Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[Sanibel]

Could be a swirl near 27N-73.5W

I wish they would put the Floater over business like this just so we could see what is trying to develop. What is the thing for?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Could be a swirl near 27N-73.5W

I wish they would put the Floater over business like this just so we could see what is trying to develop. What is the thing for?

Yes sanibel that's exactly where I think a new low is forming and with that
big convection could intensify.

[KatDaddy]

Latest from Jeff Master's blog:

Bahamas tropical disturbance
A potential significant threat area has developed today off the U.S. East Coast along an old frontal boundary. Several areas of heavy thunderstorm activity have started firing up along this old front. Wind shear is about 20 knots over the region today, so only slow development will occur. By Tuesday, the shear is forecast to drop below 15 knots, and most of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical depression will form near Florida or Cuba. This storm is forecast to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. The UKMET model is forecasting a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane by Friday for the Texas/Mexico border region. The other models are not so aggressive, but all see the possibility of a tropical storm impacting the western Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana, Texas, or Mexico sometime Thursday through Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Texas is at highest risk from this potential storm.

[Ed Mahmoud]

"Ed Mahmoud"

wxman57- GFS would appear to show dramatic reversal in shear (6Z run) near possible Gulf system of Louisiana about Friday. Although the gradient is rather sharp with the shear, and the low would have to be positioned right...

Too soon to tell, perhaps, in my petroleum engineering opinion (ie, amateur weather opinion)

Shear loop

Ed, the shear map you posted is for next Friday - after whatever develops is nearly inland. Of course the shear maps show low shear dead center in the middle of a large upper low. But the surface low would form east of the upper low in the higher shear environment where there's enhanced lifting.

One other thing, I've noticed you're always quite "pro-development", to put it mildly. The title of one of your threads about the storms (remnants of Lorenzo) moving inland along the TX coast yesterday/today is quite revealing: "If only there was a surface feature East of Tamaulipas". Careful about letting your desires to experience a TC influence your opinion of what might happen.

Hmmm, amateurs tell me I'm too hung up on climatology when I say nothing in last seven decades has hit Texas in October coming from direction of Florida in October so nothing coming here, and the Pro Met implies I wishcast.


If I wish for anything, it is another snow event for SE Texas in 2 months.


Off to church...

I am one of those amateurs Ed....... Actually, I have always thought of you as anti- development.....[/quote]


I tend to disagree with

One other thing, I've noticed you're always quite "pro-development", to put it mildly. The title of one of your threads about the storms (remnants of Lorenzo) moving inland along the TX coast yesterday/today is quite revealing: "If only there was a surface feature East of Tamaulipas".

I don't have a leg to stand on to argue weather with a degreed met, but I'd like to see any other example of me always being strongly pro-development. I do enjoy the action when it is offshore, but we missed ruined carpets from a TC in my house by about an inch (in 2001), and I spent that weekend ripping up carpets and padding at several of my wife's relatives, so I'm rather of mixed feelings, liking to watch the satellite and models, but not wanting to think about insurance deductibles and ruined carpet and sheet rock, and in the case of a hurricane, several days w/o electricity. The less than one day w/o electricity after Rita wasn't with kids in the house wasn't fun at all.

BTW, 6Z GFS I was referring to implied a landfall of a fairly weak system in Central Louisiana, not close to HOU.


Edit to add "2001" to the close carpet call and relatives w/ ruined floors and sheetrock.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Jeff masters says shear dropping below 15 knots by tuesday.
This thing could really be a big threat to texas because
Jeff Masters said an anticylone will build over it and the
ridge will push it towards Texas.

If I were in texas I would be watching VERY VERY closely.

Watch that convection really fire up:

[Ptarmigan]

That disturbance is in the same area where Katrina formed. And no, I am not expecting another Hurricane Katrina.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

NHC already said that slow development is possible so why
is this not an invest?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Could be a swirl near 27N-73.5W

I wish they would put the Floater over business like this just so we could see what is trying to develop. What is the thing for?

Yes sanibel that's exactly where I think a new low is forming and with that
big convection could intensify.

We don't need no steenkin floaters.


Not when the NASA satellite page allows you to lovingly handcraft your own closeup visible satellite loop.


To make it an IR, don't even need to go back to NASA page, just change vis to 'ir" and ir.pal to spect.pal and have a false color satellite loop.

Isn't the internet and NASA a wonderful thing?

[Ed Mahmoud]

NHC already said that slow development is possible so why
is this not an invest?

I think the NRL people take the weekend off, so I'd look to see if models are run with a new invest number.

Not seeing it yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if that is the first concrete evidence it is an invest.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Satillite view:

[CourierPR]

Many posters seem to dismiss the possibility of a TC impacting Florida. If a system develops in the SE Bahamas and moves slowly, we could have a surprise on our hands.

[Ptarmigan]

NHC already said that slow development is possible so why
is this not an invest?

I wonder about that too. Probably get an Invest later today. If it forms, the name would be Noel or Olga.

[punkyg]

Many posters seem to dismiss the possibility of a TC impacting Florida. If a system develops in the SE Bahamas and moves slowly, we could have a surprise on our hands.

Well i think that they think it will go to the carolinas or out to sea those are the 2 things they will always say.

[SETXweatherwatcher]

Jeff masters says shear dropping below 15 knots by tuesday.
This thing could really be a big threat to texas because
Jeff Masters said an anticylone will build over it and the
ridge will push it towards Texas.

If I were in texas I would be watching VERY VERY closely.

Watch that convection really fire up:

I am, I promise you, I am.

I have been telling people on a local board that there is no magic cut off date for the GOM to "close for business" and while this is not the norm for us, it can happen.

Could someone explain the "anticyclone" info, this is not something I am familiar with. The set up for next week, is this possibility or probabiliby?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Many posters seem to dismiss the possibility of a TC impacting Florida. If a system develops in the SE Bahamas and moves slowly, we could have a surprise on our hands.

Agree...it is still hundreds of miles east of florida and therefore
has time to develop- I'm guessing 3 days away
from florida which means when shear goes below 15 knots on Tuesday
it could ramp up starting Tuesday...and if it moves slowly and stays out
there 3-4 days it arrives here wednesday-thursday, giving
it 3-4 days to develop...

[BigA]

There is definitely a tiny swirl at about 27N 73W. It shows up very well on the last image of the close up NASA loop. It looks to me like this is a transient feature, but once (if) shear declines, the whole mass of stuff has the potential for organization.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC



Well,for those who are close followers of the Canadian model,here is the 12z run.Similar track of TD 10.Off Topic=By the way,it revives Karen.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Jeff masters says shear dropping below 15 knots by tuesday.
This thing could really be a big threat to texas because
Jeff Masters said an anticylone will build over it and the
ridge will push it towards Texas.

If I were in texas I would be watching VERY VERY closely.

Watch that convection really fire up:

I am, I promise you, I am.

I have been telling people on a local board that there is no magic cut off date for the GOM to "close for business" and while this is not the norm for us, it can happen.

Could someone explain the "anticyclone" info, this is not something I am familiar with. The set up for next week, is this possibility or probabiliby?

Anticyclone means that the upper winds will be favorable for development
because Upper level lows can rip up systems so an anticyclone makes it favorable
for a storm to form.

Many posters seem to dismiss the possibility of a TC impacting Florida. If a system develops in the SE Bahamas and moves slowly, we could have a surprise on our hands.

Well i think that they think it will go to the carolinas or out to sea those are the 2 things they will always say.

With a building ridge I think gulf of mexico

[DESTRUCTION5]

Could be a swirl near 27N-73.5W

I wish they would put the Floater over business like this just so we could see what is trying to develop. What is the thing for?

This works well Sanibel..


http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/r ... Carribbean

[jlauderdal]

Many posters seem to dismiss the possibility of a TC impacting Florida. If a system develops in the SE Bahamas and moves slowly, we could have a surprise on our hands.

the south florida media will ensure there are no surprises, they lead off the news when there are heavy thunderstorms