ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[wkwally]

I will not let my guard down just yet but if it falls apart it will make me avery happy camper

[ConvergenceZone]

I will not let my guard down just yet but if it falls apart it will make me avery happy camper

Well, you better hope that SOME of it stays together, because Texas really needs the rain....If it falls apart too much, none of the moisture may even make it to Texas...

[Kingarabian]

When was the last time we had a storm of 60mph winds with a 1009mb pressure...

[Dave]

[Air Force Met]

Bone Yard claims another!

Shear is getting it. The low level circulation is running out from under the mid level circulation. This is what the globals (GFS and Euro) are calling for...and why they have been forecasting weakening.

It remains to be seen if it can get its act back together.

AirForce, what blows my mind is, how the heck could the models know this in advance?? I mean, the shear wasn't even forecasted to be quite this bad......How the heck do the models know that the low level circulation would be running out from under the mid level circulation several days in advance????..

There are different types of shear. This type of shear is caused by the pressure gradients in the lower levels being stronger to the north than that in the mid levels. So...the low level center is out running the mid level low. If you look at the GFS and EURO sfc 24hr forecasts and compare them with the 700 mb 24 hr forecast...you will see they don't stack. The sfc is to the west. This is why they have been calling for weakening. As I posted on the model thread this morning...when all the globals are calling for something...it's prudent to at least pay attention.

Whether or not it recovers? Who knows. I think it will...but it will take some time...but what is going on now lends credence to global model solution of a yucatan / southern gulf track.

OK...off to bed. Gotta work in the morning.

[wkwally]

I will not let my guard down just yet but if it falls apart it will make me avery happy camper

Well, you better hope that SOME of it stays together, because Texas really needs the rain....If it falls apart too much, none of the moisture may even make it to Texas...

The area of Texas I am in is not that bad. rain is always welcome but not a major hurricane

[brunota2003]

Not sure...but I have seen hurricanes with pressures of 1001 mb before.

[brunota2003]

Hm...is recon heading home? They were only supposed to be on station until 2 am, right?

[Janie2006]

Post edited as AFM effectively confirmed my hypothesis.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050603
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 49 20120805
055500 1430N 07246W 8432 01572 0117 +148 +126 169045 046 035 007 00
055530 1431N 07244W 8431 01572 0114 +153 +120 170045 045 037 005 00
055600 1431N 07243W 8430 01574 0112 +157 +116 169045 046 037 005 00
055630 1431N 07241W 8430 01574 0112 +161 +101 171046 046 039 005 00
055700 1432N 07239W 8431 01574 0117 +156 +098 171045 046 039 005 00
055730 1432N 07238W 8430 01578 0119 +158 +076 170046 047 039 005 00
055800 1432N 07236W 8428 01580 0120 +159 +071 171045 046 038 006 00
055830 1433N 07235W 8428 01583 0121 +159 +085 173043 045 037 009 00
055900 1433N 07233W 8433 01579 0122 +156 +113 167037 042 040 010 00
055930 1433N 07232W 8433 01578 0124 +148 +133 170034 035 039 011 00
060000 1434N 07230W 8431 01580 0127 +147 +128 173035 036 038 010 00
060030 1434N 07228W 8430 01582 0134 +130 +130 171036 037 032 008 01
060100 1434N 07227W 8427 01584 0127 +146 +131 171038 039 033 006 00
060130 1434N 07225W 8432 01584 0129 +149 +126 170038 039 031 003 00
060200 1435N 07223W 8427 01588 0128 +150 +126 170035 037 030 004 00
060230 1435N 07222W 8433 01583 0131 +147 +123 169036 036 031 002 00
060300 1435N 07220W 8429 01586 0132 +147 +125 168036 037 030 002 00
060330 1436N 07219W 8429 01588 0131 +150 +120 167034 036 027 004 00
060400 1436N 07217W 8429 01588 0130 +150 +128 168035 036 028 003 00
060430 1436N 07215W 8431 01586 0130 +150 +129 168034 035 030 002 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Looks like they just updated the 2 am advisory...15.0 and 73.7 (right where the sonde was dropped) with a pressure of 1009

[brunota2003]

They just updated the 2 am advisory...15.0 and 73.7 (right where the sonde was dropped) with a pressure of 1009...calling that, um well...something, the center.

[brunota2003]

Homeward bound!

000
URNT15 KNHC 050613
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 50 20120805
060500 1437N 07214W 8430 01588 0131 +154 +128 168035 035 031 003 00
060530 1437N 07212W 8426 01591 0130 +149 +117 169035 036 030 004 00
060600 1437N 07211W 8224 01792 0122 +143 +120 167032 034 030 004 03
060630 1438N 07209W 7948 02078 0115 +128 +115 151024 030 030 004 03
060700 1438N 07208W 7520 02540 0101 +115 +097 131024 025 /// /// 03
060730 1438N 07206W 7178 02931 0098 +092 +077 122019 023 /// /// 03
060800 1439N 07205W 6965 03189 0114 +073 +062 124017 017 031 002 00
060830 1439N 07203W 6954 03212 0127 +071 +050 136017 018 029 002 00
060900 1439N 07200W 6966 03200 0127 +075 +047 140017 018 029 003 00
060930 1440N 07158W 6966 03196 0122 +074 +044 140020 021 029 001 00
061000 1440N 07156W 6787 03399 0109 +064 +038 143020 022 030 002 00
061030 1441N 07154W 6509 03736 0097 +044 +033 118015 017 030 002 03
061100 1441N 07153W 6266 04047 0089 +032 +024 096018 019 027 001 00
061130 1441N 07151W 6129 04226 0089 +020 +014 097022 024 028 001 00
061200 1442N 07149W 6007 04389 0079 +014 +010 096023 023 025 002 00
061230 1442N 07148W 5889 04545 0074 +006 +003 097022 023 027 002 00
061300 1442N 07146W 5791 04682 0071 -002 -005 101021 022 028 002 00
061330 1443N 07145W 5676 04848 0069 -008 -013 101024 025 029 003 00
061400 1443N 07143W 5517 05074 0052 -013 -024 110025 026 031 002 03
061430 1443N 07141W 5339 05335 0249 -025 -039 110023 025 029 003 03
$$
;

[Dave]

Had to reboot my system...

000
URNT12 KNHC 050606
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 05/05:15:00Z
B. 15 deg 01 min N
073 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1500 m
D. 43 kt
E. 045 deg 35 nm
F. 109 deg 43 kt
G. 037 deg 75 nm
H. 1009 mb
I. 15 C / 1524 m
J. 20 C / 1568 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF307 0505A ERNESTO OB 13
MAX FL WIND 52 KT NE QUAD 04:17:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 47 KT E QUAD 05:57:30Z

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050613
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 50 20120805
060500 1437N 07214W 8430 01588 0131 +154 +128 168035 035 031 003 00
060530 1437N 07212W 8426 01591 0130 +149 +117 169035 036 030 004 00
060600 1437N 07211W 8224 01792 0122 +143 +120 167032 034 030 004 03
060630 1438N 07209W 7948 02078 0115 +128 +115 151024 030 030 004 03
060700 1438N 07208W 7520 02540 0101 +115 +097 131024 025 /// /// 03
060730 1438N 07206W 7178 02931 0098 +092 +077 122019 023 /// /// 03
060800 1439N 07205W 6965 03189 0114 +073 +062 124017 017 031 002 00
060830 1439N 07203W 6954 03212 0127 +071 +050 136017 018 029 002 00
060900 1439N 07200W 6966 03200 0127 +075 +047 140017 018 029 003 00
060930 1440N 07158W 6966 03196 0122 +074 +044 140020 021 029 001 00
061000 1440N 07156W 6787 03399 0109 +064 +038 143020 022 030 002 00
061030 1441N 07154W 6509 03736 0097 +044 +033 118015 017 030 002 03
061100 1441N 07153W 6266 04047 0089 +032 +024 096018 019 027 001 00
061130 1441N 07151W 6129 04226 0089 +020 +014 097022 024 028 001 00
061200 1442N 07149W 6007 04389 0079 +014 +010 096023 023 025 002 00
061230 1442N 07148W 5889 04545 0074 +006 +003 097022 023 027 002 00
061300 1442N 07146W 5791 04682 0071 -002 -005 101021 022 028 002 00
061330 1443N 07145W 5676 04848 0069 -008 -013 101024 025 029 003 00
061400 1443N 07143W 5517 05074 0052 -013 -024 110025 026 031 002 03
061430 1443N 07141W 5339 05335 0249 -025 -039 110023 025 029 003 03
$$
;

Mission is over....

[brunota2003]

Wasn't just you...I had issues, too.

[Dave]

Wasn't just you...I had issues, too.

I lost all connects, got the infamous internal server error, but my system has been dragging for the past 3 hrs, needed to reboot it anyway.

[brunota2003]

Here are the numbers from the recon poll (Note that these numbers represent flight level winds, not surface winds):

Code: Select all

What will the max winds found during recon be?

Less than 45 knots        5%     5%     [ 2 ]
45 to 49 knots            2%     2%     [ 1 ]
50 to 54 knots            2%     2%     [ 1 ]
55 to 59 knots            25%     25%  [ 10 ]
60 to 64 knots            35%     35%  [ 14 ]
65 to 69 knots            20%     20%  [ 8 ]
70 knots or greater       7%     7%     [ 3 ]
Total votes : 39

MAX FL WIND 52 KT NE QUAD 04:17:30Z

Congrats to whoever the only person to pick correctly was!

[stephen23]

Hi all, I am new to this site. I am no met all all what so ever. Is that some new banding that I am seeing on the last two water vapor images?

[Dave]

Next mission..

FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 72-
A. 05/1200, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0605A ERNESTO
C. 05/0930Z
D. 15.5N 74.5W
E. 05/1130Z TO 05/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

G'night world!