Texas Winter 2017-2018

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm thinking temps will run a few degrees colder than forecast tomorrow and tomorrow night. Saturday stays in the lower 40s and Xmas eve mid to upper 40s for highs. Christmas day looks good with highs upper 40s to lower 50s.

Next Tuesday thru Saturday temps remain in the 40s for highs and lower 30s for lows. Next weather event will be December 28th-30th

[Brent]

GFS all over the place again with next week's system, now its warm again

[Ralph's Weather]

Miracles do happen, you have to remember that. Just sad that we're having to even hope for a miracle lol.

Just about every year we get one some where in N TX. Just remember College Station getting 6 inches when little accumulation was forecasted. This one all depends on the track and strength of the low as it ejects along the Red River.

[gboudx]

18Z NAM just took a huge step towards what I have been expecting. Much more Canadian like for tomorrow night. Snow makes it into the far NW portion of the Metroplex. The shortwave is stronger, slower and further south, at the strength it shows the shortwave it would be capable of producing heavy snow right under its center.

If it happens, the NWS will be left explaining what happened. They don't think too highly of this happening.

Late Friday evening into early Saturday morning, temperatures
across northwest zones will fall to near 32 degrees. It was during
this portion of the forecast where it was previously thought that
a threat for a very light winter mix was possible. I`ve removed
this potential for a few reasons:

1) It appears that the mid-level dry-slot will rapidly accelerate
to the north, drying the column very rapidly.
2) Forecast soundings in the COLDEST guidance (Canadian/NAM) indicate
VERY warm air aloft with 850mb temps near 3 C. Empirical studies
have suggested that at temperatures this warm (3 C or greater),
re-freezing for any type of sleet/snow is HIGHLY unlikely
3) Surface temperatures appear to remain just above 32 even
accounting for any evaporative cooling. Moreover, even if
temperatures fell to 32 degrees, the above normal warmth today
coupled with the latent heat of freezing of raindrops at the
surface will likely mitigate impacts.

The one factor that could allow for some sort of winter
precipitation would be much stronger CAA. At this time, this
doesn`t appear likely and it`s more probable that the deeper
colder air will arrive much too late for any winter precipitation.

However, late next week has potential.

The latter part of the extended forecast presents a real challenge
as deterministic model guidance offers vastly different
solutions. Even with some of the ensemble guidance from one model
supporting the deterministic output of another model, it should
be stressed that any forecast (deterministic or probabilistic)
this far out should be used with EXTREME caution! At this time,
I`ll side with the model solutions that keep Tuesday through most
of Thursday warm enough such that the main precipitation type is
rain. Thursday night into Friday, there could be a changeover to
some sort of a winter mix across parts of the area as colder air
plunges southward in the wake of a shallow front. This scenario
is supported by the deterministic GFS and about 60% of the
European ensemble guidance. As has been the theme over the last
several weeks---stay tuned.

[Brent]

GFS has a 2nd piece of energy for New Years weekend with an ice storm in South Texas

[dhweather]

Cold New Years Eve? The ECMWF roll of the dice today say maybe with a 1054 High over Wyoming. Any takers?

Ole Miss has a better chance at making a bowl next year than this happening

Post of the year!

[dhweather]

This is almost like a mating call for Portastorm - the freezing drizzle capital of the world!

[Brent]

Miracles do happen, you have to remember that. Just sad that we're having to even hope for a miracle lol.

foot of snow in Dallas in 2010 proves we can have miracles

[dhweather]

18Z NAM just took a huge step towards what I have been expecting. Much more Canadian like for tomorrow night. Snow makes it into the far NW portion of the Metroplex. The shortwave is stronger, slower and further south, at the strength it shows the shortwave it would be capable of producing heavy snow right under its center.

Which one, 32km, 12km, 3km ? I looked at the first two, the tiniest bit of frozen precip I see is in Oklahoma. Not saying it won't happen, but the odds are incredibly low. FWD doesn't sound like they think so either.

[Ralph's Weather]

I don't look at the 32km but the others show up to 4" between Wichita Falls and Gainesville.

[Brent]

if you run the precip map on the 12km NAM there's no snow in Texas but oddly the snow map shows accumulation from what looks to be just a heavy line of rain type deal. Could it be sleet with the higher echoes? The snow map does afterall include sleet

it accumulates also starting at 18z which to me is way too early

I want it to happen as much as the next person here, but the NAM isn't exactly convincing at face value anyway

[Ralph's Weather]

We will see what happens. Dynamic cooling is very hard to predict and the heavier it falls the more likely snow is.

[disneymanda]

We will see what happens. Dynamic cooling is very hard to predict and the heavier it falls the more likely snow is.

Is that was created the ingredients to develop for the snow earlier this month?

[Brent]

the biggest thing we need in DFW Is heavy precip to lag

that's our only chance

NAM is clearing out pretty fast which is a negative

[Ralph's Weather]

We will see what happens. Dynamic cooling is very hard to predict and the heavier it falls the more likely snow is.

Is that was created the ingredients to develop for the snow earlier this month?

No that was from low pressure in the Gulf wrapping moisture into an established cold airmass.

[starsfan65]

the biggest thing we need in DFW Is heavy precip to lag

that's our only chance

NAM is clearing out pretty fast which is a negative

How do u know that?

[Brent]

the biggest thing we need in DFW Is heavy precip to lag

that's our only chance

NAM is clearing out pretty fast which is a negative

How do u know that?

because that's how this works... we won't be cold enough for snow, we need heavy precip to force the snow

Without that its just rain

[Ralph's Weather]

It is fun to speculate and hope. I am only saying there is a good chance for accumulations near the Red River though I could see some dynamicly induced snow in a narrow band to the south of there.

[Brent]

It is fun to speculate and hope. I am only saying there is a good chance for accumulations near the Red River though I could see some dynamicly induced snow in a narrow band to the south of there.

I'd never say never that's for sure, but the odds are definitely against it. Better chance is definitely up to the NW of the metro.

Thought it was interesting txdot was treating roads in Fort Worth lol. Rain gonna wash it all away.

[EnnisTx]

It is fun to speculate and hope. I am only saying there is a good chance for accumulations near the Red River though I could see some dynamicly induced snow in a narrow band to the south of there.

I'd never say never that's for sure, but the odds are definitely against it. Better chance is definitely up to the NW of the metro.

Thought it was interesting txdot was treating roads in Fort Worth lol. Rain gonna wash it all away.

Icemageddon changed the way they operate. Every time the remote possibility comes up they knee-jerk.

Also, if they put it down before it rains it will help keep the roads from freezing for a good while. If it starts before they get it down they will stop and change to Mag and wait for it to glaze over.