ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[artist]

NAVGEM full loop 0Z- sends whats left of Chantal into the GOM and regenerates it just it time to smash into Galveston at warp 4.....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Okay, why is this funny? Not to get into a this model is better than the other one tit for tat, but hasn't this come up as a scenario a few times now? If so, why doesn't anybody lend any credence to that theory? Everyone thinks it's funny......

the NAVGEM is notorious for not being correct in the long term. And wxman57, a pro met, just stated if anything got going it would probably end up in the BOC toward Mexico, due to the synoptics.

[wxman57]

is weak center sw part of storms area that i think i see on Visible Imagery Loop?

Good question. I think the center is so weak that any sustained convection has a chance to form a center. Recon showed a wind shift under both the top and bottom blob.

you think hurricane hunter may find other center??

I don't thing there's another center to find, and not much of one found on the previous flight.

[Weatherboy1]

Is it just me or is the ULL in the vicinity of FL filing in/weakening? Wouldn't that lessen shear in the vicinity of Chantal and/or her projected path?

[AdamFirst]

Is it just me or is the ULL in the vicinity of FL filing in/weakening? Wouldn't that lessen shear in the vicinity of Chantal and/or her projected path?

Seems to still be chugging along on recent water vapor imagery. The token convection that's hanging around with it is waning though.

[floridasun78]

she did by 5pm

[chaser1]

The way I see it, Chantal was on her death bed overnight. But now she is recharging quite a bit, with some of the heaviest convection since she was entering the eastern Caribbean. Not only that, she looks set to miss the lion's share of the island of Hispanola, if not ALL of it. And she is transitioning from the Eastern Caribbean (a dead zone for storms historically) to the Western Caribbean (a much more healthy location, climatologically speaking). Sure, shear is going to be an issue and there may be some landmasses to deal with. But I'm surprised NHC is as bearish on development/maintenance of strength as they were at 11. We shall see.

Boy, I couldn't agree more. Look, this storm is sick and that's an understatement however one has to also look at the stamina its circulation under the conditions thus far . While there would be little reason to "not" easily forecast weakening....I am not sure why NHC would not cover all bases in the unlikely event that Chantal maintain just enough of its physical integrity and just happen to go through a "bursting phase" while moving north through the Florida Straits.

As far as warnings or watches are concerned, much less lead time is required (and preparation) for a tropical storm, than for a hurricane. My only surprise is that thus far, NHC has chosen to not even acknowledge the most minimal of risk/possibility of tropical storm force conditions for the South Florida area, yet "technically" is presently tracking a T.S. which for the moment is only 48 hours from possible impact to S. Florida. I don't think that there will be redevelopment either, especially without model support. Then again, I would not have assumed Chantal would have ever developed, given that little or no model support suggested it....... and yet, look at what actually developed??!.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 101629
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 35 20130710
155830 1607N 07202W 9249 00809 0148 +204 +191 152015 016 015 000 00
155900 1606N 07204W 9249 00812 0149 +201 +194 145014 015 015 000 00
155930 1605N 07205W 9249 00812 //// +200 //// 145013 014 015 000 01
160000 1605N 07207W 9250 00811 0149 +204 +202 148013 013 013 000 00
160030 1604N 07208W 9248 00814 //// +201 //// 136010 014 013 001 01
160100 1603N 07210W 9249 00812 //// +199 //// 124009 010 018 001 01
160130 1602N 07211W 9249 00812 //// +199 //// 110008 010 018 001 05
160200 1601N 07212W 9246 00815 //// +200 //// 119007 007 014 000 01
160230 1600N 07213W 9249 00812 0150 +203 +202 131010 010 011 000 05
160300 1558N 07213W 9248 00813 //// +202 //// 124010 011 011 000 01
160330 1557N 07214W 9246 00816 0150 +202 //// 116011 011 010 000 05
160400 1556N 07216W 9244 00815 0149 +205 +201 096012 013 013 000 00
160430 1555N 07217W 9252 00809 0148 +209 +197 084013 013 015 000 00
160500 1554N 07219W 9251 00810 0148 +206 +202 069011 012 017 000 03
160530 1555N 07220W 9244 00817 //// +205 //// 078012 012 023 002 01
160600 1556N 07222W 9242 00819 0156 +201 //// 078011 013 025 009 01
160630 1557N 07223W 9261 00798 0147 +203 //// 061012 014 027 005 01
160700 1558N 07224W 9246 00814 0151 +204 +204 063014 017 029 009 00
160730 1559N 07225W 9251 00806 //// +200 //// 053012 013 024 003 01
160800 1601N 07226W 9247 00808 //// +202 //// 046012 015 023 001 01
$$
URNT15 KNHC 101637
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 36 20130710
160830 1602N 07227W 9244 00812 0142 +205 +200 038013 013 021 001 00
160900 1603N 07228W 9249 00806 0140 +211 +196 038016 017 020 000 00
160930 1604N 07229W 9250 00806 0138 +218 +189 037018 019 020 000 00
161000 1605N 07230W 9245 00809 0138 +217 +188 037021 023 022 000 00
161030 1606N 07232W 9250 00801 0136 +218 +178 050016 019 024 005 00
161100 1607N 07233W 9251 00801 0135 +220 +180 056014 015 036 010 00
161130 1609N 07234W 9253 00801 0138 +213 +169 042014 015 034 015 00
161200 1610N 07235W 9249 00807 0138 +221 +180 040019 022 032 011 00
161230 1611N 07236W 9247 00809 0141 +215 +194 044023 024 028 006 00
161300 1612N 07237W 9253 00805 0144 +211 +198 052020 022 022 002 00
161330 1613N 07238W 9249 00809 0146 +205 +197 055020 020 021 001 00
161400 1614N 07239W 9250 00808 0147 +205 +196 053023 023 021 000 00
161430 1616N 07241W 9249 00810 0148 +202 +197 049022 023 023 000 00
161500 1617N 07242W 9249 00810 //// +200 //// 048024 026 024 001 01
161530 1618N 07243W 9250 00809 //// +200 //// 040025 025 024 000 01
161600 1619N 07244W 9250 00809 0145 +206 +196 042024 025 026 001 00
161630 1620N 07245W 9248 00811 0144 +209 +190 044026 026 025 000 00
161700 1621N 07246W 9249 00808 0145 +207 +194 045025 026 026 000 00
161730 1622N 07247W 9249 00809 //// +198 //// 046025 026 028 001 01
161800 1624N 07248W 9249 00808 //// +197 //// 046026 027 029 000 01
$$
;





37 -
000
URNT15 KNHC 101630
AF301 0503A CHANTAL HDOB 37 20130710
161830 1625N 07250W 9252 00807 0148 +198 //// 042029 030 029 001 01
161900 1626N 07251W 9247 00810 0148 +198 +197 043029 030 029 000 01
161930 1627N 07252W 9250 00809 0148 +199 +195 045031 031 030 000 00
162000 1628N 07253W 9248 00810 0146 +205 +190 045031 032 030 000 03
162030 1629N 07254W 9248 00811 0148 +204 +189 046032 032 030 001 00
162100 1630N 07255W 9248 00811 0149 +205 +188 046033 034 028 001 00
162130 1631N 07256W 9249 00811 0148 +205 +187 045036 037 028 000 00
162200 1633N 07257W 9249 00811 0148 +208 +187 045035 037 028 001 00
162230 1634N 07258W 9249 00810 0148 +205 +191 042029 034 027 000 00
162300 1635N 07259W 9250 00809 0147 +205 +197 036022 025 022 000 00
162330 1636N 07300W 9248 00811 0146 +205 +197 030020 021 022 001 00
162400 1637N 07301W 9249 00809 0147 +206 +197 029019 019 020 000 03
162430 1638N 07303W 9245 00815 0147 +210 +195 031020 021 /// /// 03
162500 1637N 07304W 9249 00811 0148 +209 +195 028019 021 /// /// 03
162530 1635N 07304W 9250 00809 0146 +205 +198 020018 018 020 000 00
162600 1633N 07304W 9250 00808 0146 +205 +199 018019 019 023 000 00
162630 1632N 07304W 9247 00811 0146 +205 +198 023021 021 025 000 00
162700 1630N 07304W 9252 00807 0147 +209 +193 028022 022 027 000 00
162730 1628N 07303W 9246 00813 0146 +208 +196 034026 028 030 000 00
162800 1626N 07304W 9249 00808 0146 +202 +199 038032 033 031 001 01
$$
;

[Zanthe]

Wow. Convection really increased overnight. If Chantal didn't have a LLC, I'd be surprised if it isn't trying to put one down. Frankly, if this was just another open tropical wave that never was declared a TS, most people would be screaming about how good it looks for a wave at this point. Let's see if it can sustain this deeper convection. Probably the only reason the NHC didn't declare it dead earlier is that they were biding their time. With the convection on the increase, well. We'll see what happens. If you are in Florida, you probably won't have to board up, but never let your guard down. Even in Chantal tracks over you as a weak TD or a wave, there could still be quite a bit of flooding. Just my two cents.

she did by 5pm

She did what..?

[northjaxpro]

Is it just me or is the ULL in the vicinity of FL filing in/weakening? Wouldn't that lessen shear in the vicinity of Chantal and/or her projected path?

Seems to still be chugging along on recent water vapor imagery. The token convection that's hanging around with it is waning though.

There is decent 850 mb vorticity in the vicinity of the disturbance in the Florida Straits. The disturbance continues to be vigorous at this time.

[Jevo]

NAVGEM full loop 0Z- sends whats left of Chantal into the GOM and regenerates it just it time to smash into Galveston at warp 4.....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Okay, why is this funny? Not to get into a this model is better than the other one tit for tat, but hasn't this come up as a scenario a few times now? If so, why doesn't anybody lend any credence to that theory? Everyone thinks it's funny......

the NAVGEM is notorious for not being correct in the long term. And wxman57, a pro met, just stated if anything got going it would probably end up in the BOC toward Mexico, due to the synoptics.

The NAVGEM was just put into service 5 months ago, this being it's first season running at full resolution. At this point I don't believe we have that much data to support a statement of the model being notorious for doing anything yet. I do recall however that the NAVGEM as long as 4 days ago was showing Chantel going south of Cuba and into the BOC/GOM, which most of us scoffed at.

[artist]

[Caribwxgirl]

she did by 5pm

She did what..?

I think Florida sun is suggesting the storm will be declared dead at 5pm

[floridasun78]

Wow. Convection really increased overnight. If Chantal didn't have a LLC, I'd be surprised if it isn't trying to put one down. Frankly, if this was just another open tropical wave that never was declared a TS, most people would be screaming about how good it looks for a wave at this point. Let's see if it can sustain this deeper convection. Probably the only reason the NHC didn't declare it dead earlier is that they were biding their time. With the convection on the increase, well. We'll see what happens. If you are in Florida, you probably won't have to board up, but never let your guard down. Even in Chantal tracks over you as a weak TD or a wave, there could still be quite a bit of flooding. Just my two cents.

she did by 5pm

She did what..?

dead i mean

[AdamFirst]

NWS Melbourne Hazardous Weather Outlook

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF INTO THURSDAY THEN OPEN UP INTO
A TROUGH BY LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PEOPLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...WHICH IS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST
OF HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. CHANTAL...IN THE FORM OF A DEPRESSION OR
POSSIBLY AN OPEN WAVE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA ON THURSDAY...THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NOW IS AN EXCELLENT TIME TO REVIEW YOUR SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTION
PLAN...AND GATHER ANY REMAINING SUPPLIES FOR YOUR HURRICANE KIT
THAT YOU MIGHT STILL NEED.

[artist]

Is it just me or is the ULL in the vicinity of FL filing in/weakening? Wouldn't that lessen shear in the vicinity of Chantal and/or her projected path?

Seems to still be chugging along on recent water vapor imagery. The token convection that's hanging around with it is waning though.

There is decent 850 mb vorticity in the vicinity of the disturbance in the Florida Straits. The disturbance continues to be vigorous at this time.

how would that affect Chantal?

[ROCK]

agree Jevo....its practically a new model with the upgrade and this season we see how it does....not to bad so far though med-long up to 180hr is always suspect in every model really. It probably will fall in line with the big boys soon. I just like posting it...

[A1A]

The NAVGEM was just put into service 5 months ago, this being it's first season running at full resolution. At this point I don't believe we have that much data to support a statement of the model being notorious for doing anything yet. I do recall however that the NAVGEM as long as 4 days ago was showing Chantel going south of Cuba and into the BOC/GOM, which most of us scoffed at.

Good points - here's a brief summary from wikipedia about the improved NAVGEM -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navy_Globa ... ntal_Model

[artist]

Okay, why is this funny? Not to get into a this model is better than the other one tit for tat, but hasn't this come up as a scenario a few times now? If so, why doesn't anybody lend any credence to that theory? Everyone thinks it's funny......

the NAVGEM is notorious for not being correct in the long term. And wxman57, a pro met, just stated if anything got going it would probably end up in the BOC toward Mexico, due to the synoptics.

The NAVGEM was just put into service 5 months ago, this being it's first season running at full resolution. At this point I don't believe we have that much data to support a statement of the model being notorious for doing anything yet. I do recall however that the NAVGEM as long as 4 days ago was showing Chantel going south of Cuba and into the BOC/GOM, which most of us scoffed at.

true, Jevo, with its upgrades. Thanks for correcting me on that.

[chemist44]

A few years ago an open wave stalled over Daytona Beach and dumped 22 inches of rain in 24 hours. If the remnants of Chantal combine with the upper level disturbance over the Bahamas it could be a prolific rain maker. You can never underestimate the rainfall from a tropical system, named or not.

[Aric Dunn]

man thing just does not want to give up.