Could get real interesting come sun rise.

[Bocadude85]

I didn't think those islands were high enough to cause lift?, but I guess it doesn't take much near Dmax.

It's just past Dmin not Dmax.

[JaxGator]

HWRF now much weaker. You know the basin is really bad off for TC development when storms have better environments in the north central part of the basin than in classic locations for development. Models are almost now all in agreement on this being either really weak or nothing at all. Also, strange how shear seems to magically follow storms in recent years would like to know the odds of that happening.

It's been flip flopping on the last few runs but I'm now in "nowcast mode". No one wants a storm to hit anybody but I would like to add that it also seemed "magical" that shear lessened a lot from yesterday as well. Still not perfect but it's getting there.

[HurriGuy]

Please stop using the HWRF for genesis. It was never supposed to be that strong where it had been in the earlier runs. If anything, this is the most realistic run yet

[Nimbus]

I didn't think those islands were high enough to cause lift?, but I guess it doesn't take much near Dmax.

It's just past Dmin not Dmax.

You are probably right! even though the convection is getting sheared it seems to be organizing the inflow so maybe this vortice won't just spin off naked.

[HurriGuy]

I mean look at the beginning of the HWRF run. It has initialized with no thunderstorms. Already bad....

[Bocadude85]

I know it sounds crazy but I really think the 18Z NAM has a better grip on this then the other 18z guidance. I am talking about as far as genesis not track FYI.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016082618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

[HurriGuy]

NHC DOWN TO

20/50

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%-50%

Shower activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located
in the central Bahamas has increased during the past several hours
but it remains disorganized. Upper-level winds are not favorable
for significant development during the next day or so while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud
slides, are likely to continue over Hispaniola tonight and Saturday.
This activity is expected to spread over eastern and central Cuba
through the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are
likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will spread into parts of
southern Florida and the Florida Keys over the weekend. Interests
elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue
to monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Hammy]

They really can't make up their mind with the percentages--didn't they raise it on the last one? Either way I'd personally put it at 0/30 tops.

[Dean4Storms]

Call me surpised that NHC would drop the chance in 48 hours and beyond with the increase in convection, that is the first step needed during the past 2 days!

[AutoPenalti]

Call me surpised that NHC would drop the chance in 48 hours and beyond with the increase in convection, that is the first step needed during the past 2 days!

ULL aren't favorable as per GFS. It's going to weaken tomorrow morning.

[jlauderdal]

HWRF now much weaker. You know the basin is really bad off for TC development when storms have better environments in the north central part of the basin than in classic locations for development. Models are almost now all in agreement on this being either really weak or nothing at all. Also, strange how shear seems to magically follow storms in recent years would like to know the odds of that happening.

i have been in nowcast mode sonce last night...its the most effective until we have a defined system

It's been flip flopping on the last few runs but I'm now in "nowcast mode". No one wants a storm to hit anybody but I would like to add that it also seemed "magical" that shear lessened a lot from yesterday as well. Still not perfect but it's getting there.

[SapphireSea]

I would agree. 0/30 sounds reasonable. There is actually pretty deceptively stable air around the area. Sounding in S.FL shows inversion layer. Night time blossoming convection I've seen is associated with shear and convergence.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF now much weaker. You know the basin is really bad off for TC development when storms have better environments in the north central part of the basin than in classic locations for development. Models are almost now all in agreement on this being either really weak or nothing at all. Also, strange how shear seems to magically follow storms in recent years would like to know the odds of that happening.

i have been in nowcast mode sonce last night...its the most effective until we have a defined system

It's been flip flopping on the last few runs but I'm now in "nowcast mode". No one wants a storm to hit anybody but I would like to add that it also seemed "magical" that shear lessened a lot from yesterday as well. Still not perfect but it's getting there.

HWRF still is pretty much the same. it finds the right environment and deepens it regardless.

[psyclone]

Elevator is going down. I agree that 50% is still generous and will likely be lower tomorrow at this time.

[Michele B]

Last vis sat loop before sunset, ML vorticity is really trying to catch up to the low level vorticity.

This might sound like a dumb question, but.....

We are due west of Lake Okeechobee, but not all the way to the coast. We have had some crazy weather all afternoon, and it keeps getting crazier. Almost like squalls...no rain, then rain - hard rain, and thunder and lightning. Then it dries up....you get it.

Can this be - I don't know if its' called "feeder bands" since this isn't really a storm yet - but is it possible, this crazy weather is possibly related to the storm that doesn't wanna be? I mean, I deliberately included the above clip, cause it seems to show the "bands" of weather I am referring to....going across the center of FL, at the very top of the pic.

What do you all think?