ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

1800z: 60 knots.

200810141800 13.8 -68.9 60

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL152008

[tolakram]

Derek's sat images are also proving there worth. You can see the ring here too.

[RL3AO]

The pressure doesn't seem to be dropping.

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 18z:

AL, 15, 2008101418, , BEST, 0, 138N, 689W, 60, 982, TS

60 knots

[Just Joshing You]

I'm not -removed-, forecasting, anything like that, but I wouldn't be surprised if this developed the dreaded pinhole eye. It just looks soo sexy.

[caribepr]

Well, msbee, there's your warning...

TROPICAL STORM OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
2100 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...ANTIGUA
AND BARBUDA...AND FRANCE...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

[HURAKAN]

Now Cat 2 before leaving the Caribbean:

Forecast valid 16/0600z 18.0n 64.3w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 30se 15sw 10nw.
50 kt... 50ne 60se 35sw 30nw.
34 kt...100ne 120se 70sw 60nw.

[Driftin]

I heard that at this time of the year storms have very erratic motions and are very hard to predict there future track. What are the chances that the forecast track changes?

[fci]

It seems to me to be pretty rare for this area to be hit by a storm coming from the Southwest.

Besides Wrong Way Lenny, how many have there been??

[CrazyC83]

Discussion: A "conservative" 60 kt, and further rapid deepening is possible.

[cycloneye]

It seems to me to be pretty rare for this area to be hit by a storm coming from the Southwest.

Besides Wrong Way Lenny, how many have there been??

[HURAKAN]

WOW

1992: "Super Typhoon Omar was the 15th tropical depression (15W), the 15th named storm." Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Omar

2008: Tropical Storm Omar is the 15th tropical depression, and the 15th named storm.

[bvigal]

Oh I'm so glad I read that... NOT!!
I've seen too many storms change drastically in intensity forecasts in only a few hours. It's still the most difficult part of the forecast. I hope this doesn't get any stronger, but honestly, while it's in the Caribbean, I don't see anything to stop it.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

NE turn commenced.

RI Look.

St Croix in extrapolated track. I'd be raising the hurricane flags in St Croix fast!

[HURAKAN]

Famous Typhoon Omar footage from Yigo, Guam:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1GtQr7eL-k

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2008 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 14:02:00 N Lon : 68:34:49 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 983.7mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.4 4.6 4.7

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.1mb

Center Temp : -76.4C Cloud Region Temp : -81.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.2T/12hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[dixiebreeze]

Omar sure looks like a hurricane now in the latest IR loop.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Very strong convection over Puerto Rico.