What is the future of this season?

[psyclone]

well this is a weather board full of storm fanatics so when someone tries to pour cold water on the parade in mid august they're probably not gonna be well received. and that says nothing of the lack of logic inherent in such a premature call. on another note, this year is kinda the opposite of 1992 which was a slow season overall with a huge disaster. even today everyone says "think of 1992...it only takes one". The converse is 2010 where a bunch of whoppers doesn't guarantee a big hit. it makes sense to play the odds but sometimes the long shot comes in. it looks like we're beating the odds in 2010... we gambled and won.

[Stormcenter]

I never gambled anything.

We need to all accept the fact that
even with today's science it
is still VERY VERY difficult to predict
the weather. I just don't understand how
anyone can predict that an area in particular
is more likely to have a tropical system then another
3-4 months out. Heck the NWS and others have
hard time predicting the weather 1 week out.

well this is a weather board full of storm fanatics so when someone tries to pour cold water on the parade in mid august they're probably not gonna be well received. and that says nothing of the lack of logic inherent in such a premature call. on another note, this year is kinda the opposite of 1992 which was a slow season overall with a huge disaster. even today everyone says "think of 1992...it only takes one". The converse is 2010 where a bunch of whoppers doesn't guarantee a big hit. it makes sense to play the odds but sometimes the long shot comes in. it looks like we're beating the odds in 2010... we gambled and won.

[DanKellFla]

CONUS, For the win.

I'll take that any year. Now I have a case of bottled water to drink and gas to use in my mower. May every year be as this year for the US.

[Stormcenter]

I'll toast to that.

CONUS, For the win.

I'll take that any year. Now I have a case of bottled water to drink and gas to use in my mower. May every year be as this year for the US.

[KWT]

Compared to what could have happened this year certainly has been a very decent one for the states, in fact for most of the basin's landmass its been good considering just how many storms there have been, only really Alex, Earl, Igor and Karl have caused any real major problems...and even those storms weren't mega damaging storms...and in a season likely to end up between 16-19NS if it ends like that then thats going to be good news...compared to what could have been had that upper trough not been ultra presistant.

[psyclone]

KWT, that's the point i was trying to make...you just did it better. then again, with 26k+ posts under your belt, you should do better!

[Steve]

>>What I'm saying is that people seem to have an easier time slamming someone if their predictions are wrong about an active season. That's fine, but then they should also expect to hear about it if not much happens between October and December(even though it was forecasted by some)....don't you agree???? Funny how it's one sided that way.....

I actually do agree, and I read most of your posts. You're not on my ignore list either. But I would still caution you from calling them out until the season is over. On October 7th, it's not over. We have a named STS out there in the Western Basin. And there will probably be a couple to a few more before it's all said and done. But if nothing materializes, I'd personally encourage you to name names and dish out some crow because you're right. What's fair is fair. We don't know what's going to happen over the next 60 days. Everything could shut down, or we might see another burst of activity in the SW Atlantic or Caribbean that will help define what 2010 was. That's what I was all about from the beginning, patience. I think that's the right approach to take. As you well know, people get into state-casting and wobble wars and are territorial about this stuff. It can get juvenile. Same thing with predictions. That stuff can be fun, but it can also lead to be people fiercely defending their agenda based on their prediction scheme which is stupid. I'm like you. If I'm wrong about something, I'll be the first to admit it.

[Florida1118]

And again we still have the 2nd peak coming up. Didnt we have a poll about how many storms for Oct.? The winner was 4 I think...

[HurrMark]

Just to give you an idea of how lucky the US has been this year, I went back over the last 100 years to find seasons that had one or fewer storms making landfall with winds of 40 mph or less. I only found four:

1922
1930
1962
1990

Even the "famous" 1914 one-storm season was more active for the US, since the one storm hit the US as a strong TS. And 1962 is debatable, since Alma's center came within a few miles of Cape Hatteras, and there were some decent gusts well over TS strength on the Cape.

There is still another month or so where a storm could potentially make landfall, but the window is closing pretty quickly.

[psyclone]

yet another outstanding data set hurrmark. it is astonishing just how fortunate we've been this year. it sure is nice not to have to worry about anything in my area. around here, as the fat lady warms up the water is cooling off and fast with an 8 to 10 degree drop in the past couple of weeks.

[dwsqos2]

I would call this season a bit more impactful than 1914. Hermine produced sustained winds a hair greater than 50 knots with gusts to near hurricane force in Harlingen, Tx. So, a strong TS (>50 knots) affected Texas. Also, I can find METARs with gusts as high as 61 knots from coastal North Carolina during Earl. At least one gust a bit greater than 70 knots was reported by a station with marine exposure as well; the anemometer height was near the standard 10 m AGL (well in this case ~10 m ASL).

Granted, by the decadal standard, it has been pretty blah for the U.S.

[Frank2]

We need to all accept the fact that
even with today's science it
is still VERY VERY difficult to predict
the weather. I just don't understand how
anyone can predict that an area in particular
is more likely to have a tropical system then another
3-4 months out. Heck the NWS and others have
hard time predicting the weather 1 week out.

And that's why the NHC/HRD Directors of the 1980's did not want to follow the CSU way of starting to write hurricane forecasts months in advance, since the Directors of that time correctly believed that it served no purpose - other than to give the media a reason (as they do) to sensationalize a press release...

Some say the long-range forecasts help Governments prepare for a busy season, but again the NHC/HRD thinking of the 1980's said that preparation should be a constant - not just when a busy season is forecast...

As said many weeks ago, this season is very similar to 1981:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

as compared to this year's map:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2010.asp

when the subtropical ridge was mostly an Azores high, instead of a Bermuda high - and is a blessing to us all...

My advice - stop listening to the University research crowd and instead follow the operational crowd, since operational meteorologists, unlike the "publish or perish" University crowd, are there to forecast what is "on the map", as they used to say at the NHC, and are not dependant on a computer model that spits out disaster scenarios weeks in advance - only to be wrong...

Frank

[Stormcenter]

Great post Frank2!

We need to all accept the fact that
even with today's science it
is still VERY VERY difficult to predict
the weather. I just don't understand how
anyone can predict that an area in particular
is more likely to have a tropical system then another
3-4 months out. Heck the NWS and others have
hard time predicting the weather 1 week out.

And that's why the NHC/HRD Directors of the 1980's did not want to follow the CSU way of starting to write hurricane forecasts months in advance, since the Directors of that time correctly believed that it served no purpose - other than to give the media a reason (as they do) to sensationalize a press release...

Some say the long-range forecasts help Governments prepare for a busy season, but again the NHC/HRD thinking of the 1980's said that preparation should be a constant - not just when a busy season is forecast...

As said many weeks ago, this season is very similar to 1981:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

as compared to this year's map:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2010.asp

when the subtropical ridge was mostly an Azores high, instead of a Bermuda high - and is a blessing to us all...

My advice - stop listening to the University research crowd and instead follow the operational crowd, since operational meteorologists, unlike the "publish or perish" University crowd, are there to forecast what is "on the map", as they used to say at the NHC, and are not dependant on a computer model that spits out disaster scenarios weeks in advance - only to be wrong...

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

I just really wish the NHC would stop predicting how many hurricanes will make landfall in the US. It's absurd and completely useless AND inaccurate... I usually just ignore that prediction because it's silly. They might as well just draw numberts out of a hat.

I'm fine with them predicting how many storms they believe are going to develop, but they shouldn't waste their time predicting how many they think will or will not affect the USA, because they have absolutely no clue....2010 is a great example of that.....I

[cycloneye]

With Otto being upgraded to hurricane, 2010 is now at 15/8/5, close to what the experts said in their preseason forecasts. Not bad considering the slow start in June,July and until Mid August. Some may say wimpy systems like Bonnie ,Gaston and Nicole should not count, but even if they last 6 hours,they count.

[StormClouds63]

I just really wish the NHC would stop predicting how many hurricanes will make landfall in the US. It's absurd and completely useless AND inaccurate... I usually just ignore that prediction because it's silly. They might as well just draw numberts out of a hat.

I'm fine with them predicting how many storms they believe are going to develop, but they shouldn't waste their time predicting how many they think will or will not affect the USA, because they have absolutely no clue....2010 is a great example of that.....I

The average "John Doe" probably thinks the 2010 season was inactive since no storms affected the U.S. A case can be made that seasonal forecasts themselves aren't terribly relevant. Every year, the public needs to be educated regarding hurricane preparedness, regardless of whether a busy or inactive year is predicted. I'm not sure seasonal forecast numbers should even be released to the public.

[ConvergenceZone]

I just really wish the NHC would stop predicting how many hurricanes will make landfall in the US. It's absurd and completely useless AND inaccurate... I usually just ignore that prediction because it's silly. They might as well just draw numberts out of a hat.

I'm fine with them predicting how many storms they believe are going to develop, but they shouldn't waste their time predicting how many they think will or will not affect the USA, because they have absolutely no clue....2010 is a great example of that.....I

The average "John Doe" probably thinks the 2010 season was inactive since no storms affected the U.S. A case can be made that seasonal forecasts themselves aren't terribly relevant. Every year, the public needs to be educated regarding hurricane preparedness, regardless of whether a busy or inactive year is predicted. I'm not sure seasonal forecast numbers should even be released to the public.

StormClouds63, actually the reason you state is the reason that I don't think they release numbers.
For example, people are going to think, "Wow, I thought 2010 was going to be active?" "Where's all the storms that
suppose to have hit the usa?", and what it will probably do is cause complacency, and the next time the landfalling numbers are put out, the reaction will be "yea right, I don't believe it.."....I'm speaking for the general public. I wouldn't think that, because I know better not to pay attention to those numbers , but you are right, the average joe will pay attention.....

[DanKellFla]

OK folks, stick it with a fork. It's done. All I see are Highs that would push anything back to sea even if it did form. Other than south of Haiti, the wind shear is unfavorable.

[HurrMark]

I would call this season a bit more impactful than 1914. Hermine produced sustained winds a hair greater than 50 knots with gusts to near hurricane force in Harlingen, Tx. So, a strong TS (>50 knots) affected Texas. Also, I can find METARs with gusts as high as 61 knots from coastal North Carolina during Earl. At least one gust a bit greater than 70 knots was reported by a station with marine exposure as well; the anemometer height was near the standard 10 m AGL (well in this case ~10 m ASL).
[/QUOTE]

It's pretty subjective...I am running off a strictly statistical basis. Hermine was probably more a Texas storm than Mexico storm overall, but the landfall was in Mexico, and Earl did have some impacts on the US...not to mention rip currents from other recuving storms, which did cause fatalities unfortunately. It's a bit harder to quantify this on a 2-D (spatial coverage) scale than 0-D (landfall point). Nevertheless, overall, this season is certaintly in the bottom quartile in terms of US impact.

Granted, by the decadal standard, it has been pretty blah for the U.S

Interestingly, assuming there are no hurricanes making landfall for the rest of the season, 5 of the last 11 seasons would have zero US landfalling hurricanes. I doubt there is a period in recorded history like that...even during the historically inactive periods.

[jinftl]

One thing that is interesting to do is to go back to prior threads from earlier in the season---there were so many folks doubting we would even have an average # of storms as late as July.

I guess it comes down to this - even a guess can prove to be correct, but if someone's prediction for a season can't be backed up by science, have they really shown anything except that they happened to luck out and guess right?