Tropical Storm Chris

[mobilebay]

165
SXXX50 KNHC 030651
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 13 KNHC
0639. 2116N 06714W 01524 0104 057 021 160 160 022 01660 0000000000
0640 2114N 06714W 01523 0104 052 021 160 160 022 01660 0000000000
0640. 2113N 06714W 01526 0103 053 021 162 160 021 01662 0000000000
0641 2111N 06714W 01521 0103 050 022 168 152 022 01657 0000000000
0641. 2109N 06714W 01524 0103 058 021 174 132 021 01660 0000000000
0642 2107N 06714W 01524 0103 052 021 168 132 022 01660 0000000000
0642. 2106N 06714W 01524 0103 053 024 168 138 025 01659 0000000000
0643 2104N 06714W 01524 0102 051 024 168 128 025 01659 0000000000
0643. 2102N 06715W 01523 0102 053 023 170 118 023 01658 0000000000
0644 2100N 06715W 01524 0102 052 020 168 128 022 01659 0000000000
0644. 2059N 06715W 01525 0101 044 018 160 158 019 01658 0000000000
0645 2057N 06715W 01525 0099 041 022 162 158 023 01657 0000000000
0645. 2055N 06715W 01523 0100 044 021 170 140 021 01655 0000000000
0646 2053N 06715W 01525 0101 035 019 164 152 020 01659 0000000000
0646. 2052N 06715W 01523 0100 038 021 166 144 022 01656 0000000000
0647 2050N 06715W 01525 0100 042 021 166 140 022 01658 0000000000
0647. 2048N 06714W 01522 0099 040 021 166 140 021 01654 0000000000
0648 2046N 06714W 01525 0099 036 020 166 138 020 01657 0000000000
0648. 2045N 06714W 01524 0098 034 021 166 140 022 01655 0000000000
0649 2043N 06714W 01523 0098 035 022 168 136 022 01654 0000000000
;
headed south through the west quad.

[Rainband]

The LLC does look very robust on the shortwave IR, although void of any convection. Bottom line is if convection doesn't refire around the LLC today Chris is toast! At least this wasn't a boring storm!

I think this is good news. I am amazed after working all day and coming home how some of the posts seem to be dissapointed Not you PT Tracker. I agree Chris is an interesting storm. Seems like Chris' curse may be alive and well

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

So.. Chris is dying?

[mobilebay]

629
SXXX50 KNHC 030701
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 14 KNHC
0649. 2041N 06713W 01525 0098 034 021 168 136 021 01655 0000000000
0650 2039N 06713W 01524 0097 033 020 166 140 021 01655 0000000000
0650. 2037N 06713W 01524 0097 030 018 166 140 019 01654 0000000000
0651 2036N 06712W 01523 0096 024 017 160 144 018 01652 0000000000
0651. 2034N 06712W 01524 0096 020 018 160 144 019 01653 0000000000
0652 2032N 06712W 01526 0097 020 018 160 146 019 01656 0000000000
0652. 2030N 06712W 01525 0096 013 020 160 148 021 01653 0000000000
0653 2029N 06711W 01522 0096 013 021 160 150 022 01650 0000000000
0653. 2027N 06711W 01524 0096 012 018 162 146 019 01652 0000000000
0654 2025N 06711W 01524 0095 007 013 158 158 014 01652 0000000000
0654. 2023N 06711W 01524 0094 351 014 158 158 014 01651 0000000000
0655 2022N 06710W 01524 0094 349 016 160 160 017 01651 0000000000
0655. 2020N 06710W 01524 0094 354 017 160 160 018 01651 0000000000
0656 2018N 06710W 01526 0094 002 019 158 158 021 01653 0000000000
0656. 2016N 06710W 01522 0093 360 023 158 158 023 01647 0000000000
0657 2014N 06709W 01524 0093 357 023 156 156 024 01651 0000000000
0657. 2013N 06709W 01523 0093 353 021 156 156 021 01649 0000000000
0658 2011N 06709W 01524 0093 354 022 156 156 023 01650 0000000000
0658. 2009N 06708W 01524 0092 356 020 152 152 021 01650 0000000000
0659 2007N 06708W 01523 0092 351 018 154 154 018 01648 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

392
SXXX50 KNHC 030711
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 15 KNHC
0659. 2005N 06708W 01527 0093 357 016 158 158 017 01652 0000000000
0700 2004N 06708W 01521 0092 348 015 158 138 016 01645 0000000000
0700. 2002N 06707W 01525 0092 338 017 162 126 017 01649 0000000000
0701 2000N 06707W 01524 0092 334 016 166 120 017 01649 0000000000
0701. 1958N 06707W 01524 0092 329 015 156 156 016 01649 0000000000
0702 1957N 06707W 01524 0092 325 016 158 158 016 01648 0000000000
0702. 1955N 06706W 01524 0091 325 015 160 160 015 01648 0000000000
0703 1953N 06706W 01524 0092 324 015 158 158 016 01649 0000000000
0703. 1951N 06706W 01525 0092 326 015 156 156 015 01650 0000000100
0704 1950N 06706W 01523 0092 323 014 160 160 014 01648 0000000100
0704. 1948N 06705W 01525 0093 320 013 160 160 014 01650 0000000100
0705 1946N 06705W 01524 0093 326 014 160 160 014 01650 0000000100
0705. 1944N 06705W 01524 0093 326 013 160 160 014 01650 0000000000
0706 1943N 06705W 01525 0093 319 013 162 162 014 01650 0000000000
0706. 1941N 06704W 01525 0094 321 015 162 162 015 01652 0000000000
0707 1939N 06704W 01523 0094 323 015 164 144 016 01649 0000000000
0707. 1937N 06704W 01525 0094 326 016 160 142 016 01651 0000000000
0708 1936N 06704W 01523 0094 323 015 160 144 016 01650 0000000000
0708. 1934N 06703W 01524 0094 312 014 164 142 015 01651 0000000000
0709 1932N 06703W 01526 0094 305 015 164 146 015 01653 0000000000
;

[ericinmia]

Here is the fsu mm5 18k resolution precipation 3D model for Chris (12z WED)...
It shows a jump in location, and an all of a sudden lack of precipitation.
Pretty impressive that it predicted 'something'
http://img58.imageshack.us/img58/8343/a ... 12zgv8.gif

Also of note, the LLC for Chris right now, is almost exactly where the mm5 yesterday at 12z said it would eventually be. I was baffled by the jump in location, but i suppose that was the models way of handling the split.

Yesterday, as in today's new run... its now predicting a NW direction in the near term... lets see if that pans out.



EDIT:
Just took at look at the current cords 3am "We have Visible!" and compared them to the new run of the MM5 18K and sure enough. Chris' LLC is Smack dab in the middle of the track (eyeball estimation, don't grill me on .3 off )

[mobilebay]

957
SXXX50 KNHC 030721
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 16 KNHC
0709. 1930N 06703W 01522 0094 305 015 164 154 016 01648 0000000000
0710 1929N 06703W 01523 0094 302 016 168 146 016 01650 0000000000
0710. 1927N 06702W 01524 0095 297 017 168 146 017 01652 0000000000
0711 1925N 06702W 01524 0094 293 015 166 152 015 01651 0000000000
0711. 1924N 06702W 01526 0095 291 015 162 156 016 01654 0000000000
0712 1922N 06702W 01522 0094 295 015 164 144 015 01649 0000000000
0712. 1920N 06701W 01524 0095 293 015 164 144 015 01651 0000000000
0713 1919N 06701W 01524 0095 291 015 166 146 016 01652 0000000000
0713. 1917N 06701W 01525 0095 285 017 164 152 017 01653 0000000000
0714 1915N 06700W 01528 0099 282 016 166 154 017 01660 0000000000
0714. 1916N 06658W 01523 0096 271 014 162 154 015 01652 0000000000
0715 1917N 06657W 01523 0094 266 013 164 150 013 01650 0000000000
0715. 1918N 06656W 01525 0095 274 013 164 150 013 01652 0000000000
0716 1920N 06655W 01524 0094 270 013 160 148 013 01652 0000000000
0716. 1921N 06653W 01524 0095 273 012 162 148 013 01652 0000000000
0717 1922N 06652W 01524 0095 276 012 164 154 013 01651 0000000000
0717. 1923N 06651W 01524 0094 281 014 164 154 014 01651 0000000000
0718 1925N 06650W 01524 0092 280 014 160 160 015 01650 0000000000
0718. 1926N 06648W 01524 0093 274 014 160 154 014 01650 0000000000
0719 1927N 06647W 01524 0092 273 013 160 148 013 01650 0000000000
;

[wxman22]

Im glad I decided to stay up those that didnt are going to be in for a BIG surprise. So it looks like all alone Chris wasnt moving to the southwest just the convection. With the LLC moving into a low shear evirmont add some daytime heating and he could gain some more convection later today....

(I cant wait for the NHC's discussion & forcast...)

[mobilebay]

845
SXXX50 KNHC 030731
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 17 KNHC
0719. 1929N 06646W 01524 0092 271 013 158 146 013 01648 0000000000
0720 1930N 06645W 01524 0092 274 013 160 142 013 01648 0000000000
0720. 1931N 06644W 01524 0091 274 013 158 144 013 01648 0000000000
0721 1933N 06643W 01523 0091 284 013 152 152 013 01647 0000000000
0721. 1934N 06642W 01524 0090 288 013 156 156 013 01647 0000000000
0722 1936N 06641W 01524 0089 285 014 160 158 014 01646 0000000000
0722. 1937N 06640W 01524 0089 290 015 166 150 015 01646 0000000000
0723 1938N 06639W 01524 0088 299 015 170 144 016 01645 0000000000
0723. 1940N 06638W 01524 0087 298 014 174 130 015 01644 0000000000
0724 1941N 06637W 01524 0088 298 015 170 128 016 01645 0000000000
0724. 1942N 06636W 01523 0087 299 015 170 132 015 01643 0000000000
0725 1944N 06635W 01525 0087 303 014 164 152 015 01645 0000000000
0725. 1945N 06634W 01523 0086 309 009 170 138 010 01642 0000000000
0726 1946N 06633W 01525 0085 290 011 168 138 013 01643 0000000000
0726. 1948N 06632W 01524 0084 288 013 166 140 013 01641 0000000000
0727 1949N 06631W 01523 0083 297 012 170 136 013 01639 0000000000
0727. 1950N 06630W 01525 0082 288 011 172 132 011 01640 0000000000
0728 1952N 06629W 01524 0082 286 010 174 136 010 01639 0000000000
0728. 1953N 06628W 01524 0082 283 012 166 142 012 01638 0000000000
0729 1955N 06627W 01523 0081 287 011 164 142 012 01637 0000000000
;

[Rainband]

Im glad I decided to stay up those that didnt are going to be in for a BIG surprise. So it looks like all alone Chris wasnt moving to the southwest just the convection. With the LLC moving into a low shear evirmont add some daytime heating and he could gain some more convection later today....

(I cant wait for the NHC's discussion & forcast...)

Dry air

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

[mobilebay]

221
URNT11 KNHC 030723
97779 07144 50193 67000 15200 27013 1615/ /2549
RMK AF300 0503A CHRIS OB 06
;

[caneman]

Looks like we should have listened to the gfdl

GFDL hasn't been right either. They take a developed system South of Cuba. The LLC is and has been moving WNW. We could say based on that and some of the models like GFS which loses it all together were right too. PErhaps the models weren't picking up on it early because in fact it would be short lived. Will be interesting to see if LLC can re-fire. If so, he looks to go thru around the Keys.

[wxman22]

Thats what I was saying if the LLC can survive through some dry air and enter a moist eviremont it could refire. Remember did'nt Katrina do something simular when it was in the same vicinity...

[Rainband]

Looks like we should have listened to the gfdl

GFDL hasn't been right either. They take a developed system South of Cuba. The LLC is and has been moving WNW. We could say based on that and some of the models like GFS which loses it all together were right too. PErhaps the models weren't picking up on it early because in fact it would be short lived. Will be interesting to see if LLC can re-fire. If so, he looks to go thru around the Keys.

actually the GFDL was the first to dissiapte it.

[caneman]

Looks like we should have listened to the gfdl

GFDL hasn't been right either. They take a developed system South of Cuba. The LLC is and has been moving WNW. We could say based on that and some of the models like GFS which loses it all together were right too. PErhaps the models weren't picking up on it early because in fact it would be short lived. Will be interesting to see if LLC can re-fire. If so, he looks to go thru around the Keys.

actually the GFDL was the first to dissiapte it.

You're probably right. The models have been baffled by Chris thus far just as many of us have.

[mobilebay]

049
SXXX50 KNHC 030741
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 18 KNHC
0729. 1956N 06627W 01525 0081 293 012 158 154 013 01639 0000000000
0730 1958N 06626W 01523 0080 310 011 162 162 011 01636 0000000000
0730. 1959N 06625W 01525 0080 315 009 164 164 010 01637 0000000000
0731 2001N 06624W 01524 0078 324 012 166 166 012 01635 0000000000
0731. 2002N 06623W 01524 0078 326 012 166 166 012 01634 0000000000
0732 2003N 06622W 01525 0078 309 014 166 166 015 01635 0000000000
0732. 2004N 06621W 01523 0078 311 011 166 166 013 01633 0000000000
0733 2006N 06620W 01525 0076 300 011 164 164 013 01634 0000000000
0733. 2007N 06618W 01524 0076 307 009 166 166 011 01633 0000000000
0734 2008N 06617W 01523 0075 319 012 168 168 014 01631 0000000000
0734. 2009N 06616W 01525 0074 299 013 168 168 015 01632 0000000000
0735 2011N 06615W 01523 0073 282 010 170 170 012 01628 0000000000
0735. 2012N 06614W 01525 0072 262 005 170 170 006 01630 0000000000
0736 2014N 06614W 01524 0071 284 005 176 168 005 01627 0000000000
0736. 2015N 06613W 01524 0071 321 005 182 166 007 01627 0000000000
0737 2017N 06613W 01524 0070 041 005 200 142 007 01627 0000000000
0737. 2018N 06612W 01524 0069 059 008 200 144 009 01626 0000000000
0738 2020N 06612W 01524 0069 066 009 194 158 010 01625 0000000000
0738. 2022N 06611W 01524 0068 090 013 198 148 015 01625 0000000000
0739 2023N 06611W 01521 0071 095 017 208 134 017 01624 0000000000
;

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Last night when I made my discussion. I seen that if the tutt/ULL caught up to it then Chris would be in deep trouble. If it had not caught it Chris would of had a very near perfect enviroment to bomb. In thats why my forecast numbers where so high. Because Chris slowed down is why the tutt/Ull caught it. I'm not sure about his future. If he can speed up in stay north of Hati he has a chance.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

At 5am this will be a tropical depression. This is Debby JR...

[mobilebay]

677
SXXX50 KNHC 030751
AF300 0503A CHRIS HDOB 19 KNHC
0739. 2024N 06610W 01525 0072 096 014 206 134 016 01629 0000000000
0740 2023N 06609W 01525 0071 090 012 208 130 013 01629 0000000000
0740. 2021N 06609W 01524 0069 096 010 210 132 011 01626 0000000000
0741 2019N 06609W 01524 0069 074 008 206 136 009 01626 0000000000
0741. 2018N 06610W 01524 0069 051 007 204 138 008 01626 0000000000
0742 2016N 06610W 01524 0069 337 005 198 144 007 01626 0000000000
0742. 2014N 06611W 01524 0070 292 009 188 156 011 01627 0000000000
0743 2013N 06611W 01524 0071 279 013 176 172 013 01628 0000000000
0743. 2011N 06611W 01524 0072 286 011 170 170 012 01629 0000000000
0744 2010N 06611W 01526 0076 281 008 170 170 009 01634 0000000000
0744. 2009N 06609W 01523 0075 264 008 170 170 008 01631 0000000000
0745 2011N 06608W 01524 0072 255 011 172 172 013 01629 0000000000
0745. 2012N 06607W 01523 0071 232 010 176 176 011 01627 0000000000
0746 2014N 06608W 01523 0070 218 005 196 148 008 01626 0000000000
0746. 2015N 06609W 01524 0069 204 001 204 140 002 01625 0000000000
0747 2016N 06610W 01524 0069 044 002 204 138 005 01626 0000000000
0747. 2017N 06612W 01522 0073 079 008 202 140 008 01628 0000000000
0748 2019N 06611W 01527 0070 107 007 204 138 008 01630 0000000000
0748. 2020N 06610W 01523 0068 130 013 206 136 015 01624 0000000000
0749 2021N 06608W 01522 0068 123 015 210 130 017 01624 0000000000
;

[mobilebay]

At 5am this will be a tropical depression. This is Debby JR...

They are going through the center now. I'll wait until they sample the east quad before making that call.