Hurricane Helene - Cat. 3

[Blown Away]

Interesting historical map with regards to the landfalling storms, the 3 hit very low probability areas: N Florida & W South Carolina. Those areas do not get hit very often from Atlantic storms, mostly hit from Florida crossovers.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Damar91]

Wasn't Georges from near the same area around the same time?

Georges started at 9.7N/25.1W:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

How much effect did Georges have on south fla? I didn't live down here at the time.

[Emmett_Brown]

Time for a little climo. This is a graphic of all storms passing within 65nm of 12N/23W from 1851-2005. Only 1 made it to the U.S. - Dora in 1964. One other little storm grazed the NE Caribbean - Luis in 1995.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/helene5.gif

I think this is very interesting... so much attention and focus is put on "CV season", when in actuallity, very few CV storms actually make it to North or Central America. While they are awesome to watch, the much more real threat is from storms that develop much further west.

I guess we saw the best example of this last year.

[jimvb]

It seems to me that a conveyor belt of tropical systems has formed in the Atlantic. A storm forms in the eastern Atlantic and then moves to the west, turning north in the mid-Atlantic up a valley created by two big high pressure systems, one on each side of it. TD8 is the latest storm to come up this belt. They all turn northward in the Atlantic because of the two big high domes. The GFS runs seem to show this quite well.

[sma10]

Wasn't Georges from near the same area around the same time?

Georges was below 10N I believe. Something like 9.8N

[gatorcane]

It seems to me that a conveyor belt of tropical systems has formed in the Atlantic. A storm forms in the eastern Atlantic and then moves to the west, turning north in the mid-Atlantic up a valley created by two big high pressure systems, one on each side of it. TD8 is the latest storm to come up this belt. They all turn northward in the Atlantic because of the two big high domes. The GFS runs seem to show this quite well.

Yep they can form all they want to as they will just march right out to sea.

The highest threat to the US would be a system that could somehow make it into the Caribbean, by track at a lattitude south enough to miss all the weakness to the north (e.g and Ivan-like system).

[sma10]

Wasn't Georges from near the same area around the same time?

Georges started at 9.7N/25.1W:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

How much effect did Georges have on south fla? I didn't live down here at the time.

Very, very little. It was fairly significant for Key West, but not so much for Dade/Broward County. Of course, the hype was immense. Two days off from work if I remember correctly.

[Emmett_Brown]

Can i have a link to the latest GFS run? I can't locate mine amoung my mad scientist gear.

Also, since central Atlantic ridge has broken down, is there any indication that it will bridge in the next week, or is it getting too late in the season for the ridge to build across the basin?

[cajungal]

Georges was a near miss for us here. It was supposed to be a direct hit here. My dad boarded up our house which takes hours since we have lots of windows. Georges turned at the very last minute and hit Mississippi. We had blue skies, and sunshine and had zero effects from Georges.

[perk]

It seems to me that a conveyor belt of tropical systems has formed in the Atlantic. A storm forms in the eastern Atlantic and then moves to the west, turning north in the mid-Atlantic up a valley created by two big high pressure systems, one on each side of it. TD8 is the latest storm to come up this belt. They all turn northward in the Atlantic because of the two big high domes. The GFS runs seem to show this quite well.

Yep they can form all they want to as they will just march right out to sea.

The highest threat to the US would be a system that could somehow make it into the Caribbean, by track at a lattitude south enough to miss all the weakness to the north (e.g and Ivan-like system).

Yeah and after tracking two recurvers back to back i don't have a lot of interest in tracking td8.

[sma10]

I think this is very interesting... so much attention and focus is put on "CV season", when in actuallity, very few CV storms actually make it to North or Central America. While they are awesome to watch, the much more real threat is from storms that develop much further west.

I guess we saw the best example of this last year.

Yes, and this phenomenon is mentioned quite often by the experts. Many of the worst hurricane hits come from systems that develop close to the US and/or strengthen close to the U.S. Consider:

1) Katrina -- basically formed in the Bahamas
2) Andrew -- by definition a CV system, but was a battered and bruised nothing of a storm until 65W
3) Labor Day -- was only a weak TS in the Bahamas!
4) Camille -- formed underneath Cuba

True there are exceptions such as Hugo and Donna, but for every Hugo that comes along, you have dozens and dozens of monsters that harmlessly curve away.

[Brent]

WOW... this thing looks like a monster already. Easily see this becoming our first major.

[Damar91]

WOW... this thing looks like a monster already. Easily see this becoming our first major.

Brent, what's your opinion on it's future track?

[Brent]

WOW... this thing looks like a monster already. Easily see this becoming our first major.

Brent, what's your opinion on it's future track?

I dunno yet, I've been gone since 6:30am this morning, so I'm a bit out of it.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1745 UTC 12.1N 23.1W T1.5/1.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

[BreinLa]

Don't have time to read back 14 pages, please tell me when this thing became a TD?

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1745 UTC 12.1N 23.1W T1.5/1.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

Those T numbers are below the normal 2.0/2.0 TD status.

[cycloneye]

Don't have time to read back 14 pages, please tell me when this thing became a TD?

Bre,at 11 AM.

[BreinLa]

Thanks guys, so much info on the TT forum I couldn't understand myself lol

[HenkL]

Ship with callsign OVZV2, just SW of Cape Verde, reported 36 kt winds at 18Z. Wind from the North, pressure 1008.7 hPa. Ships position: 14.0N 25.5W.

OVZV2 12183 99140 70255 41497 83636 10291 20256 40087 56018 75022
887// 22215 00294 20403 334// 40403 80266=