Forget the cool front. Latest NWS is backing off on it based on new model guidance. It will virtually have no impact on temps and bring just a nominal chance of rain - basically a 10% chance. Thank La Nina and the Bermuda High washing up fronts as they approach. It's like a big deflector shield over FL right now:
000
FXUS62 KMFL 040143
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 PM EDT MON APR 3 2006
.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO EVENING UPDATES EXCEPT TO
ADD PATCHY FOG. GRADIENT FLOW HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND LIGHT S TO SW WINDS
DEVELOPING. COULD EVEN HAVE SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG BUT DO NOT
THINK IT WILL BE EXTENSIVE AS DRY AS IT HAS BEEN RAINWISE.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SOUTHWARD TO NORTH FLORIDA BY TONIGHT...APPROACH
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATEST SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE IS NOT SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC SCALE
DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT MUCH VERTICAL MOTION OR CHANCES OF PRECIP. IN
ADDITION...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK WITH ANY POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKING IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA REDUCED...WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT IMPACT ON MINIMUM OR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN STABLE
AND INHIBIT MUCH CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FLORIDA LATER ON THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...AS THE REGION IS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND WITH
VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE THEREAFTER WHEN THE WINDS INCREASE.
FIRE WEATHER...WHILE THE FRONT DISCUSSED ABOVE IS EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK IN TERMS OF ASSOCIATED WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE
IMPACTS...THERE WILL BE SOME DRYING OUT AT THE SURFACE AS
REFLECTED IN THE SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW 35 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
99
NWS MIA Confirms a Strong Bermuda High, a Precursor?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
CHRISTY
-
CHRISTY
-
CHRISTY
THE RIGDE AGAIN WILL BE IN CONTROL!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2006
ADDED SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AND INTO E PALM
BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER N FLA THIS MORNING TO EASE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL FLA TODAY. SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO LAKE OKEE AREA THIS
EVENING...DRAGGING MORE SLOWLY S THROUGH S FLA WED. FRONT STALLS
THEN DISSIPATES/GETS NUDGED OFFSHORE INTO ATLC WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRES CENTERED BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY...MOVES SE INTO N FLA WED NIGHT AND OFFSHORE THU. HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE TO BE DISPLACED SUN INTO MON AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO N/CENTRAL FLA.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION QUITE MEAGER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WILL NOT PLACE MENTION IN ZONES TODAY AND WED. NOT TO SAY THAT WITH
SEA/LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
LATE AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE OKEE AND OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA.
MODELS HINT AT A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT OVER EASTERN S
FLA/JUST OFFSHORE WED WHICH MAY GENERATE MORE MINUTE SHOWERS
AFFECTING MAINLY THE E AND ATLC OFFSHORE. BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREA...AGAIN THE SITUATION BLEAK FOR RAIN BUT SPRINKLES
NOT RULED OUT.
TEMPS WARM A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTERIOR AND E TODAY ON DEVELOPING SW
FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT. MIN TONIGHT NEAR NORMS WITH NEAR NORM MAX/MIN
TEMPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. TEMPS CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMS
REMAINDER OF WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...COOLING SOME EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NEXT FRONT/CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THU WITH
DIRECTIONS SW TODAY BUT BECOMING VARIABLE TUE THROUGH WED WITH
STALLING/DISSIPATING FRONT OVER AREA BUT NO PROBLEMS WITH BOATING.
THU ON WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2006
ADDED SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AND INTO E PALM
BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER N FLA THIS MORNING TO EASE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL FLA TODAY. SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO LAKE OKEE AREA THIS
EVENING...DRAGGING MORE SLOWLY S THROUGH S FLA WED. FRONT STALLS
THEN DISSIPATES/GETS NUDGED OFFSHORE INTO ATLC WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRES CENTERED BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY...MOVES SE INTO N FLA WED NIGHT AND OFFSHORE THU. HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE TO BE DISPLACED SUN INTO MON AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO N/CENTRAL FLA.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION QUITE MEAGER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WILL NOT PLACE MENTION IN ZONES TODAY AND WED. NOT TO SAY THAT WITH
SEA/LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
LATE AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE OKEE AND OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA.
MODELS HINT AT A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT OVER EASTERN S
FLA/JUST OFFSHORE WED WHICH MAY GENERATE MORE MINUTE SHOWERS
AFFECTING MAINLY THE E AND ATLC OFFSHORE. BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREA...AGAIN THE SITUATION BLEAK FOR RAIN BUT SPRINKLES
NOT RULED OUT.
TEMPS WARM A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTERIOR AND E TODAY ON DEVELOPING SW
FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT. MIN TONIGHT NEAR NORMS WITH NEAR NORM MAX/MIN
TEMPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. TEMPS CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMS
REMAINDER OF WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...COOLING SOME EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NEXT FRONT/CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THU WITH
DIRECTIONS SW TODAY BUT BECOMING VARIABLE TUE THROUGH WED WITH
STALLING/DISSIPATING FRONT OVER AREA BUT NO PROBLEMS WITH BOATING.
THU ON WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
0 likes
-
SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
-
CHRISTY
-
CHRISTY
HERE'S THE LATEST!MAYBE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN!
000
FXUS62 KMFL 041337 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
935 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2006
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND LOCAL AND SURROUNDING 12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED CHANCES OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...PRIMARILY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW FACTORS MAY ALL COME TOGETHER TO AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE INCLUDE...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A 500 MB SHORT WAVE FORECAST
TO APPROACH THIS SAME AREA RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED
VORTICITY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOCALIZED
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THERE IS NO PRECIP CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THAT COUPLED WITH THE VERY LIMITED AREA OF
PRECIP DEPICTED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE RESULTED IN A FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LAKE AND SURROUNDING AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING
HOURS.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 041337 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
935 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2006
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND LOCAL AND SURROUNDING 12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED CHANCES OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...PRIMARILY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW FACTORS MAY ALL COME TOGETHER TO AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE INCLUDE...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A 500 MB SHORT WAVE FORECAST
TO APPROACH THIS SAME AREA RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED
VORTICITY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOCALIZED
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THERE IS NO PRECIP CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THAT COUPLED WITH THE VERY LIMITED AREA OF
PRECIP DEPICTED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE RESULTED IN A FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LAKE AND SURROUNDING AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING
HOURS.
0 likes
-
MiamiensisWx
Latest discussion... ridging builds back over the western Atlantic and stiff easterlies return...
000
FXUS62 KMFL 041337 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
935 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2006
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND LOCAL AND SURROUNDING 12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED CHANCES OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...PRIMARILY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW FACTORS MAY ALL COME TOGETHER TO AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE INCLUDE...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A 500 MB SHORT WAVE FORECAST
TO APPROACH THIS SAME AREA RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED
VORTICITY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOCALIZED
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THERE IS NO PRECIP CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THAT COUPLED WITH THE VERY LIMITED AREA OF
PRECIP DEPICTED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE RESULTED IN A FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LAKE AND SURROUNDING AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING
HOURS.
60
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDED SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AND INTO E PALM
BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER N FLA THIS MORNING TO EASE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL FLA TODAY. SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO LAKE OKEE AREA THIS
EVENING...DRAGGING MORE SLOWLY S THROUGH S FLA WED. FRONT STALLS
THEN DISSIPATES/GETS NUDGED OFFSHORE INTO ATLC WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRES CENTERED BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY...MOVES SE INTO N FLA WED NIGHT AND OFFSHORE THU. HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE TO BE DISPLACED SUN INTO MON AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO N/CENTRAL FLA.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION QUITE MEAGER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WILL NOT PLACE MENTION IN ZONES TODAY AND WED. NOT TO SAY THAT WITH
SEA/LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
LATE AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE OKEE AND OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA.
MODELS HINT AT A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT OVER EASTERN S
FLA/JUST OFFSHORE WED WHICH MAY GENERATE MORE MINUTE SHOWERS
AFFECTING MAINLY THE E AND ATLC OFFSHORE. BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREA...AGAIN THE SITUATION BLEAK FOR RAIN BUT SPRINKLES
NOT RULED OUT.
TEMPS WARM A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTERIOR AND E TODAY ON DEVELOPING SW
FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT. MIN TONIGHT NEAR NORMS WITH NEAR NORM MAX/MIN
TEMPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. TEMPS CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMS
REMAINDER OF WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...COOLING SOME EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NEXT FRONT/CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THU WITH
DIRECTIONS SW TODAY BUT BECOMING VARIABLE TUE THROUGH WED WITH
STALLING/DISSIPATING FRONT OVER AREA BUT NO PROBLEMS WITH BOATING.
THU ON WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HAD SOME MID 30S RH VALUES INTERIOR YESTERDAY FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATIONS TODAY BUT NO HIGHLIGHTS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WED WILL NOT MITIGATE LOW RH VALUES AS LOWER
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO S FLA BEHIND FRONT. A DEW POINT
DROP OF 4 TO 5 DEGREES...AS A COUPLE OF MODELS SUGGEST...WOULD PUT
ALL OF S FLA...EXCEPT FOR W COLLIER AND AREAS SE OF LAKE OKEE IN A
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL RH VALUES. WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 63 82 62 / 10 05 05 05
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 67 83 66 / 05 05 05 05
MIAMI 85 66 84 66 / 05 05 05 05
NAPLES 81 63 80 63 / 05 05 05 05
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES EXCEPT W COLLIER COUNTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KMFL 041337 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
935 AM EDT TUE APR 4 2006
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND LOCAL AND SURROUNDING 12Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED CHANCES OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...PRIMARILY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW FACTORS MAY ALL COME TOGETHER TO AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. THESE INCLUDE...THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A 500 MB SHORT WAVE FORECAST
TO APPROACH THIS SAME AREA RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE LOCALIZED
VORTICITY AND 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING LOCALIZED
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
THERE IS NO PRECIP CURRENTLY OCCURRING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THAT COUPLED WITH THE VERY LIMITED AREA OF
PRECIP DEPICTED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE RESULTED IN A FORECAST
FOR ISOLATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LAKE AND SURROUNDING AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING
HOURS.
60
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDED SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AREAS AROUND THE LAKE AND INTO E PALM
BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER N FLA THIS MORNING TO EASE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL FLA TODAY. SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO LAKE OKEE AREA THIS
EVENING...DRAGGING MORE SLOWLY S THROUGH S FLA WED. FRONT STALLS
THEN DISSIPATES/GETS NUDGED OFFSHORE INTO ATLC WED NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRES CENTERED BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY...MOVES SE INTO N FLA WED NIGHT AND OFFSHORE THU. HIGH
BECOMES ANCHORED OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLA PENINSULA THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE TO BE DISPLACED SUN INTO MON AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO N/CENTRAL FLA.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION QUITE MEAGER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
WILL NOT PLACE MENTION IN ZONES TODAY AND WED. NOT TO SAY THAT WITH
SEA/LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE...SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
LATE AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE OKEE AND OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA.
MODELS HINT AT A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT OVER EASTERN S
FLA/JUST OFFSHORE WED WHICH MAY GENERATE MORE MINUTE SHOWERS
AFFECTING MAINLY THE E AND ATLC OFFSHORE. BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING OVER AREA...AGAIN THE SITUATION BLEAK FOR RAIN BUT SPRINKLES
NOT RULED OUT.
TEMPS WARM A BIT ABOVE NORMAL INTERIOR AND E TODAY ON DEVELOPING SW
FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT. MIN TONIGHT NEAR NORMS WITH NEAR NORM MAX/MIN
TEMPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. TEMPS CLIMB A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMS
REMAINDER OF WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...COOLING SOME EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NEXT FRONT/CHANCE OF RAIN.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THU WITH
DIRECTIONS SW TODAY BUT BECOMING VARIABLE TUE THROUGH WED WITH
STALLING/DISSIPATING FRONT OVER AREA BUT NO PROBLEMS WITH BOATING.
THU ON WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...HAD SOME MID 30S RH VALUES INTERIOR YESTERDAY FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO AND EXPECT SIMILAR SITUATIONS TODAY BUT NO HIGHLIGHTS.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WED WILL NOT MITIGATE LOW RH VALUES AS LOWER
DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO S FLA BEHIND FRONT. A DEW POINT
DROP OF 4 TO 5 DEGREES...AS A COUPLE OF MODELS SUGGEST...WOULD PUT
ALL OF S FLA...EXCEPT FOR W COLLIER AND AREAS SE OF LAKE OKEE IN A
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL RH VALUES. WILL ISSUE A WATCH FOR WED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 63 82 62 / 10 05 05 05
FORT LAUDERDALE 83 67 83 66 / 05 05 05 05
MIAMI 85 66 84 66 / 05 05 05 05
NAPLES 81 63 80 63 / 05 05 05 05
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES EXCEPT W COLLIER COUNTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
0 likes
-
CHRISTY
HERE'S THE VERY LASTEST....
000
FXUS62 KMFL 041900
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT TUE APR 4 2006
.DISCUSSION...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PUSHING SOUTHWARD.
THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE TIMING IS A
PROBLEM. THE ETA MODEL PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND APPROCHING THE TIP OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS A BIT SLOWER AND INDICATES THAT ITS
POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT WILL NEARLY STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT VERY STRONG AND DO NOT SEEM
SUFFICIENT TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA...HENCE THE STALLING SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE.
WHILE SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN NO DISCERNABLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEREFORE HAVE INDICATED ISOLATED CHANCES OF
PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND AREAS SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
ARE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LATEST FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF SOUTH FLORDA
LATER ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BOUNDARY WERE TO
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED...CONSIDERABLE DRYING MIGHT
OCCUR AND THE DEW POINTS COULD DROP CONSIDERABLY WITH THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REACHING 35 PERCENT OR BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS
OR MORE. SO FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE RED FLAG WATCH THAT IS UNDER
EFFECT WITH NO CHANGES. HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THE
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS LATER TOMORROW. BUT
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH DRYING IN PORTIONS OF GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES WHERE RELAITVE HUMIDITIES COULD REACH 35 PERCENT
OR BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS OR MORE. IT WILL ALL ULTIMATELY DEPEND
ON HOW FAR THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 041900
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT TUE APR 4 2006
.DISCUSSION...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PUSHING SOUTHWARD.
THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE TIMING IS A
PROBLEM. THE ETA MODEL PUSHES THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND APPROCHING THE TIP OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLE DRYING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS A BIT SLOWER AND INDICATES THAT ITS
POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT WILL NEARLY STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THE
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE NOT VERY STRONG AND DO NOT SEEM
SUFFICIENT TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY QUICKLY THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA...HENCE THE STALLING SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE.
WHILE SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN NO DISCERNABLE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEREFORE HAVE INDICATED ISOLATED CHANCES OF
PRECIP AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND AREAS SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
ARE LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LATEST FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY STALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF SOUTH FLORDA
LATER ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BOUNDARY WERE TO
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED...CONSIDERABLE DRYING MIGHT
OCCUR AND THE DEW POINTS COULD DROP CONSIDERABLY WITH THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REACHING 35 PERCENT OR BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS
OR MORE. SO FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE RED FLAG WATCH THAT IS UNDER
EFFECT WITH NO CHANGES. HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THE
BOUNDARY STALLING OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS LATER TOMORROW. BUT
THERE COULD STILL BE ENOUGH DRYING IN PORTIONS OF GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES WHERE RELAITVE HUMIDITIES COULD REACH 35 PERCENT
OR BELOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS OR MORE. IT WILL ALL ULTIMATELY DEPEND
ON HOW FAR THE FRONT IS PUSHED SOUTH.
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gatorcane
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Woke up this morn to a cloudy day, that lasted only a short time. Right now its very sunny and hot out. Folks, we are in for a very wild ride
It does appear that way now no doubt. We have seen tremendous ridging for this time of year that has lasted for several months now - but things CAN change and we can see more troughiness come late summer - even so, South Florida usually gets hit from the south more than the east, keep that in mind.
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Scorpion
boca_chris wrote:Woke up this morn to a cloudy day, that lasted only a short time. Right now its very sunny and hot out. Folks, we are in for a very wild ride
It does appear that way now no doubt. We have seen tremendous ridging for this time of year that has lasted for several months now - but things CAN change and we can see more troughiness come late summer - even so, South Florida usually gets hit from the south more than the east, keep that in mind.
La Nina supports Wilma-type hurricanes, as well.
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MiamiensisWx
Latest GFS shows a ridge-friendly environment for a very strong Atlantic ridge to form coming up (due to troughiness in the western U.S.)...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006040418&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006040418&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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CHRISTY
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Scorpion
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MiamiensisWx
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gatorcane
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I think the ridge will extend over Florida... I just don't see an open space over Florida as in the image above.
It's only the beginning of April, what you see in that pic should not be happening so early...more like a summer-time setup except there is some good troughiness in the Western US - unlike summer.
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