2017 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Euro bringing the time frame in now. 96 hours we'll see a low beginning to consolidate, 120 hours+ it takes off.



Why did the NHC remove the yellow marker?

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN

O_o?

[WeatherEmperor]

@kingarabian,

I think they removed it before the Euro got a chance to complete its run.


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[Kingarabian]

@kingarabian,

I think they removed it before the Euro got a chance to start its run.


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But the GFS and Euro have had this for the past 4 days, with strong ensemble support

[WeatherEmperor]

@kingarabian,

I think they removed it before the Euro got a chance to start its run.


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But the GFS and Euro have had this for the past 4 days, with strong ensemble support

Maybe the Para models? I looked at the regular Gfs and Euro for yesterday and the day before and they dont show much within 120hrs. They showed something but after the 7-8 day range. Today on the 12z I see very little within 120hrs on the regular Gfs and Euro. Theu Euro shows it getting stronger from 144hrs and beyond.


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[Yellow Evan]

The yellow marjer has been gone for 3 TWO cycles now. Look at the TWO archive.

[Kingarabian]

The yellow marjer has been gone for 3 TWO cycles now. Look at the TWO archive.

That's interesting. I thought they were right on the money when Blake circled the area for next weeks system.

[Kingarabian]

@kingarabian,

I think they removed it before the Euro got a chance to start its run.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

But the GFS and Euro have had this for the past 4 days, with strong ensemble support

Maybe the Para models? I looked at the regular Gfs and Euro for yesterday and the day before and they dont show much within 120hrs. They showed something but after the 7-8 day range. Today on the 12z I see very little within 120hrs on the regular Gfs and Euro. Theu Euro shows it getting stronger from 144hrs and beyond.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

I thought usually they put the 5 day marker out for future development, and keep the odds very low until the time frame starts to come in. The models don't show much before 5 days, but they do show the area of convection within 96hrs, which I thought is enough to warrant the 5 day marker.

[RL3AO]

I suspect it will be added to the TWO in the next 24 hours or so, unless the models lose it this evening.

[cycloneye]

If it turns out like what ECMWF has,it would boost bigtime the ACE that is right now below normal.

[RL3AO]

As Klotzbach pointed out. There hasn't been a cat 2+ storm in the entire northern hemisphere in 2017. Maybe the EPac can break that next week.

[Kingarabian]

If it turns out like what ECMWF has,it would boost bigtime the ACE that is right now below normal.

Agreed. Intensifying Cat.2 moving west into more favorable conditions. Also starts to show the 2nd system behind it @ the 240hr frame. EPS showing strong support for a 2nd system behind Eugene as well.
That would bring the outbreak to 3 total storms including Dora, with all 3 becoming hurricanes.

July I believe, typically sees 3-4 storms and since it's early and because the Euro I believe keeps a nice CCKW over the EPAC, we could still see more systems through mid to late July

Basically means that the EPAC will be trending towards another above average/hyperactive season for what would be 4th the straight season...

[Kingarabian]

As Klotzbach pointed out. There hasn't been a cat 2+ storm in the entire northern hemisphere in 2017. Maybe the EPac can break that next week.

Heavy argument can be made that Dora was a strong Cat.2 at its peak.

[cycloneye]

As Klotzbach pointed out. There hasn't been a cat 2+ storm in the entire northern hemisphere in 2017. Maybe the EPac can break that next week.

Heavy argument can be made that Dora was a strong Cat.2 at its peak.

Maybe a change at post season.

[Kingarabian]

Euro pulls a fast one; now developing that initial system again that Blake circled in 3 days ago. Development begins in 48-72hrs.

Euro also continues to develop a 3rd system behind it similar to the GFS.

[cycloneye]

No mention at 5 PM PDT TWO.

[Kingarabian]

Euro is not playing games. Development in 72 hours on the first system, 2nd system bottoms out at 950mb.

[Kingarabian]

Euro is developing this wave:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 30 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$ Forecaster Landsea

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS albeit weaker, is now coming in line with the Euro showing 3 back to back systems, with the second system dominating.

I'm fully expecting a marker from the NHC by the next TWO since development starts in 2 and a half days.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS para bombs first system.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS para bombs first system.

Cycloneye, I believe that's the second system. Look at how it swallows up the first and third systems though. Crazy!