ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

850MB vorticity map shows quite a spin to 98L:

[wxman57]

NHC is upgrading. TS Erika on model guidance. Look for the first advisory shortly.

[tolakram]

Looks like Danny continues to book west, but it seems the model guidance consensus is for it to be heading WNW by now. I wonder if we will see some west shifts with the models to account for the more west movement?

I was thinking the along the same lines. Models had Danny north of the islands and he went south. Could they be underestimating the ridge strength?

At this point I think what's left is simply following the low level flow.

Ha, if you look at this I'm not sure which way it will go. Zoom into where Danny is.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-68.61,15.34,1220

[gatorcane]

NHC is upgrading at 11pm est

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well all you people wanting an upgrade got it. Enjoy it while it lasts. The sea of tropical death is coming for Erika (Caribbean).

[SouthFLTropics]

NHC is upgrading. TS Erika on model guidance. Look for the first advisory shortly.

First advisory and track should be quite interesting...I hope Stewart is on tonight to write the discussion.

SFT

[MGC]

TS Erika advisory up on NHC site.....MGC

[gatorcane]

Track into se bahamas as a tropical storm

[SouthFLTropics]

NHC is upgrading at 11am est

Don't you mean PM

[tolakram]

I am always amazed at how fast I can be proven incorrect. I've perfected this to an art form.

[gatorcane]

NHC is upgrading at 11am est

Don't you mean PM

Yes

[NCSTORMMAN]

I am always amazed at how fast I can be proven incorrect. I've perfected this to an art form.

Same here lol.

[GeneratorPower]

Well all you people wanting an upgrade got it. Enjoy it while it lasts. The sea of tropical death is coming for Erika (Caribbean).

NHC forecast does not enter Caribbean.

[chaser1]

Please stick to 98L and not on the opinions of the NHC. There's really no room for that here or at Storm2k as a whole.

True enough, plus no one here is technically liable for the decisions that NHC need/need not make. Having said all that, plus the fact that the Ascat did show a plethora of West winds (even if they were 3-4 degrees removed from the center of an apperant circulation center)... hands down, "i'd" be classififying this a tropical depression. Ultimately though, this entire conversation is mute anyway. More importantly, how much will it intensify and where will it go will be the only factors that will really impact the lives and safety of others.

I think it may be the lack of northwest winds in this particular case that are preventing an upgrade.

Perhaps, Hammy. Then again, given the persistant convective bursting over and near the center, I could live with the NNW winds presently depicted, LOL. Plus, what do local Island officials say when they've recently had to answer for the nominal impact of an approaching Danny that residents were thinking was bearing down on them, while they may in fact get a good deal worse weather.... from a "tropical wave"? Just sayin....

[Blown Away]

Track into se bahamas as a tropical storm

You guessing?

[NCSTORMMAN]

Well all you people wanting an upgrade got it. Enjoy it while it lasts. The sea of tropical death is coming for Erika (Caribbean).

NHC forecast does not enter Caribbean.

I personally believe it will die before it even gets to the Caribbean but if it does survive it will track into the Caribbean just like Danny did.

[CrazyC83]

Tough forecast with divisive model guidance as well. I'd probably put a peak intensity in the long range at 65-70 kt, but make mention of the HWRF.

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

Track into se bahamas as a tropical storm

You guessing?

That's the official track...its up on the NHC site.

[Bocadude85]

Track into se bahamas as a tropical storm

You guessing?

No NHC has a 60kt ts in the Bahamas in 5 days