ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

This is from a few hours ago. Recon is back in now and found the pressure back down to 961. They also just found 75kt surface winds. Still a hurricane.

[wxman57]

There was talk that Maria is now moving NW. Don't assume that recon reported the exact center of the very large eye each pass. Looking at a 3-hr loop on satellite, I calculate a movement toward 049 deg (NE) at about 4-5 kts. Previous 3 hours, I get 317 deg (NW) at 8 kts. Maria was moving NW between 1345Z and 1645Z. Since then, it slowed and turned NE. Probably observing wobbles left and right.

[wxman57]

From San Juan Weather office, here's the status of the radar:

000
NOUS62 TJSJ 251947
FTMJUA

MESSAGE DATE: SEP 25 2017 19:47:00

TJUA (NEXRAD IN CAYEY, PR) WAS ABUSED BY MARIA. AS A RESULT THE
RADOME DIVORCED THE TOWER AND RAN AWAY WITH ONE DEPENDENT, THE
ANTENNA. RECONCILIATION WILL HOPEFULLY BE COMPLETED IN 3 TO 6
MONTHS. MARIA FLED THE SCENE HEADING NORTHWEST. SHE IS CONSIDERED
ARMED AND DANGEROUS--DO NOT ATTEMPT TO APPREHEND.

[WeatherGuesser]

Radar on GR3 appears to be suspended in time at the moment of the offense.

TSJU appears to have gone walkabout too.

[EquusStorm]

Near 38.5 ACE currently. Can she break 40 and hold it on the best track before going post-tropical? Maybe! Kinda hoping for more records while we're at it

[1900hurricane]

Near 38.5 ACE currently. Can she break 40 and hold it on the best track before going post-tropical? Maybe! Kinda hoping for more records while we're at it

I think we'll make it. 70 kt is 0.49 ACE every six hours or about 2 ACE/day. There's obviously going to be some weakening, but unless Maria completes extratropical transition considerably earlier than currently predicted, 40 ACE will be obtained. It's worth noting that no satellite era NAtl season has ever had three or more individual systems break 40 ACE (not sure about pre-satellite era). Additionally only 3 WPac seasons have done so since 1970. 1997 (most active on record) had six(!) and 2004 and 1992 (second and third most active, respectively) each had three apiece.

[1900hurricane]

Funky.

[emeraldislenc]

Looks more organized

[CrazyC83]

Maria still seems to be moving almost due north.

I wonder if the filling has adjusted the steering currents at all?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

MARIA has a v/large area of storm force winds

[Hammy]

Outer bands starting to move in.

[wxman57]

No 64kt winds on the first two passes through the center by recon this morning. Max I saw was about 62kts, which would be enough to keep it a hurricane on the next advisory. Doesn't look like much of an impact across the Outer Banks next 24hrs. NE winds 25-35 mph in general, with occasional showers. Might see a report or two of 40 mph winds. No heavy squalls, though.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder - once Maria makes the easterly turn, breaking free of Jose's wake, could it get one more chance to restrengthen? Especially if it turns at a fairly low latitude.

[EquusStorm]

I'm still surprised that Jose's wake was so significant. One would think it'd have recovered slightly, especially over the Gulf Stream. Imagine how different a storm we'd be looking at if it had tracked west of the wake.

[emeraldislenc]

If she had tracked more west it would have been a different situation. The sun is now out here.

[txwatcher91]

No 64kt winds on the first two passes through the center by recon this morning. Max I saw was about 62kts, which would be enough to keep it a hurricane on the next advisory. Doesn't look like much of an impact across the Outer Banks next 24hrs. NE winds 25-35 mph in general, with occasional showers. Might see a report or two of 40 mph winds. No heavy squalls, though.

The issue here isn't the wind but the surge in the sounds. The OBX sound side is now under a surge warning with 2-4 feet of inundation across the area and 15-25 foot waves on the ocean side that will cause heavy erosion. The wind and rain impact will be minimal but the surge and erosion will cause issues for a lot of businesses and residents in the area.

[WeatherGuesser]

The Magic 40 yet?

[wxman57]

No 64kt winds on the first two passes through the center by recon this morning. Max I saw was about 62kts, which would be enough to keep it a hurricane on the next advisory. Doesn't look like much of an impact across the Outer Banks next 24hrs. NE winds 25-35 mph in general, with occasional showers. Might see a report or two of 40 mph winds. No heavy squalls, though.

The issue here isn't the wind but the surge in the sounds. The OBX sound side is now under a surge warning with 2-4 feet of inundation across the area and 15-25 foot waves on the ocean side that will cause heavy erosion. The wind and rain impact will be minimal but the surge and erosion will cause issues for a lot of businesses and residents in the area.

The tides may be closer to 2 ft above normal than 4 ft, so 2-3 ft would be more accurate. Forecast for Duck Pier (northern Outer Banks) is for tides a little over 2 ft above normal next day or two. This is due to the large waves moving into the coast. Highest projections I can find are about 2.5 ft above normal. Still, tides a couple of feet above normal for such a flat area is a problem.

[txwatcher91]

No 64kt winds on the first two passes through the center by recon this morning. Max I saw was about 62kts, which would be enough to keep it a hurricane on the next advisory. Doesn't look like much of an impact across the Outer Banks next 24hrs. NE winds 25-35 mph in general, with occasional showers. Might see a report or two of 40 mph winds. No heavy squalls, though.

The issue here isn't the wind but the surge in the sounds. The OBX sound side is now under a surge warning with 2-4 feet of inundation across the area and 15-25 foot waves on the ocean side that will cause heavy erosion. The wind and rain impact will be minimal but the surge and erosion will cause issues for a lot of businesses and residents in the area.

The tides may be closer to 2 ft above normal than 4 ft, so 2-3 ft would be more accurate. Forecast for Duck Pier (northern Outer Banks) is for tides a little over 2 ft above normal next day or two. This is due to the large waves moving into the coast. Highest projections I can find are about 2.5 ft above normal. Still, tides a couple of feet above normal for such a flat area is a problem.

[img]http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/msl/data/ncduck.gif[/mg]

From what I read in the storm surge warning, they are expecting 2-4 feet of inundation on the sound side of the OBX which will definitely cause some big problems if that verifies. Already the coast guard hydro gauge is measuring nearly 3 feet and moderate flooding begins at 3.5 feet. Cedar Island is at 2.4 feet and moderate flooding begins at 4 feet there. The duration of the winds and large area will continue to pile the waters up the next 24 hours and usually experience around this area tells me the sounds rise a bit more than forecast most of the time.

[WeatherGuesser]

Somebody call for an evacuation of this thread?

Hello?