ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2981 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:34 am

jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:Orlando TV Mets that last night were pretty much calling the all clear for FL last night now their voice is shaking showing the forecast track that has shifted west and reluctant to show the latest GFS run or 06z Euro run.
They were foolish calling the all clear in this setup. Oh well, there is time to prepare.


These were pro mets saying this? Really? Not smart at all on their part. They should know better. Every season we see those dreaded words "the all clear". I wish I had 20 bucks for every time I hear this. I wish people would stop saying that until the NHC officially says the threat is over!
2 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2982 Postby artist » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:37 am

northjaxpro wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:Orlando TV Mets that last night were pretty much calling the all clear for FL last night now their voice is shaking showing the forecast track that has shifted west and reluctant to show the latest GFS run or 06z Euro run.
They were foolish calling the all clear in this setup. Oh well, there is time to prepare.


These were pro mets saying this? Really? Not smart at all on their part. They should know better. Every season we see those dreaded words "the all clear". I wish I had 20 bucks for every time I hear this. I wish people would stop saying that until the NHC officially says the threat is over!

Seems to happen every time.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3391
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:
Contact tropicwatch

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2983 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:38 am

Pressure continuing to drop.
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Top
User avatar
ObsessedMiami
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 431
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: West Kendall, Fl

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2984 Postby ObsessedMiami » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:38 am

Happened here in this thread also
5 likes   
Top
User avatar
wzrgirl1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1325
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2004 6:44 am
Location: Pembroke Pines, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2985 Postby wzrgirl1 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:41 am

toad strangler wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
Yeah if it shifts significantly more west they'll extend those watches into Broward and Miami Dade counties. As far as impacts, we don't know yet. Broward could get anything from a light breeze to cat 2 hurricane conditions.
Just returned from the gas station with my Genny fuel, people were there filling up the gas cans.


I'm at 45 gallons treated and stored away. Fully prepared since the end of May. I usually do that every year but this year I went the extra mile. Gonna be a long season.


I only have about 15 gallons. I bought a portable air conditioner which is being delivered today.
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1409
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am
Location: Cayo Hueso

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2986 Postby Jr0d » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:41 am

northjaxpro wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
NDG wrote:Orlando TV Mets that last night were pretty much calling the all clear for FL last night now their voice is shaking showing the forecast track that has shifted west and reluctant to show the latest GFS run or 06z Euro run.
They were foolish calling the all clear in this setup. Oh well, there is time to prepare.


These were pro mets saying this? Really? Not smart at all on their part. They should know better. Every season we see those dreaded words "the all clear". I wish I had 20 bucks for every time I hear this. I wish people would stop saying that until the NHC officially says the threat is over!


I would like to know what channel...just so I can see how they are handling the latest developments today.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1649
Age: 34
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper, AL
Contact:
Contact EquusStorm

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2987 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:43 am

Actually looking a little better in the last couple hours. NHC calling for a bit more intensification is probably pretty reasonable
0 likes   
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2988 Postby SFLcane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:43 am

here in sunrise lines already at walmart! Not to long before water is all but gone.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2989 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:43 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:Happened here in this thread also


You would think people would learn over the years, especially in weather in general and the tropics. I guess in life as well:

My rule of thumb ALWAYS : NEVER assume and NEVER say the word NEVER
4 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
eastcoastFL
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3901
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2007 12:29 pm
Location: Palm City, FL

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2990 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:43 am

Kat5 wrote:Half naked swirl coming up.


Are you trolling?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5479
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2991 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:43 am

jlauderdal wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
Bimms wrote:They have not issued any Hurricane watches for Broward County yet, just from Palm Beach going up. I wonder if with the next advisory, if it continues to shift west, will we see that. Also what are your thoughts for the Central to Northern Broward area. Do you think there will be any impacts based on what you see now?


Yeah if it shifts significantly more west they'll extend those watches into Broward and Miami Dade counties. As far as impacts, we don't know yet. Broward could get anything from a light breeze to cat 2 hurricane conditions.
Just returned from the gas station with my Genny fuel, people were there filling up the gas cans.


If track and model trends don't wobble east during the next 6 hours, I don't see how NHC doesn't add T.S. Watch (and possibly Warning) for at least Broward county
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Top
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2992 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:44 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Just returned from the gas station with my Genny fuel, people were there filling up the gas cans.


I'm at 45 gallons treated and stored away. Fully prepared since the end of May. I usually do that every year but this year I went the extra mile. Gonna be a long season.


I only have about 15 gallons. I bought a portable air conditioner which is being delivered today.


Good idea on the portable air conditioner. Please stay safe Wendy.
1 likes   
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4030
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2993 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:44 am

eastcoastFL wrote:
Kat5 wrote:Half naked swirl coming up.


Are you trolling?

No i think he’s right in this case. It’s temporary.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
lhpfish
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 83
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2011 5:01 pm

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2994 Postby lhpfish » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:44 am

Can someone overlay the forecast points and the current center point?

Would be interesting to see.
0 likes   
Top
hipshot
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 591
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2995 Postby hipshot » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:45 am

Aric Dunn wrote:About another 4 to 6 hours on the current heading and SE florida very likely wont escape landfall. IT would have to turn shaper than the models/NHC show.


Yep, if the high pressure area to its northeast is strong enough, this puppy might even make the Keys and Florida straight. THAT WOULD NOT BE GOOD.
JM2C though.
2 likes   
Top
Cat5James
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Fri Sep 06, 2019 7:54 pm

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2996 Postby Cat5James » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:45 am

chaser1 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
Yeah if it shifts significantly more west they'll extend those watches into Broward and Miami Dade counties. As far as impacts, we don't know yet. Broward could get anything from a light breeze to cat 2 hurricane conditions.
Just returned from the gas station with my Genny fuel, people were there filling up the gas cans.


If track and model trends don't wobble east during the next 6 hours, I don't see how NHC doesn't add T.S. Watch (and possibly Warning) for at least Broward county

Broward county has been under a TS watch since yesterday... Today it was upgraded to a TS warning...
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2997 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:46 am

lhpfish wrote:Can someone overlay the forecast points and the current center point?

Would be interesting to see.

Still SW of forecast points per Blown Away
0 likes   
Michael 2018
Top
Kat5
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:28 pm

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2998 Postby Kat5 » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:47 am

eastcoastFL wrote:
Kat5 wrote:Half naked swirl coming up.


Are you trolling?


No...

The shear is getting to its core for the time being. That anti-cyclonic feature south of it, isn’t doing it any favors for right now. Just an amateur observation.
0 likes   
Top
tallywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 790
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 10:19 am
Location: Raleigh/Durham, NC

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#2999 Postby tallywx » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:47 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Kat5 wrote:Half naked swirl coming up.


Are you trolling?

No i think he’s right in this case. It’s temporary.


Quite the opposite. Bahamas radar shows convection encircling the largest portion of the center than it has all morning.
0 likes   
Top
Vdogg
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:56 am

Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#3000 Postby Vdogg » Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:48 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:Happened here in this thread also

No more than an hour ago this was supposed to be a"naked swirl". :lol:
3 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests