Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[skysummit]

So who has gotten wiped out so far???

Houston, New York, Miami, New Orleans, Mobile, Panama City, Brownsville, and pretty close to Savannah.

Boy....it's covering all bases!

[hsvwx]

Hey DrewFl,

I'm not even speculating on potential landfall sites. I'm just trying to add a little more science to the board which hadn't been brought up yet. I'm a PhD student in Atmospheric Science, and I like putting the science into things more than just saying that something is going to happen, and have absolutely no back up for it whatsoever. I believe Storm2k is trying to eliminate this as well, and trying to keep posts informative. Therefore, I also apologize to all viewers of this post.

[MWatkins]

FWIW BAM guidance is still pretty clustered...although the shallow layer is still faster than the medium and deep layer guidance.

I just took a look at the latest 0Z GFS guidance which takes this south of the Greater Antillies and into the GOM...futher south than the 12Z and 18Z runs...not a good trend if one wants this to get out to sea....

Easterly shear still seems to be the greatest inhibitor to immediate development...although I still think we will see enough organization to call this a TD later today (late Sunday). From there we will see gradual development and we should see a hurricane approaching the islands by late in the week.

There is nothing in the pattern...at all...to suggest this system will turn before it gets to the islands.

MW

[DrewFL]

FWIW BAM guidance is still pretty clustered...although the shallow layer is still faster than the medium and deep layer guidance.

I just took a look at the latest 0Z GFS guidance which takes this south of the Greater Antillies and into the GOM...futher south than the 12Z and 18Z runs...not a good trend if one wants this to get out to sea....

Easterly shear still seems to be the greatest inhibitor to immediate development...although I still think we will see enough organization to call this a TD later today (late Sunday). From there we will see gradual development and we should see a hurricane approaching the islands by late in the week.

There is nothing in the pattern...at all...to suggest this system will turn before it gets to the islands.

MW

You might need a disclaimer.

[Aric Dunn]

FWIW BAM guidance is still pretty clustered...although the shallow layer is still faster than the medium and deep layer guidance.

I just took a look at the latest 0Z GFS guidance which takes this south of the Greater Antillies and into the GOM...futher south than the 12Z and 18Z runs...not a good trend if one wants this to get out to sea....

Easterly shear still seems to be the greatest inhibitor to immediate development...although I still think we will see enough organization to call this a TD later today (late Sunday). From there we will see gradual development and we should see a hurricane approaching the islands by late in the week.

There is nothing in the pattern...at all...to suggest this system will turn before it gets to the islands.

MW

I will take watkins word over just about anyone! I agree and the easterly shear although is inhibiting it now latest analysis show a slightly better environment for the system late tomorrow afternoon

[rjgator]

I typically like it when the models say it is coming towards me this far out. With the typically error margin it normally means I am safe.

[DrewFL]

All that GFS guidance will change....pretty drastically overnight. The UKMET seems to have the best grasp on whatever there is to grasp.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

[meteorologyman]

Lady's and gentlemen may I state if you have not prepared for this Hurricane Season or for this particular storm, now is the very good time. There is a week to 2 weeks for preparation depending where you are located, to prepare.

Waiting for a system to become powerful or waiting 2 to 3days before landfall is going to cause a lot of headaches, concerns, and stress. Waiting for that moment will mean lack of supplies and long lines. Instead of getting everything at once you can do it at intervals and you don't feel rush since you have a week or 2, instead of 24 to 72 hours.

Now is a good time to check your batteries, make sure you have non perishable foods, and start saving money.

Know your location well, (Open Mind) it is a good time to think about if your the ones evacuating how far do you think you will have to go, think about hotels, how fast will they fill up? How soon should you leave to avoid parking lot traffic and no vacancy hotels?

[fci]

FWIW BAM guidance is still pretty clustered...although the shallow layer is still faster than the medium and deep layer guidance.

I just took a look at the latest 0Z GFS guidance which takes this south of the Greater Antillies and into the GOM...futher south than the 12Z and 18Z runs...not a good trend if one wants this to get out to sea....

Easterly shear still seems to be the greatest inhibitor to immediate development...although I still think we will see enough organization to call this a TD later today (late Sunday). From there we will see gradual development and we should see a hurricane approaching the islands by late in the week.

There is nothing in the pattern...at all...to suggest this system will turn before it gets to the islands.

MW

You might need a disclaimer.

Mike is a Pro and needs no disclaimer.
He posts when needed and when he does.............we listen!

[Extremeweatherguy]

All that GFS guidance will change....pretty drastically overnight. The UKMET seems to have the best grasp on whatever there is to grasp.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

why does the UKMET have the best grasp? I really don't see any reason why the UKMET would be better than the GFS in the short term with this system.

[cycloneye]

This is the eumetsat most recent image.Too far but you can see deep convection persisting.

[MWatkins]

FWIW BAM guidance is still pretty clustered...although the shallow layer is still faster than the medium and deep layer guidance.

I just took a look at the latest 0Z GFS guidance which takes this south of the Greater Antillies and into the GOM...futher south than the 12Z and 18Z runs...not a good trend if one wants this to get out to sea....

Easterly shear still seems to be the greatest inhibitor to immediate development...although I still think we will see enough organization to call this a TD later today (late Sunday). From there we will see gradual development and we should see a hurricane approaching the islands by late in the week.

There is nothing in the pattern...at all...to suggest this system will turn before it gets to the islands.

MW

You might need a disclaimer.

Sure thing, Drew...

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

When I make a forecast I will let you know. Just my opinion...please feel free to disect my analysis as you want...

MW

[DrewFL]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Listen to amateurs if you choose. I see no Pro Met signature there.....and do not ever confuse my limited amount of posts to my ability to track storms.

[Normandy]

All that GFS guidance will change....pretty drastically overnight. The UKMET seems to have the best grasp on whatever there is to grasp.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

why does the UKMET have the best grasp? I really don't see any reason why the UKMET would be better than the GFS in the short term with this system.

Isn't it obvious?
Look at the last two letters in his name.

[Extremeweatherguy]

All that GFS guidance will change....pretty drastically overnight. The UKMET seems to have the best grasp on whatever there is to grasp.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif

why does the UKMET have the best grasp? I really don't see any reason why the UKMET would be better than the GFS in the short term with this system.

Isn't it obvious?
Look at the last two letters in his name.

Yeah, I just realized that. lol. I just wanted to see what kind of response he would give and if he actually did have anything to really back that statment up.

[Regit]

Please get back on topic.

[Normandy]

He can't respond....there is no data suggesting that this goes N of the islands. His prediction is purely hope based.

Regarding the wave, Ill be interested to see when the NHC declares this, because they have sufficient evidence to name it a TD right now if they wanted to.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Listen to amateurs if you choose. I see no Pro Met signature there.....and do not ever confuse my limited amount of posts to my ability to track storms.

Why are you being so contrary? This is a board for discussion about various topics of interest in the tropics. OK, it is not officially a TC yet, and there is no offical NHC path. But what do you have against people who tend to believe the overwhelming concensus of the models is correct, and the Caribbean is possibly 5 days from a TC threat, and the SE US into the Gulf 4 to 6 days beyond it.

If you're not impressed, and find the topic dull, you can always go somewhere else.

[DrewFL]

Everything goes into the Gulf guys! You should know that by now. And all of them will hit Texas this season!
Does that make you feel better? Forget all the Island friends and God forbid....Florida! It's all about the Gulf.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hmm...this will have to be watched closely by
the caribbean islands.