ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[chrisjslucia]

is it just an illusion of all the scattered storms in the area or is this going to be a large storm if it gets going?

It's the rainy season here, thank heavens or we'd be thirsty next year. Your question is a good one as 92L seems, as we sit endlessly beneath it, to be a closer to the Emperor's new clothes than anything else. If I'm wrong, I know I will pay for that remark. But I wish this damn thing or these damn things would gain some speed and give us a break from the gloom. Then we can be free to worry about IGOR.

[cycloneye]

is it just an illusion of all the scattered storms in the area or is this going to be a large storm if it gets going?

It's the rainy season here, thank heavens or we'd be thirsty next year. Your question is a good one as 92L seems, as we sit endlessly beneath it, to be a closer to the Emperor's new clothes than anything else. If I'm wrong, I know I will pay for that remark. But I wish this damn thing or these damn things would gain some speed and give us a break from the gloom. Then we can be free to worry about IGOR.

It looks like the worse of the bad weather has moved west of St Lucia, so things should improve for you.

[Gustywind]

[SouthFLTropics]

Someone predicted earlier today that convection would die out around 10:00PM tonight...Seems like that was a good call...

SFT

[dwsqos2]

The gfs remains unimpressed with 92L. Pressures have risen in proximity to the disturbance, so it's not as if the gfs is miles from verification in the very short term. It may be curtains for another western Atlantic system.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EDIT-The gfs is also not impressed with the wave rolling off Africa; Igor may be the only game in town for some time.

[Florida1118]

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BEEN MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ROCK]

well the NHC is impressed... GFS or not....50% and already flying into it...

[Steve]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html

A little burst down there tonight. Should be getting interesting by the end of the weekend with a potential Islands, US and/or Mexican threat for next week. ECMWF is southerly and into the BOC. GFDL slams the Yucatan. HWRF sits over Haiti and the Dominican Republic and heads just NE of the eastern tip of Cuba.

[KWT]

This one still has plenty of energy and isn't weakening IMO like the GFS keeps trying which is IMO makes the GFS solution very questionable given its clearly holding its own.

I've seen enough in terms of energy from this one to make the ECM solution probably the most likely with a developing storm in maybe 48hrs...

[tolakram]

Someone predicted earlier today that convection would die out around 10:00PM tonight...Seems like that was a good call...

SFT

Well, yes, I predicted the outflow from the storms over SA would hit around 10pm ... looks like they hit a little later, during the eclipse, and it appears it's enhanced convection a bit.

Here's the latest loop I can make from the NRL.



You can see the outflow wave approaching from the south. Latest image shows a boundary just hitting the main area of convection ... so it appears I was about 6 hours off or this is a second boundary from those coastal storms.

[ColinDelia]

[wzrgirl1]

What a difference from last night!!

[Gustywind]

[Aquawind]

Yep..92L is looking pretty good this morning and convection continues to refire..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[expat2carib]

My guess is it remains 50% on the 8 o'clock TWO

[Aquawind]

might go 60% imo.. best looking convection yet from what I have seen..if it persists then maybe a TD later today or tonight at this rate..

[jlauderdal]

My guess is it remains 50% on the 8 o'clock TWO

i say 60 unless avila is on duty then 50

[Aquawind]

My guess is it remains 50% on the 8 o'clock TWO

i say 60 unless avila is on duty then 50

LOL Well Said..I could see even 70%..look at that blob and the rotation was already evident.. All Mets are taking a serious look this morning and RECON looks like they will fly at this point..

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N63W...ABOUT
120 NM TO THE WEST OF SAINT LUCIA...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
15 TO 20 KT DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. OTHER
COMPARATIVELY SMALLER RAINSHOWERS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT ALSO INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

$$
MT

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 915 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN