ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLeastcoast]

when is central fl supposed to start feeling effects from this

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanecity/status/904788420718985216

[SouthDadeFish]

Radar presentation is starting to become very impressive. Consistent with the 130 kts measured at flight-level in the northern eyewall. Looks like the EWRC is basically finished.

[NDG]

when is central fl supposed to start feeling effects from this

Sunday.

[WeatherGuesser]

when is central fl supposed to start feeling effects from this

Five day cone is still basically off shore, so figure 5-6 days at the earliest as of right now, subject to change.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042156
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 07 20170904
214700 1653N 06111W 4098 07417 0404 -144 -243 056016 018 /// /// 03
214730 1652N 06109W 4099 07413 0404 -140 -299 052017 018 /// /// 03
214800 1651N 06107W 4098 07416 0404 -135 -346 051016 016 /// /// 03
214830 1650N 06104W 4097 07418 0403 -135 -363 057016 017 /// /// 03
214900 1649N 06102W 4101 07411 0402 -137 -361 055017 017 /// /// 03
214930 1648N 06100W 4099 07411 0400 -140 -338 052017 017 /// /// 03
215000 1647N 06057W 4098 07411 0398 -143 -310 049018 018 /// /// 03
215030 1646N 06055W 4099 07407 0397 -140 -295 050019 019 /// /// 03
215100 1645N 06053W 4098 07408 0396 -140 -366 051020 020 /// /// 03
215130 1644N 06050W 4097 07411 0396 -140 -384 052020 020 /// /// 03
215200 1643N 06048W 4101 07402 0395 -140 -363 048019 019 /// /// 03
215230 1642N 06046W 4099 07405 0395 -139 -360 046018 019 /// /// 03
215300 1642N 06043W 4099 07405 0395 -139 -367 043017 018 /// /// 03
215330 1641N 06041W 4099 07403 0395 -139 -356 041017 018 /// /// 03
215400 1640N 06038W 4099 07405 0394 -137 -353 043017 018 /// /// 03
215430 1639N 06036W 4098 07405 0393 -136 -359 044018 019 /// /// 03
215500 1638N 06034W 4098 07403 0392 -135 -362 038017 017 /// /// 03
215530 1637N 06031W 4098 07403 0391 -136 -362 030016 017 /// /// 03
215600 1636N 06029W 4099 07401 0390 -140 -348 028017 017 /// /// 03
215630 1635N 06027W 4097 07405 0390 -145 -318 034017 018 /// /// 03
$$
;

[NDG]

130 knot flight level winds.

214600 1703N 05435W 6952 02924 9729 +122 //// 097128 130 097 044 01

[jdjaguar]

Isn't it a little early for a state of emergency?

No. It's standard protocol in florida and activates state agencies to deal with the situation. It doesn't mean freak out or panic and it has nothing to with a potential high impact event. It happens even with a minimal ts.

Agree, however, the general public will only hear "state of emergency".

[eastcoastFL]

My local forecast in Martin county:

Friday
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Friday Night
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 78. Windy, with a northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 77. Windy, with an east northeast wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 87. Windy, with an east wind 30 to 35 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Windy, with an east northeast wind around 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


*********

It always starts out like this on the lower end and the wind forecasts climb as it gets closer.

[eastcoastFL]

Isn't it a little early for a state of emergency?

No. It's standard protocol in florida and activates state agencies to deal with the situation. It doesn't mean freak out or panic and it has nothing to with a potential high impact event. It happens even with a minimal ts.

Agree, however, the general public will only hear "state of emergency".

That's not a bad thing. Some people need that. This is Florida...

[NDG]

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or is it making the turn early? Maybe just a wobble.

Still moving west, 16.7N fix on it by the recon just a few minutes ago.

[psyclone]

Isn't it a little early for a state of emergency?

No. It's standard protocol in florida and activates state agencies to deal with the situation. It doesn't mean freak out or panic and it has nothing to with a potential high impact event. It happens even with a minimal ts.

Agree, however, the general public will only hear "state of emergency".

The term is unfortunate but this is standard protocol so I'd bet the public won't freak. Just like they don't freak over long range apocalyptic model runs. If the media and on camera mets are competent they hose down the lunacy. In general the Tampa Bay market does a good job in this regard

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 042159
NOAA2 0511A IRMA HDOB 11 20170904
214930 1718N 05435W 6958 03058 9913 +100 //// 104096 100 064 016 01
215000 1720N 05435W 6957 03066 9927 +096 //// 100093 096 060 016 05
215030 1722N 05435W 6970 03063 9936 +102 //// 099088 090 056 011 01
215100 1724N 05435W 6953 03093 9939 +109 +095 098082 082 056 006 00
215130 1726N 05435W 6959 03093 9949 +109 +089 099079 081 055 006 00
215200 1728N 05435W 6957 03104 9964 +103 +094 103076 077 053 007 00
215230 1730N 05435W 6957 03110 9974 +101 +094 103075 077 051 011 00
215300 1732N 05435W 6955 03123 9979 +102 +099 098078 080 047 011 00
215330 1735N 05435W 6959 03123 9983 +105 +095 099076 076 046 004 00
215400 1737N 05435W 6952 03135 9994 +102 +085 093076 077 044 004 00
215430 1739N 05435W 6969 03118 9991 +109 +074 092075 076 044 005 00
215500 1741N 05435W 6957 03136 9989 +115 +071 092070 073 041 005 00
215530 1743N 05435W 6968 03126 9988 +118 +070 093062 063 041 005 00
215600 1745N 05435W 6968 03131 9991 +120 +065 097065 066 041 005 00
215630 1747N 05435W 6962 03139 9989 +122 +063 097062 062 039 006 00
215700 1749N 05435W 6961 03140 9996 +117 +066 098062 063 039 006 00
215730 1751N 05435W 6960 03145 9998 +117 +070 095061 063 037 008 00
215800 1753N 05435W 6969 03135 0000 +119 +065 097065 067 036 005 00
215830 1756N 05435W 6960 03148 0006 +115 +065 098066 067 037 004 00
215900 1758N 05435W 6958 03154 0007 +117 +058 099066 066 038 002 00

[tropicwatch]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 21:57Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 21:40:44Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°41'N 54°35'W (16.6833N 54.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 416 statute miles (670 km) to the NE (54°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,615m (8,579ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 90kts (~ 103.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SSW (193°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 275° at 93kts (From the W at ~ 107.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the S/SSW (191°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 130kts (~ 149.6mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the N (1°) from the flight level center at 21:45:54Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 10kts (From the SE at 12mph)

[eastcoastFL]

130 knot flight level winds.

214600 1703N 05435W 6952 02924 9729 +122 //// 097128 130 097 044 01

Does it translate to less at the surface?

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT12 KWBC 042157
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112017
A. 04/21:40:44Z
B. 16 deg 41 min N
054 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2615 m
D. 90 kt
E. 193 deg 12 nm
F. 275 deg 93 kt
G. 191 deg 14 nm
H. 944 mb
I. 10 C / 3054 m
J. 18 C / 3052 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. NOAA2 0511A IRMA OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND AND MAX FL WIND 130 KT 001 / 22 NM 21:45:54Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 130 / 10 KTS

[WeatherGuesser]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)

You know there's a separate thread for those, right?

[GCANE]

Southern portion of the eyewall intensifying rapidly

[GCANE]

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042206
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 08 20170904
215700 1634N 06024W 4098 07401 0390 -137 -273 045017 017 /// /// 03
215730 1633N 06022W 4099 07398 0389 -135 -338 041017 018 /// /// 03
215800 1632N 06019W 4099 07400 0390 -133 -380 039018 019 /// /// 03
215830 1631N 06017W 4098 07400 0389 -135 -360 042018 019 /// /// 03
215900 1630N 06015W 4098 07401 0389 -135 -359 041017 018 /// /// 03
215930 1629N 06012W 4101 07397 0389 -135 -363 039016 017 /// /// 03
220000 1628N 06010W 4099 07397 0389 -135 -358 039016 017 /// /// 03
220030 1627N 06008W 4100 07397 0388 -135 -342 035017 017 /// /// 03
220100 1626N 06005W 4098 07398 0388 -135 -345 032017 018 /// /// 03
220130 1625N 06003W 4098 07400 0387 -138 -349 032015 018 /// /// 03
220200 1624N 06001W 4100 07395 0386 -140 -309 031014 014 /// /// 03
220230 1623N 05958W 4098 07400 0387 -140 -284 029014 015 /// /// 03
220300 1622N 05956W 4098 07398 0388 -140 -315 033016 016 /// /// 03
220330 1621N 05953W 4099 07400 0390 -140 -300 037016 016 /// /// 03
220400 1620N 05951W 4098 07404 0392 -141 -320 033016 016 /// /// 03
220430 1619N 05949W 4099 07403 0393 -140 -322 034016 016 /// /// 03
220500 1618N 05946W 4098 07404 0394 -140 -334 032016 016 /// /// 03
220530 1617N 05944W 4098 07406 0394 -140 -335 032016 016 /// /// 03
220600 1616N 05942W 4099 07404 0394 -140 -339 032016 016 /// /// 03
220630 1615N 05939W 4099 07403 0394 -145 -327 029016 016 /// /// 03
$$
;