ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[KWT]

Ed, I think the ECM track is pretty close to what will actually happen, it could hit Florida or it may stay offshore. I think the GFS is too agressive bringing down that trough based on previous experiences with that model at digging troughs at higher lattiudes...I've had plenty of experince being at 52N

[Texas Snowman]

It might be an ECFL storm, but at this point, given modeling trends and Hanna's move north today, I think Ike is bound for Miami or the Keys.

[gatorcane]

IMO, If the NHC thinks Ike will miss Florida then we should start to see a significant bend near the end of the 5 day track starting at 5pm. I still think the Hebert Box rule applies and Ike is going to miss that mark (20N/60W) to the N and miss SFL and maybe affect the Carolinas N. Just my 2 cents.

Don't count on it. The NHC forecast probably won't clear anything up today. They'll have it pointed generally at south Florida without much hint of a turn sharply enough to miss Florida. Even on my track which takes it to NC, if you look at just the first 5 days then it isn't clear it'll miss Florida.

alright Wxman -- so Ike is getting me a little nervous here in Palm Beach County on the East Coast of Florida near West Palm Beach...

I'll hopefully look for some good news from you and other mets as the days progress.

[Texas Snowman]

Part of my reasoning for a monster 'cane sitting off SE Florida in several days is simply this - with the exception of Fay - the NHC has been superb on track guidance this year.

[gatorcane]

Alot of things can change beyond 5 days....so I'm not sold on a Florida hit yet.

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...



THU...LATEST NHC TRACK FOR TC HANNA REMAINS FARTHER EAST AND IS FCST
TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE DAY ON THU. HANNA WILL TRACK
NW-NNW UP INTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAHAMA CHAIN DURING THE DAY BUT
KEEP IN MIND THAT A CERTAIN DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN BOTH
THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE
CURRENT NHC GUIDANCE CAN DRASTICALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST NHC ADVISORIES. DUE TO A GREAT DEAL OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REDUCE POPS TO ONLY SCHC DURING THE
DAY. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THU AND GUSTY AT TIMES.
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE ALONG THE COAST AND MARINE AREAS
WITH BEACH EROSION...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...AND ROUGH SURF
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...WITH HANNA FCST TO MOVE PARALLEL THE FL EAST COAST
AND WELL OFFSHORE...SCT SHRA AND SOME SQUALLS WILL BE MOST COMMON
OVER THE ATLC...WITH OCNL ENCROACHMENT INTO THE COASTAL COS...
ESPECIALLY WHILE THE CENTER IS SOUTH OF ABOUT 27N/28N AND THE FLOW
STILL HASA SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE COMPONENT. HANNA`S FOREWARD SPEED
WILL LIMIT DURATION OF SIGNIFICANTLY DETERIORATED WX OVER LAND -
ONCE IT REACHES ABOUT 29N...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FLOPA AROUND TO
NW/OFFSORE AND CONDS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY. WILL LIKELY NEED EITHER
A WIND ADVISORY OR A LK WIND ADVISORY OVER THE COASTAL COS...BUT
MAY NOT NEED ANYTHING MORE THAN "WINDY" VERBIAGE FOR THE INTR.
TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO GIVEN THE CONTINENTAL (NW-W)
TRAJECTORY.

SAT-WED...MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT NHC TRACK PUSHES HANNA WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA BY SAT MORNING. AS THE T.C. MOVES NORTH...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING
OVER THE AREA. RELATIVELY LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL THEREFORE EXIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GREATER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF WHAT SHOULD BE HURRICANE IKE. NHC FORECAST
CURRENTLY HAS IKE BECOMING A MAJOR HURCN MOVING NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES BY THIS WEEKEND...INTO THE BAHAMAS MON...WITH THE HPC/NHC
COORD DAY 6-7 PTS UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO ECFL...TO SAY THE LEAST.



SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI

discount anything that cristaldi guy says when he does discos..painfully inaccurate

[Texas Snowman]

There's no doubt about that, but I was thinking similar thoughts about Gustav a few days ago (thinking he would turn more towards the upper Tx coast) and he barreled right on in on the NHC's track.

Wherever Ike is headed for, I think that for at least a part of his lifetime, he will be the biggest 'cane of the year so far and perhaps the biggest for the season (biggest in terms of intensity).

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is that AJCJ3 (sp?) our MLB area pro-met?

[jlauderdal]

Is that AJCJ3 (sp?) our MLB area pro-met?

yes

[Weatherfreak000]

Still think this storm is going to make the Gulf. The model runs are definitely as expected shifting.

[AJC3]

discount anything that cristaldi guy says when he does discos..painfully inaccurate

jlauderdal ---> <--- AJC3

[gatorcane]

Still think this storm is going to make the Gulf. The model runs are definitely as expected shifting.

You can have Ike. I don't mind a strong TS or weak hurricane but I don't want anything to do with this one I can tell you....

[deltadog03]

discount anything that cristaldi guy says when he does discos..painfully inaccurate

jlauderdal ---> <--- AJC3

HAHAHAHAHA

[shah8]

I am almost *afraid* of what the next hwrf is going to say. I suspect it's going to dip deeper like the gfdl, but not AS deep, and it will show a WNW slingshot into Dade and WPB counties at some ungodly pressure...

[gatorcane]

well if you do an animated loop of the NHC 5 day cone....and look at the day 5 (last) data point...

Ike already looks to be recurving away from Florida...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[SouthFLTropics]

discount anything that cristaldi guy says when he does discos..painfully inaccurate

jlauderdal ---> <--- AJC3

HAHAHAHAHA

That is priceless

[Trader Ron]

MET on MSNBC mentioned Ike a Cat 3 next Monday.

[BOPPA]

From all this talk - so far - I'm glad that I am on the
SWFL coast. OR - am I ??

[Brent]

discount anything that cristaldi guy says when he does discos..painfully inaccurate

jlauderdal ---> <--- AJC3

[KWT]

Whilst the HWRF is useless for pressure I feel its idea of a powerful cat-4 hurricane near the Bahamas is looking increasingly possible though I think its track may be a touch too far north by 120hrs but its not too extreme and obviously such a strong system brings back memories of Floyd.