Invest 99L East of Windwards #3

[DESTRUCTION5]

Help me..MDR =?

[Weatherfreak000]

I have very much realized that the science behind this system is pretty against it.


But then again, the pro mets that stated very specifically that Chantal wouldn't develop have yet to comment upon Chantal in her appropriate topic. Based on that, it's easy to assume as bias as some members are FOR development, your bias definitely remains AGAINST it. Simple as that, no arguments there right? lol.

Back to 99L, it's definitely looking pathetic and i'm about ready to write this thing off it appears like it's about to fall apart.

[Aquawind]

Main Development Region

[Windtalker2]

that comment was beyond cheap windtalker2.

I am sorry if that sounded "cheap"....what i'm trying to say that there are alot of certified weathermen here that go against the NHC all the time. What do they know that the NHC doesn't?

[fox13weather]

By my count, 90% of the posters here are ditching science and are doing their best to make a storm out of nothing more than a poorly organized tropical wave. While it is true that this may eventually develop, eliminating the wishing and the praying, and concentrating on sound meteorology, would make for a much more quality posting experience

No offence....but when weathermen can predict basic weather correct more than 75% of the time....maybe I might start listening. Until then, we have to draw our own conclusions.

No offense, but 2 day forecast accuracies are hovering around 90%. We are always looking for the ONE meteorologist in the world who never misses a forecast. So, instead of complaining, be the one. Enroll at FSU, take your thermodynamic classes and give it a shot! When you finish send me your tape and resume..

[RL3AO]

One thing is the NHC is saying development is possible in the next few days and the people on here are thinking more short term. Or maybe I'm way off.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system is doing what 96L did. The area of moist air has fallen apart, and the dry air has tooken over mostly. At the mid levels it has to be caping convection from forming near the weak LLC. I don't see any development for at least 24-36 hours. Once into the eastern caribbean, we got some what stronger shear from the tutt. If this doe's make it the hurricane models could be on to something.

[Aquawind]

By my count, 90% of the posters here are ditching science and are doing their best to make a storm out of nothing more than a poorly organized tropical wave. While it is true that this may eventually develop, eliminating the wishing and the praying, and concentrating on sound meteorology, would make for a much more quality posting experience

No offence....but when weathermen can predict basic weather correct more than 75% of the time....maybe I might start listening. Until then, we have to draw our own conclusions.

Ummm..

That was very rude.. conclusions from ignorance....more like natural selection get in front of the line..

Until you have been a paid Met shut your pie hole.. We don't need your attitude misdirecting people..

[msbee]

By my count, 90% of the posters here are ditching science and are doing their best to make a storm out of nothing more than a poorly organized tropical wave. While it is true that this may eventually develop, eliminating the wishing and the praying, and concentrating on sound meteorology, would make for a much more quality posting experience

OMG, you are so right. and every year it makes me crazy, especially since I live in the islands, and all the hoping and praying that this will develop, would mean if the prayers come true, it could cause some serious problems for some Caribbean islands.
does anyone ever stop to think of that?

[skysummit]

Comparison from 5 1/2 hours....1315 - 1845 UTC:

[Aquawind]

Void of deep convection.. Still alot of moisture being drawn northward on what looks to be the backside at this point..not looking to good. Deep convection needed..lol

[SouthFloridawx]

Upper Level Environment still seems favorable for development.

[windstorm99]

I see a very stable enviroment in the caribbean and also the MJO is in its negative phase which also does not help.

Downward motion is everywere.

[Patrick99]

Ouch....might be time to forget 99L, and start looking at what's behind it.

[marcane_1973]

The dry air has killed this invest. Hardly any moisture left with this one. I was hoping we would get at least another tropical storm out of this one to finish off the month of July. I think within 2 or 3 weeks we could get our first cane of the season. The waves rolling off Africa look mighty intense so far this year. If the dry air out in the Atlantic would clear out I think we could be looking at a very active Cape Verde season especially rolling into September. Is there any model available that can indicate when the dry air will start to subside out in the Atlantic?

[Derek Ortt]

how much does the MJO really affect the Atlantic? We had next to no convection when we had the "positive phase" in the Atlantic

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, this is not looking so good this afternoon. We will probably end up having to wait a little while longer before Dean comes along...though I would not be surprised if this does try to come back. Time will tell.

In the longer term, JB is predicting a storm development rate of potentially 1.5 storms/week starting around August 15th (when we begin to re-enter the wet phase in the Atlantic)..so that could get interesting.

[tolakram]

In the latest satellite loops it appears that the center of a low (if any) has made a shift NW and is now starting to spin up some convection around this new swirl. Haven't we seen instances where a wave seemingly degenerates, the center relocates, and the convection fires again?

Just a question.


Also, what is the time of this pass? 1pm? -- edit: looks like 3PM if I read and converted correctly.

[crownweather]

Tyler: Thank you for the kind comments about my discussions, they are appreciated very much!! BTW, I have just posted an afternoon update that can viewed at http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

[RL3AO]

There have been so many strong waves coming off of Africa but it was just too soon. I don't even remember this many strong waves in 2005.