Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#301 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:34 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:We could have TD 13 soon...

Also, what, if any, would be its prospects of getting across?

I don't believe any of the models take it across at this time.

#302 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:38 pm

This is the current computer model thinking. No westward progression is forecasted.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #303 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:43 pm

I believe as it turns with the shear(If it is at 45 west) I believe this could try to become quite strong as it is moving northward or northeastward. We will see.

#304 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:51 pm

Right now the system exhibits a powerful circulation, but all the convection is well-removed to the east. Let see if the shear subsides in the next days for the system to have a better shot of becoming a TD.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #305 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:52 pm

I think the LLC on this is more organized then 12s. Once this turns with the shear it could get interesting. Maybe more then 12s.

8-)

#306 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 5:52 pm

skysummit wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:We could have TD 13 soon...

Also, what, if any, would be its prospects of getting across?

I don't believe any of the models take it across at this time.

K gotcha. Thanks.

#307 Postby **bvigal** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:12 pm

I'm just not buying those models re: due north - not yet, anyway. Anyone run the dvorak loop in the last hour? It looks like it's moving to the sw - maybe just a wobble.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

superfly · #308 Postby **superfly** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:15 pm

bvigal wrote:I'm just not buying those models re: due north - not yet, anyway. Anyone run the dvorak loop in the last hour? It looks like it's moving to the sw - maybe just a wobble.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

A tropical low does not "wobble," but the center can relocate.

#309 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:16 pm

I really like that Dvorak loop but it still appears to be moving almost due west.

<RICKY>

#310 Postby **bvigal** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:23 pm

superfly wrote:
bvigal wrote:I'm just not buying those models re: due north - not yet, anyway. Anyone run the dvorak loop in the last hour? It looks like it's moving to the sw - maybe just a wobble.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

A tropical low does not "wobble," but the center can relocate.

Oh, you are right! Didn't even think of that (long day). So it has just moved maybe 1deg S., according to lat/lon overlay, as it goes west.

skufful · #311 Postby **skufful** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:24 pm

Well, it sure either looks like there is a southerly componenet, or a wobble. On that view, it looks pretty good for a low.

superfly · #312 Postby **superfly** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:28 pm

It's moving around 260-265 right now, just a little south of due west.

#313 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:30 pm

superfly wrote:It's moving around 260-265 right now, just a little south of due west.

hmm upon closer examination perhaps you are correct. I was wrong.

<RICKY>

clfenwi · #314 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:36 pm

I think it is an error to focus on the convection as being indicative of the movement. The SAB position estimate this afternoon placed the center at 38.2 West and the Tropical Weather Discussion placed it at 36 West... both positions were west of the convection. Had the center been closer, the system probably would have received intensity numbers higher than 1.5.

Looking at the visible loop here: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html,

I think I see the feature that SAB was calling the center. Following that along indicates a due west movement (to my eyes at least).

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #315 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:41 pm

If that convection was over it it would have a 2.5 t. This thing is a depression with 1.5. But the nhc is not going to upgrade something that is not organizing.

#316 Postby **bvigal** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:43 pm

Hey clfenwi, I agree with you about following convection. It sure can fool the eye, like an optical illusion. Even if it hasn't moved south of west, I still think it looks pretty healthy on the dvorak. I hope it continues builds quickly, so it can go fishing in the cold water that much sooner!! (and that won't be a very popular viewpoint here, I know :wink:

)

#317 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 6:43 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:If that convection was over it it would have a 2.5 t. This thing is a depression with 1.5. But the nhc is not going to upgrade something that is not organizing.

True. I just wonder how long it will be before it does start to get better organized.

<RICKY>

clfenwi · #318 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:10 pm

Evening TWD comments:

1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 780 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 17N39W...ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 23N ALONG 39W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL E OF THE
CENTER DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
33W-37W.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #319 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:12 pm

The freaking upper shear is getting all these systems out there this year. But I expect once it turns to the north it will get its act together.

clfenwi · #320 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:17 pm

Well, I haven't watched the water vapor loop continously today, so I'm not familiar with all of the features and how they are moving. That said, looking at the current shear analysis from CIMSS, it does look like the system is moving into a favorable enviroment.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

That would be confirmed if and when new convection fires up and is not 3+° east of the center

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