ATL: IAN - Models

[Mouton]

Get ready for route 4 Charlie.

I don’t buy the cat 4 to TS scenario in 24 hours either. Putting up our shutters on east coast tomorrow. Been wrong before but I don’t bet against what I think my eyes see…strong SE to NE flow.

[skyline385]

With that latest EURO run, does it effect the east coast at all? or does it just turn North later into Northern Florida?

Looks like it was missing data see above

Never heard of a missing data before, he also hasn't responded to folks asking for further clarification to the tweet. I would hold off until we get confirmation or details from more mets about it.

[LarryWx]

The 18z euro is likely based off of Ian's current position, which is assumed to be 40 miles east of the NHC's track at this point in time. That likely explains the SE shift. Sensitive forecast.

The 18Z Euro and other models initialize off of data from 18Z, which is 2PM EDT. So, it can't ingest current. But the 0Z will.

[CronkPSU]

the 6z and 18z euro runs have been a bit wacky, let's see what the 12z looks like

like i said earlier today...let's see what the 0z looks like before getting too crazy

[LarryWx]

With that latest EURO run, does it effect the east coast at all? or does it just turn North later into Northern Florida?

Looks like it was missing data see above

Never heard of a missing data before, he also hasn't responded to folks asking for further clarification to the tweet. I would hold off until we get confirmation or details from more mets about it.

Maybe he was saying that only because it is an "off hour" run (6Z/18Z). But even so, aren't they doing special 6Z/18Z balloons?

[SFLcane]

With that latest EURO run, does it effect the east coast at all? or does it just turn North later into Northern Florida?

Looks like it was missing data see above

Never heard of a missing data before, he also hasn't responded to folks asking for further clarification to the tweet. I would hold off until we get confirmation or details from more mets about it.

Missing data? Um what lol.

First for me

[tolakram]

I don't trust anything that comes from WESH, they do not have a good track record and I am not familiar with the mets that work there. I have no idea what missing data means.

[hohnywx]

I don't trust anything that comes from WESH, they do not have a good track record and I am not familiar with the mets that work there. I have no idea what missing data means.

And he is ignoring requests to respond and explain. Sorry I posted the tweet.

[skyline385]

TVCN now South of Tampa bay

[otowntiger]

Looks like it was missing data see above

Never heard of a missing data before, he also hasn't responded to folks asking for further clarification to the tweet. I would hold off until we get confirmation or details from more mets about it.

not

Missing data? Um what lol.

First for me

not sure what he means either but Burris is my favorite local met- he knows his stuff and is usually very careful to explain to his audience what’s going on. We’ll see what he means soon enough I’m sure.

[eastcoastFL]

I don't trust anything that comes from WESH, they do not have a good track record and I am not familiar with the mets that work there. I have no idea what missing data means.

They say the most off the wall stuff every storm.

[tolakram]

[viberama]

With that latest EURO run, does it effect the east coast at all? or does it just turn North later into Northern Florida?

Looks like it was missing data see above

Never heard of a missing data before, he also hasn't responded to folks asking for further clarification to the tweet. I would hold off until we get confirmation or details from more mets about it.

Eric Buress at WESH 2 is a decent meteorologist but can be melodramatic sometimes. I wouldn't read too much into it.

[TheHurricaneGod]

In comparing the 18z and 00z TT model track guidance for today, I noticed a more northerly direction vs NNW in the spaghetti plots. This, to me, is a definite sign that there's going to be further east shifts in model track guidance. At least that's my assumption. I will have to check back later to see if my intuition was right/wrong.

[tolakram]

Euro trend

[tolakram]

[otowntiger]

Looks like it was missing data see above

Never heard of a missing data before, he also hasn't responded to folks asking for further clarification to the tweet. I would hold off until we get confirmation or details from more mets about it.

Eric Buress at WESH 2 is a decent meteorologist but can be melodramatic sometimes. I wouldn't read too much into it.

But in this case he’s being the opposite of be melodramatic, right? He’s in Orlando- if he wanted to be melodramatic he’d be hyping the latest Euro, not calling for it to be thrown out.

[viberama]

In comparing the 18z and 00z TT model track guidance for today, I noticed a more northerly direction vs NNW in the spaghetti plots. This, to me, is a definite sign that there's going to be further east shifts in model track guidance. At least that's my assumption. I will have to check back later to see if my intuition was right/wrong.

And even if there is a shift east with the models, it's still in the cone. NHC, is on it as are the members here.

[tolakram]

East and stronger than 12Z

[Blown Away]

East and stronger than 12Z
https://i.imgur.com/afHIyoq.gif

The decisions that have to be made by those NHC folks.