TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[f5]

2005 Hurricane season in a nutshell
The Assault on Urban Populations

Katrina-New Orleans
Rita-Houston/Galveston
Wilma-Tampa Bay?

Rita didnt assault Houston and Galveston. And Katrina assaulted the MS coast moreso than it did NO (but yeah u can use NO for that).

rita might not of made a direct hit but she sure caused a Historic traffic jam by scaring people with that cat 5 satallite image.what i'm trying to say here is that this year seems like an attack upon major americans cities just like last year the target was flordia only this time its the cities turn. and that resulted in alot of chaos.

[tornadochaser86]

anyone know why models saying its only strengthening to cat2? i thought they said waters very warm and its in a low shear environment?

[AussieMark]

SST


Oceanic Heat


Depth of 26C

[ameriwx2003]

anyone know why models saying its only strengthening to cat2? i thought they said waters very warm and its in a low shear environment?

Well take a look at the 0Z EURO. it is bringing a powerful Hurricane into the SE Gulf towards Western Florida in the 168 Hour period.. Still Early but it looks like an October surprise maybe in store for someone in the Eastern Gulf later this week

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KMFL 160743 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR THE MARINE SECTION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
ALSO LOCATED MAINLY SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE TODAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS ALLOWING THE SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY.
THEREFORE...PLAN ON SAYING THAT THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXTREME
SOUTH...AND PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS FOR TODAY.

THE TROUGH SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTH GULF COAST REGION MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DRY WEATHER
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND
REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. SO NO PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH THE DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE CWA...TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S...AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST
COAST...AND IN THE 60S FOR THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THIS IS WERE THE FORECAST BECOME VERY UNCERTAIN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #24 IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE THE DEPRESSION TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BY LATE THIS
WEEK...AS DO THE NHC FORECAST CENTER. AFTER THAT...WE WILL HAVE TO
WAIT TO SEE WHERE THE DEPRESSION GOES FOR THIS WEEKEND.

SO HAVE INCREASE THE POPS TO THE CHANCE CAT FOR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPRESSION...AND INCREASE THE WINDS OVER THE CWA DO TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE HIGH
TO THE NORTH. REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGES
UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION #24.

LATEST INFORMATION ON THE DEPRESSION #24...REFER TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY 10 EARLY THIS MORNING WAS REPORTING 9 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 12 SECONDS. THESE SWELLS WILL MIGRATE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY AND SHOULD BE AROUND 5 FEET OVER PALM BEACH WATERS
AND AROUND 3 FEET FOR MIAMI-DADE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY. THEREFORE...THE
COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND THE SWELLS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO BE
6 TO 9 FEET IN PALM BEACH WATERS....AND 4 TO 7 FEET IN REST OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...DUE TO THE WINDS AND THE SWELLS.

THE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEAKENS. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FEET BY MONDAY IN PALM BEACH WATERS AND 3 TO 5
FEET IN REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND THEN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE THIS WEEK...DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE DEPRESSION
TO THE SOUTHWEST. SO THE SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AGAIN TO 5 TO 7
FEET BY LATE THIS WEEK IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR-
SHORE AND UP TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE BY LATE THIS WEEK.

AGAIN...THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF DEPRESSION #24.
SO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE DEPRESSION #24...REFER TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE
CRITICAL VALUES FOR ALL OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD FALL
DOWN INTO THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS TODAY AND
TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY...DUE TO THE DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE CWA
FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 71 86 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 74 86 75 / 0 0 0 0
MIAMI 87 74 87 76 / 0 0 0 0
NAPLES 86 68 87 69 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SCA FOR SEAS FOR ZONES AMZ650...AMZ651...AMZ670...AND AMZ671
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

BAXTER

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KMLB 160722
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
322 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...DRYING CONTINUES TODAY IN THE H8-H3 LYR WITH MID LVL NW FLOW
AROUND THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND THE DEEP LOW ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. PWATS DROP TO AROUND .75 INCHES ACROSS THE N AND 1 INCH
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE BELOW H8 FOR SOME AFTN
CUMULUS...OTHERWISE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL ALLOW FLOW
TO VEER FROM NNW/N EARLY TODAY TO NNE/NE THIS AFTN. NE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE BEACHES WITH AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BE M CLR OVERNIGHT THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW CSTL
STRATOCU WITH NE FLOW AT H9. LOWS TEMPS IN THE 60S...AROUND 4 DEGS
BELOW NORMAL.

MON-TUE...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S./CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS
NORTHWARD SLOWLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED LESS THAN AN
INCH SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL
WEAKEN AND SAG SOUTH SO THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN...WHICH WILL
MITIGATE MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE OFF THE ATLANTIC.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

WED-SAT...FORECAST STARTS TO GET TRICKY DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD BY THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS. OF COURSE
THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY WHEN DEALING WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS FAR SOUTH...THIS LATE IN THE SEASON AND THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST.
HAVE NOT CHANGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH AS A RESULT...AS THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO START INCREASING ON WED OR THU...WITH MOISTURE
SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH BY THU AND
AREAWIDE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. HAVE GONE WITH 30 PERCENT POPS FOR
SAT WITH THE THOUGHT BEING THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME KIND OF TREND
TO INDICATE THAT EVENTUALLY RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE.

&&

.MARINE...WILL KEEP EXERCISE CAUTION FOR CONTINUED MDT NE SWELLS
ACROSS THE CSTL WATERS TODAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT WITH NNE
WINDS BECOMING NE NEAR 10 KNOTS. SEAS FORECAST TO DIMINISH MON AND
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES CLOSER TO THE AREA. SHOULD
SEE A CHOPPY WIND WAVE RETURN BY WED OR THU AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE
TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN THAT IS PROGGED TO BE
DRIFTING NORTH.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOWEST DWPTS PROGD ACROSS LAKE COUNTY IN THE MID-UPR
50S THIS AFTN WHICH SHOULD DROP MIN RHS TO BETWEEN 35-40 PCT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS (MAINLY WEST OF I-4 CORRIDOR). WINDS ONLY EXPECTED
FROM 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTN SO NO NEED TO RAISE
FLAGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 64 85 62 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 87 62 87 63 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 84 65 85 67 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 84 67 86 67 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KEYW 160711
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
315 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES. ONLY ABOUT
SEVEN DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A SHEAR LINE IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A DIFFUSE AND WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR HEIGHTENED ARIEL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE UPPER
AND MIDDLE KEYS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST. LOW CHANCE
POPS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE KEYS SOUTHWARD UNTIL THE SHEAR LINE AND
ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE DISSIPATES...MOST LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST BELOW ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24...LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA...SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE MAKING A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MORE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24 WILL FOLLOW IN THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THIS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
TO THE WEST OVER MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH MAY ALLOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24 TO MOVE TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DEPICTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 24 AS CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WILMA OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA THURSDAY. THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD POSE A THREAT TO
THE KEYS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 24. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE OUTER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24 DRAWS
CLOSER TO THE KEYS. PWAT VALUES SHOULD INCREASE ABOVE TWO INCHES
WEDNESDAY. POPS...CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS WILL BE INCREASED FOR THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY PORTION OF THE ZONE FORECASTS FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24 WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL RESULT IN FRESH
NORTHEAST BREEZES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS COULD
INCREASE THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24 DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
KEYS.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR PILOTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION TODAY. WHEN PLANNING YOUR FLIGHT
BE SURE TO CHECK THE LATEST METARS...AIRMETS/SIGMETS...AND CENTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES.

EXTENSIVE LAYERED CLOUDS WITH CIGS FL035-045 WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
ROUTE MIAMI TO KEY WEST...AND AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. THE TOP OF
THIS BROKEN-OVERCAST LAYER WILL BE APPROX FL150.

WITHIN THIS CLOUD MASS THERE WILL OCCUR EMBEDDED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
WITH MVFR CIGS FL020-030 AND VSBYS 3-5SM...AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AOB
1000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS 04015G25KT MAY PRODUCE CROSS WINDS GREATER THAN 10KT
ON AREA RUNWAYS...AS WELL AS A LIGHT CHOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 86 78 86 78 / 30 20 10 20
MARATHON 87 78 86 78 / 30 20 10 20

&&

.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS............MS



[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 160702
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
215 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GOOD WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AND ON
MONDAY AS RIDGING OVER THE AREA EXPANDS WITH A HIGH CENTER MOVING
OVER THE SOUTH US BY MONDAY. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER FLORIDA WILL
BECOME EASTERLY BY MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE SINKS SOUTHWARD. 00Z TBW
SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY MID LEVEL LAYER PROFILE WITH PW VALUE OF
0.9 AND STABILITY INDICES DEPICTING A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE.
STARTING TUESDAY A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE EAST WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PROMPT INCLUDING
POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MORNING LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
AND AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST POSSIBILITIES FROM 24 HOURS AGO! IN PARTICULAR...00Z GFS
RUN NOW SHOWING WHAT COULD BE WILMA MAKING A DIRECT RUN FOR THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND. ITS WAY TOO SOON TO GET EXCITED ABOUT
THIS...BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON WHAT IS
NOW TD 24 IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FORECAST TO HEAD TOWARD WESTERN
CUBA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
IN THE MEANTIME...A WARM AND DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA. WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS (MID AND UPPER) FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE GOOD CHANCE OF THE LOW BEING SOMEWHERE OVER THE SE OR
S CENTRAL GULF. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REGARD TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FROM THU NIGHT STRAIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...
SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS/FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL TRACK OF TD 24. &&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AT THIS TIME IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT THE CURRENT
DRYING TREND WILL PUSH RH VALUES INTO CRITICAL LEVELS. THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR COUNTIES...WITH AN HOUR OR
TWO OF RH DROPPING INTO THE MID 30 PERCENT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 87 67 87 68 / 00 00 00 00
FMY 87 66 88 67 / 00 00 00 00
GIF 87 65 87 66 / 00 00 00 00
SRQ 86 64 87 68 / 00 00 00 00
BKV 86 55 87 59 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....NP

[TampaFl]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This upper level set up looks like Katrina's/Rita's. Strong upper level high over the system. Very faverable upper levels with very low shear. This is going to get interesting when this thing chooses to light off.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Anonymous]

anyone know why models saying its only strengthening to cat2? i thought they said waters very warm and its in a low shear environment?

Trust me...they are warm enough. I am very worried we have another Category 4 hurricane on the horizon, but...Katrina and Rita showed me who's boss...and became Category 5's.

[caneman]

I don't have any doubts this could wind up to a Cat. 4 or 5 in the Caribb. but after having gone to the beach - Clearwater Beach yesterday I noticed the water had cooled quite a bit so it would seem this storm at most would be Cat . 2 or 3 on the Eastern Gulf. Could some post a Water temp graphic for Eastern Gullf

[AussieMark]

I don't have any doubts this could wind up to a Cat. 4 or 5 in the Caribb. but after having gone to the beach - Clearwater Beach yesterday I noticed the water had cooled quite a bit so it would seem this storm at most would be Cat . 2 or 3 on the Eastern Gulf. Could some post a Water temp graphic for Eastern Gullf

[Anonymous]

I don't have any doubts this could wind up to a Cat. 4 or 5 in the Caribb. but after having gone to the beach - Clearwater Beach yesterday I noticed the water had cooled quite a bit so it would seem this storm at most would be Cat . 2 or 3 on the Eastern Gulf. Could some post a Water temp graphic for Eastern Gullf

Yea...considering it goes north of Charley...more towards Tampa/Cedar Key. But, from the looks of things, If this does hit Florida at this point, I would expect the strike to be Keys up to Fort Myers...with my favorite vacation spot of Marco Island, and my dad's favorite vacation spot, Sanibel Island...right in the path.

We still don't know if it will strengthen in the Gulf yet.

[AussieMark]

anyone know why models saying its only strengthening to cat2? i thought they said waters very warm and its in a low shear environment?

Trust me...they are warm enough. I am very worried we have another Category 4 hurricane on the horizon, but...Katrina and Rita showed me who's boss...and became Category 5's.

strong canes have formed historically in this region

i.e

Hattie 1961 - category 5
Roxanne 1995 - category 3
Lili 1996 - category 3
Mitch 1998 - category 5
Lenny 1999 - category 4
Iris 2001 - category 4
Michelle 2001 - category 4

so I agree with your fears that we could have another potent storm on our hands and the waters in NW Caribbean are still very warm and have a decent depth to em also

[tracyswfla]

I don't have any doubts this could wind up to a Cat. 4 or 5 in the Caribb. but after having gone to the beach - Clearwater Beach yesterday I noticed the water had cooled quite a bit so it would seem this storm at most would be Cat . 2 or 3 on the Eastern Gulf. Could some post a Water temp graphic for Eastern Gullf

Yea...considering it goes north of Charley...more towards Tampa/Cedar Key. But, from the looks of things, If this does hit Florida at this point, I would expect the strike to be Keys up to Fort Myers...with my favorite vacation spot of Marco Island, and my dad's favorite vacation spot, Sanibel Island...right in the path.

We still don't know if it will strengthen in the Gulf yet.

Mike, I do not like that scenario! btw Happy belated birthday~

[johngaltfla]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


This forecast is totally amatuer and take it for such. No -removed- is involved and its based mostly off NHC and other models. This is a predicted path and will be updated and changes. All points are 12 hour periods

Intensity Forecast:
Current: 30 mph
12 hours: 40 mph
24 hours: 50 mph
36 hours: 63 mph
48 hours: 75 mph
60 hours: 90 mph
72 hours: 100 mph
84 hours: 105 mph
96 hours: 115 mph
108 hours: 120 mph
Past this point is extremely uncertain

Forecast Path:

Personally speaking, the residents of Sarasota County and Punta Gorda probably hope you're very, very wrong with this forecast.

[Skyline]

Let me introduce you to my little friend . . . Charlie Duh.

Hey I think with all the Gulf/Florida bias . . . what if this thing tracks up the East coast of Florida? Ala the CMC, but to the left? It could be like 1999 with Denis and Betsy then Floyd and all the flooding. Ophelia and Tammy managed to dump over 30" of rain in the southeast this year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Let me introduce you to my little friend . . . Charlie Duh.

Hey I think with all the Gulf/Florida bias . . . what if this thing tracks up the East coast of Florida? Ala the CMC, but to the left? It could be like 1999 with Denis and Betsy then Floyd and all the flooding. Ophelia and Tammy managed to dump over 30" of rain in the southeast this year.

An Alternative Scenario:
Or it could cross Florida and emerge out in the atlantic and then create
some nasty conditions for Carolinas- like Charley did...just a possibility
but something east coasters need to watch...

[cycloneye]

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FO 24L

INITIAL TIME 6Z OCT 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.0 79.3 250./ 2.9
6 17.0 79.4 312./ 1.2
12 16.9 79.4 188./ 1.4
18 16.9 79.2 82./ 1.4
24 17.0 79.2 51./ .6
30 17.1 79.3 336./ 1.7
36 17.5 79.3 350./ 3.5
42 17.8 79.6 315./ 4.3
48 18.1 80.0 308./ 4.7
54 18.2 80.6 285./ 6.0
60 18.5 81.0 301./ 4.3
66 18.5 81.4 279./ 3.6
72 18.8 81.7 308./ 4.4
78 19.3 82.1 321./ 5.5
84 19.7 82.5 317./ 5.8
90 20.2 82.8 330./ 5.7
96 20.7 83.1 329./ 5.3
102 21.4 83.4 336./ 7.9
108 22.2 83.7 342./ 9.0
114 23.3 83.8 351./10.5
120 24.4 84.2 342./11.2
126 25.5 84.1 4./11.8


6z GFDL.Anyone has the graphic for this GFDL run?