Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[Stormcenter]

Here is a closer look at the area.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Another area to watch that is associated with the same trough ... is just south of LA. satellite, radar and surface obs indicate a surface circ and convection is on the increase. neither of the two area are very organized but both still need to be watched closely as it is that time of year..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

Well just to show that there is still some potential for this whole mess. It is clear there is a broad area of low pressure in the central and western gulf associated with a old trough. There is also ( as I mentioned before ) 2 areas within this complex system that have small circ's/eddy's although most models do not have significant development there are couple the NAM ( although not the best model for the tropics) is persistent on developing a small but organized system over the next 24hrs. The rest of the models dont show much more than a weak Low that meanders around for a couple days then moves inland which in most cases I would go with the better models but the system is still there and until is completly gone it needs to be watched. Although I do not think anything significant will come from it ( at this time ) the possibility still exists especially if a more consolidated circ were to develop farther off the coast somewhere along the trough axis. Here is another one of my rough analysis depicting the current low level flow for the area.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[HURAKAN]

latest

[lrak]

the spin by Louisiana looks to be tighting up a bit.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

On Visiable Satellitte looks to be south of Lafayette LA Offshore at 27.6 92.0 We'll see if it develops..

[Wx_Warrior]

2 lows competiting right now. 1 south of Lafayette and 1 east of Mexico.

Could be sneaky.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

27.6 92.0 Shows up nicely on Visiable

[Stormcenter]

This has got my attention but as it has been for most of the entire season so far conditions are not favorable in the GOM right now. IMO We shall see.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[lrak]

This has got my attention but as it has been for most of the entire season so far conditions are not favorable in the GOM right now. IMO We shall see.

My thoughts exactly

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Well Offshore conditions are favorable but near the upper Coast little to much shear at 250 mb.

[Wx_Warrior]

One week from this Sunday....

[poof121]

Plenty dry air too...

[Flyinman]

I just hope we do not have a cry wolf syndrome this year. In 2008, there were many concerns for Southeast Texas with named storms. One, I think Gustav, was cause for evacuation and turned out to be a non event for the most part for the area. Then 10 days later, there was talk of a storm named Ike. Many residents were tired of hearing the hype and decided to ride the storm out. Well, we all know the result of that storm. This year we have had very few actual threats, but there have been many forecasts of storms, floods, etc. that have not come true. I have been following the Gulf closely this year and have not liked the looks of things as September is always our month. I will feel a lot better if we make it through next month without any more tropical systems.

[poof121]

I just hope we do not have a cry wolf syndrome this year. In 2008, there were many concerns for Southeast Texas with named storms. One, I think Gustav, was cause for evacuation and turned out to be a non event for the most part for the area. Then 10 days later, there was talk of a storm named Ike. Many residents were tired of hearing the hype and decided to ride the storm out. Well, we all know the result of that storm. This year we have had very few actual threats, but there have been many forecasts of storms, floods, etc. that have not come true. I have been following the Gulf closely this year and have not liked the looks of things as September is always our month. I will feel a lot better if we make it through next month without any more tropical systems.

I was thinking the same thing. We've been under TS warnings twice this year (Bonnie and TD #5), both with nothing to show for it. In 2005, I seriously think it would have been much worse during Katrina if it weren't for Cindy in July, which ended up making landfall as a minimal CAT 1. It gave a clear reminder for those of this generation who had never seen a direct hurricane impact. Hopefully, we won't have to go through that again.

[HURAKAN]

I agree that this may be nothing at the end but I think we can't compare the situation now to how it was a month ago. Just look into the open Atlantic, Danielle, Earl and Fiona very soon. In the heart of the hurricane season, anything is possible.

[Stormcenter]

Well this one made have the same fate as the others but it's still the only game close to home and believe me I'm not complaining.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[setxndnfan]

One week from this Sunday....

and what happens then?

[Wx_Warrior]

Just wanted to show there could be activity again in GOM next week...Another L in the SW gulf. JB and others hinted towards wgom action in the next week.

[lrak]

Welcome setxndnfan! Wait till the next model run and he'll show you

[Steve]

18Z NAM puts a spin into S MS and another into Brownsville. Neither look serious though they have that "tropical look" on simulated radar. We've seen a lot of that this year on the Gulf Coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Biggest rainfall threat (60 hours) shows 9" in FL/AL. That was over us the past few days, so perhaps any flooding potential is farther east now if the NAM has it progged close to what happens over the 3.5 day period.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml