99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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flhurricaneguy
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#301 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:06 pm

wow the models have changed since this morning. nothing had it coming up the east coast, what changed to cause the changes in the models?
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#302 Postby curtadams » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:07 pm

I think there's some overreaction here. This thing is not even a tropical *low* yet. Both NHC and Accuwx say it *might* develop in *2-3 days* i.e., about when it arrives on the Nicaraguan coast. Even that would likely be a Jose situation - TS fires up as it move onshore. Frontpaging it seems sensationalistic.
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EDR1222
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#303 Postby EDR1222 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:07 pm

Probably a little to early to tell as it has not developed yet.

It sure seems as though the Gulf has a bullseye on it right now, just as Florida seemed to last year.
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CHRISTY

#304 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:08 pm

what do you mean? can someone post the very lastest models for invest 99L!
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#305 Postby mtm4319 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:09 pm

CHRISTY wrote:what do you mean? can someone post the very lastest models for invest 99L!


They're on page 15.
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flhurricaneguy
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#306 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:11 pm

is the area its in favorable for development?
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#307 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:13 pm

12z Euro develops something out of it

Image
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#308 Postby hicksta » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:13 pm

Currently Yes
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Mathias
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#309 Postby Mathias » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:13 pm

At the invest's current location, do the BAMM & BAMD models hold any relevance? I know that the BAM models are best used in the deep tropics, I just want to know if it is still deep enough in the tropics for these models to be reliable.
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#310 Postby Stratosphere747 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:15 pm

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... mex.cf.gif

Latest GOM SST chart...

Lets just say portions of the GOM is more then warm enough to sustain a significant hurricane. Hopefully 99 goes *poof*
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#311 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:15 pm

thats shows something in the bahamas i dont get it?
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#312 Postby WindRunner » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:20 pm

WOW 99L wasn't here when I left at 6:30 this morning, but I get home and there is a 20 page thread. Guess our first Caribbean system in two months is causing some hype!
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flhurricaneguy
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#313 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:21 pm

the bamm shouldnt be used above 20 n. so where is its current location?
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#314 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:23 pm

WindRunner wrote:WOW 99L wasn't here when I left at 6:30 this morning, but I get home and there is a 20 page thread. Guess our first Caribbean system in two months is causing some hype!

Yup it sure is especially with those boiling SSTs around it and favorable
environment... :wink:
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#315 Postby djtil » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:30 pm

fwiw...dfw afd mentions models showing low crossing yucatan and into western gulf by monday.
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#316 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:34 pm

I've never seen such a wide range of opinions on the forecast track of this invest. Some
say the Yucatan and the western Gulf, others say the central or Eastern GOM, and still others
say up the East Coast of FL.

Until we have a legitimate system that the models can initialize properly on, it's mere
speculation at this point.
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flhurricaneguy
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#317 Postby flhurricaneguy » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:39 pm

its the only thing going on right now thats close enough to care about.
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#318 Postby hicksta » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:40 pm

boca_chris wrote:I've never seen such a wide range of opinions on the forecast track of this invest. Some
say the Yucatan and the western Gulf, others say the central or Eastern GOM, and still others
say up the East Coast of FL.

Until we have a legitimate system that the models can initialize properly on, it's mere
speculation at this point.


I personaly think its gonna be a monster cat 5 867 mb 200 with 250 gust going straight over baco raton :wink:
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#319 Postby Canelaw99 » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:42 pm

Exactly. This is the first day since Sep. started where we don't have a named system, according to TWC. We have to keep ourselves entertained somehow :wink:
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krysof

#320 Postby krysof » Mon Sep 26, 2005 3:45 pm

We will be entertained for most of October, maybe even November. That caribbean wave is showing signs of development. I'm also watching a wave to the southwest of the cape verde islands. Good convection with it, and it has persisted since yesterday. The TWO hasn't mentioned this yet, but I have a good feeling they will if it persists to tomorrow.
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