ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Frank2 · #301 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:50 am

Last night's ECMWF shows the system getting caught in a COL-type area NW of Puerto Rico, with the trough not nearly as deep as the GFS showed - any thoughts from the pro mets?

Frank

#302 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:52 am

preliminary data indicate no increase in wind, however

#303 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:56 am

Alyono wrote:preliminary data indicate no increase in wind, however

Yes, but the recon has not sampled yet the NE quadrant, where I think the strongest winds are.

#304 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 6:57 am

From 8 AM advisory.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE AIRCRAFT IS
STILL INVESTIGATING GONZALO...AND IT COULD POSSIBLY FIND STRONGER
WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM.

#305 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:05 am

Seems like Antigua will miss Gonzalo just to the south but Barbuda looks like will get hit by the strongest convection near the LLC.

#306 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:09 am

Very good radar presentation.

#307 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:28 am

Yes, but the recon has not sampled yet the NE quadrant, where I think the strongest winds are.

Plenty of TS force winds found in the NE part.

#308 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:28 am

Official 993mb reading, wow!

Recon did find 61 knot flight level winds just a few minutes ago, before the Vortex was released.

URNT12 KNHC 131157
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014
A. 13/11:35:10Z
B. 17 deg 01 min N
061 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1381 m
D. 47 kt
E. 241 deg 14 nm
F. 034 deg 54 kt
G. 274 deg 27 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 17 C / 1523 m
J. 22 C / 1525 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF305 0208A GONZALO OB 02
MAX FL WIND 54 KT 274 / 27 NM 11:24:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 185 / 09 KT
;

#309 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:39 am

The northern coast of Antigua and southern coast of Barbuda most be getting hit pretty good now with the edge of the heavy convection in that area.

#310 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:51 am

66 knots flight level winds so far.

124300 1750N 06103W 8422 01578 0123 +139 //// 088064 066 058 016 05

#311 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:09 am

Here is a good visible image of the area. Center will pass just north of the Soufriere Volcano.

#312 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:13 am

Looks like recon will find that pressure is continuing to lower.

TheAustinMan · #313 Postby **TheAustinMan** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:18 am

The center may be over Antigua right now as recon is finding TS-force winds from the southwest while SE of the island. Radar presentation looks to be that way as well.

GrimReaper · #314 Postby **GrimReaper** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:18 am

Is this just going to be another fish?

#315 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:23 am

looks like a pressure of about 990mb

and no, this is NOT a fish. It is moving over land now

#316 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:24 am

Unflagged SFMR winds of 62 knots.

131300 1656N 06151W 8423 01469 9955 +199 +167 315033 039 062 005 00
131330 1656N 06153W 8437 01458 9964 +195 +174 324038 040 062 003 00
131400 1655N 06154W 8413 01491 9982 +181 +181 336046 050 062 004 03
131430 1656N 06155W 8424 01491 //// +157 //// 344057 061 062 008 05
131500 1655N 06157W 8417 01509 0031 +161 //// 345062 064 061 014 01
131530 1654N 06159W 8423 01511 0027 +174 //// 342052 061 060 012 01
131600 1654N 06200W 8425 01516 0022 +183 +164 342048 053 056 003 00

#317 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:26 am

Looking better and better on SAT imagery. Still no sign of it gaining much latitude yet. Wouldn't let my guard down if I were in Puerto Rico despite the short-term guidance shifting more east.

Gustywind · #318 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:26 am

NDG wrote:Unflagged SFMR winds of 62 knots.

131300 1656N 06151W 8423 01469 9955 +199 +167 315033 039 062 005 00
131330 1656N 06153W 8437 01458 9964 +195 +174 324038 040 062 003 00
131400 1655N 06154W 8413 01491 9982 +181 +181 336046 050 062 004 03
131430 1656N 06155W 8424 01491 //// +157 //// 344057 061 062 008 05
131500 1655N 06157W 8417 01509 0031 +161 //// 345062 064 061 014 01
131530 1654N 06159W 8423 01511 0027 +174 //// 342052 061 060 012 01
131600 1654N 06200W 8425 01516 0022 +183 +164 342048 053 056 003 00

NDG, let's hope that Gonzalo will not reach hurricane status at 11 AM?! :roll:

TheAustinMan · #319 Postby **TheAustinMan** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:27 am

If the high-density observations on the reconnaissance holds true this could be a storm deepening at a rate of 2-3 millibars by the hour. :eek:

Given the storm's small size though its passage over Antigua may actually prove to be somewhat disruptive as we saw with Bertha earlier this year.

#320 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:28 am

gatorcane wrote:Looking better and better on SAT imagery. Still no sign of it gaining much latitude yet. Wouldn't let my guard down if I were in Puerto Rico despite the short-term guidance shifting more east.

Yeah, it took a big jog to the west the last couple of hours, it went over Antigua when I thought that it was going to miss it to the south.

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