Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[tailgater]

Latest Quick scat


http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... Bds100.png

[AnnularCane]

Paul Goodloe must be blind. This is his descripton of the Atlantic: "Not seeing waves, not seeing lows..."

[Sanibel]

Though nothing is forming, there is a solid ITCZ cloud area straight across the Atlantic. Somewhat thin and sparse, but noticeably clouded over, unlike last year.

[cycloneye]

Paul Goodloe must be blind. This is his descripton of the Atlantic: "Not seeing waves, not seeing lows..."

This is off-topic but I only see the Tropical Updates at TWC when Steve Lyons and Jim Cantore do them.I change channels when another person comes.

[Hyperstorm]

Looking closely at latest satellite imagery for the system in 10N 46W, it appears that its small circulation is completely embedded within the overall westerly flow near 10N and that reaches to the tropical wave near 30W. If that's the case, we could see a huge merger of systems near that area. It reminds me of the pre-developmental stages of Felix in 2001, which consisted of two lows that merged and were as apart as these tropical waves are. It was all because of the moisture-laden westerly flow that did not allow convergence to concentrate on a particular location. Of course, we want to see that (concentrated convection) in order to have development.

Tomorrow will be a very interesting (transitional?) day in the Atlantic...

[Aric Dunn]

we should probably see two invest tomorrow.
with these systems.. more convection is re firing near both centers.. we may see both getting pretty close to TD ! tomorrow night and Saturday

[Anthonyl]

http://www.accuweather.com/hurricane/sa ... n=atlantic

This wave is showing that clasical v shape appearance and convetion continues to increase.

[canegrl04]

Paul Goodloe must be blind. This is his descripton of the Atlantic: "Not seeing waves, not seeing lows..."

This is off-topic but I only see the Tropical Updates at TWC when Steve Lyons and Jim Cantore do them.I change channels when another person comes.

I am a female,but I must say,the women on TWC do a **** poor job when it comes to tropical discussion

[Cyclone1]

Wow, the wave at 45, (which has a sfc low) is looking fairly decent. I could see this one being an invest soon.

And to agree with cycloneye, Cantore and Lyons are the best people to do Tropical Updates's on TWC. But Nicole Mitchell and Warren Madden (rarely appears) also do a fairly good job when they anchor them. I guess it's because they're's the only two mets on TWC who have flown into hurricanes. However, John Hope was the best, we all miss him. I'm a teenager, I watch TWC waaaay too much.

To prove it... Fact about John Hope. He added a name on the list of hurricanes in honor of his daughter graduating from high school in 1969. Camille Hope was her name.

[TheRingo]

it's running into that dry air now and losing some convection.



loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

['CaneFreak]

Leading wave is taking the dry air out for the one behind it....its still flaring up...lets face it...its a diurnal minimum and the EASTERN most wave is still flaring up....c'mon folks....SAL IS LOSING ITS GRIPS AND DRY AIR IS ABATING....its that time of year....get with the freaking program...

[Aric Dunn]

this is cool ..
look at the two lows take shape ..
Im so glad cimss put this up its great
total precipitable water (TPW) its much much better than water vapor ..

we clearly have two low developing.. would not be surprised to see both of them develop

[Aquawind]

No mention this morning..

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270912
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THIS AREA AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Aquawind]

San Juan Discussion mentions SAL and another wave approaching..

SAL ANALYSIS SHOWED SAHARAN DUST REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZY SKIES TODAY AND PROBABLY SATURDAY.

THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE LOCAL MOISTURE AND
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[vacanechaser]

San Juan Discussion mentions SAL and another wave approaching..

SAL ANALYSIS SHOWED SAHARAN DUST REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HAZY SKIES TODAY AND PROBABLY SATURDAY.

THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE ADVERTISES ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY ON MONDAY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE LOCAL MOISTURE AND
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIPITATION.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

yep... but look at the sal... it is starting to die out there.... really low from about a week ago...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aquawind]

Yes I been reading.. Looks to me like we will be tracking a system next week..

[DanKellFla]

The system is just hanging out at 10N getting ready to form. Just like it is supposed to.

[Meso]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 27W-34W WITH
AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL ROTATION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS SLIGHTLY TILTED ALONG 45W/46W WITH WEAK 1012 MB
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N MOVING W 10 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM 40W-52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N
BETWEEN 44W-49W.

[Hyperstorm]

The tropical low near 10N 46W is nearly stationary. The system has changed very little since yesterday. There's two main reasons for that. There is moderate easterly shear, which is preventing the convection to completely wrap around the surface low and there is also the lack of strong convergence. It appears that the majority of the convergence and moisture flow is funneling eastward south of it toward the disturbance between 35-40W.

I really don't think the tropical wave near 30W is going to do much at all as it is too far north and into the brunt of the cooler waters and drier air. Also, the other half of the low-level moisture flow is not even going towards it, instead it's traveling toward the vigorous disturbance about to exit Africa.

So, we have two distinct possibilities with the disturbance near 45W. The surface low can spin up more quickly if it can begin separating from the ITCZ or it could stay where it is and merge with the area of moisture to its east between 35-40W. The important thing to keep in mind is that there are vigorous amounts of moisture around these systems, especially to the south. If we can get the easterly shear to calm down or the disturbances to travel in tandem with the shear (in other words...start moving westward), it will be very interesting.

[punkyg]

Wii! this is so exciting. you know what i should look at this on my wii.