Hurricane Dean Recon Discussion

[gotoman38]

What does this mean?
REMNANTS OF INNER EYWALL E040/10/8

[WindRunner]

I'd say it's the radii of an oval-shaped partially-open eyewall within our brand-new eyewall, but the 40 would imply that the inner and outer eyewalls cross . . . and I don't think that's right . . .

Possibly just that there are weaker, partial eyewalls with radii of 8, 10, and 40nmi in addition to the main one at a 25nmi radius . . .

[superfly]

My guess is that it's elongated with the longest axis along 40 degrees, longest axis 10 nm and shortest axis 8 nm.

[WindRunner]

My guess is that it's elongated with the longest axis along 40 degrees, longest axis 10 nm and shortest axis 8 nm.

Aaah, I think you've got it there . . . it does say 040, not O40, so that sounds right to me . . .

[senorpepr]

My guess is that it's elongated with the longest axis along 40 degrees, longest axis 10 nm and shortest axis 8 nm.

That would be correct.

[miamicanes177]

M. CO

What does this stand for in the VDM?

Concentric eyewalls... essentially two (or more) eyewalls surrounding the eye.

Thanks...last question: what about M. C25?

[mf_dolphin]

Eye type = circular 25 miles wide

[miamicanes177]

mf_dolphin does this mean there are no concentric eyewalls now? thanks

[senorpepr]

mf_dolphin does this mean there are no concentric eyewalls now? thanks

What it means is that the main, outer eyewall is the circular, 25nm ring. The inner eyewall is now falling apart and is elliptical. It's long axis is from 040° through 220°. The long axis is 10nm while the short axis is 8nm.

[Solaris]

AF304 to reach 'DEAN' shortly

[Thunder44]

It looks we still have at least a double wind maxima.

[Solaris]

141 kt nw-q...so NE? just shy of cat-5?

[tolakram]

Using the .85 that Derek thinks is about right for this storm that would be 137mph at the surface.

[Thunder44]

141kts max on the NW Quad, supports about 127kts on the surface. There may be higher winds in NE Quad.

The plane just made a eye pass as well. VDM shortly.

[tolakram]

What a horrible time for Dean to regain strength.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The reduction factor was 89.7% about two minutes before the highest peak 10 second flight level wind was recorded, so I think you could use the normal 90% for this storm now.

I added a function to my recon decoder last night that calculates the approximate reduction factor.

It is done as follows:

"SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind" is divided by the "Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind" and multiplied by 100

The SFMR surface wind data was suspect at the time the highest observation took place.

And it took place at the 700 mb pressure level.

[Aquawind]

Still 923mb and CLOSED..

[tolakram]

145mph winds with a .9 reduction,

138mph with a .85 reduction

Cat 4 either way, but he looks to be getting more organized. The bastard.

[jrod]

Still 125kts on the vortex message, I have to assume they'll up that before they're done with this flight.

[x-y-no]

141000 1706N 07437W 6954 02849 9681 +086 +086 137119 132 117 007 01
141030 1707N 07436W 6979 02853 9990 +066 +999 139141 145 111 028 01
141100 1708N 07435W 6975 02882 9990 +059 +999 132131 134 103 029 01