ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

Getting there

[chaser1]

Also, I might add, its not called a "Buzzsaw" because of the amount of damage it will do, it's called that because the shape of strong Hurricanes can resemble a literal buzzsaw blade.

Believe it or not but that phrase actually expresses the appearance of the upper anticyclone centered perfectly over center and fanning outflow out at a rate that results in a "buzz-saw" appearance

[Kingarabian]

when recon gets there should be close to a cat3 maybe a high end cat 3..the winds need to catch up.

Yeah probably near 100-105kts already. This is based on Dvorak estimates, so a good test vs. real time observations once recon goes in.

[eastcoastFL]

What is AF303 doing? Are they on a different mission?

[tolakram]

What is AF303 doing? Are they on a different mission?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF303-1109A-IDA_dropsondes.png

That's the old mission.

[Nate-Gillson]

What is AF303 doing? Are they on a different mission?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF303-1109A-IDA_dropsondes.png

That was from earlier.

[chaser1]

Can't hold out any longer lol - NEED sleep! Good night ya'll; stay safe.

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1431828464538107908

[ROCK]

Need more cow bells!! Or recon needs to get in there 964 was last pressure I saw. Probably be under 960 now

[eastcoastFL]

What is AF303 doing? Are they on a different mission?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF303-1109A-IDA_dropsondes.png

That's the old mission.

Ah ok. They tricked me. It’s still showing as “in storm”.

Thank you

[sikkar]

Need more cow bells!! Or recon needs to get in there 964 was last pressure I saw. Probably be under 960 now

I'm thinking 950-955 based on improved structure.

[Stormybajan]

My prediction is they find a cat 3 with 120 - 125 mph

Going with 115 mph and 960 mb, would be surprising for Ida not to be a cat 3 by now, even if the winds are lagging behind

[ThetaE]

Last pass through the center by the NOAA plane (966mb) was at 7:30 CDT. It'll probably be about 4-4.5 hrs between passes, then. At a rate of ~2mb/hr (what Ida was doing during the NOAA recon passes), pressures would be at 957-958mb. But given the remarkable improvements in Ida's appearance since that last pass (and the rate at which Ida was improving on satellite wasn't that remarkable when dropping 2mb/hr), a strong argument could be made that the intensification rate has been even faster.

Personally I'm thinking closer to 3mb/hr, so around 953mb/100kt. Not too sure about the winds; think they'll still be lagging, but ultimately to get such rapid intensification WISHE must be ramping up quickly, which implies that surface winds are keeping pace to some degree.

[HDGator]

https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1431828464538107908

That AWOS station is about 75 miles north of the center and showing sustained 60mph winds with gusts over 70 mph.
I've been watching it for hours and it's been slowly ramping up with Ida's approach and shows a pretty strong wind field that is really strengthening.
I don't think the 35 mile radius for hurricane strength winds is anywhere close anymore.
I guess we'll find out soon enough with the upcoming recon data.

[ROCK]

Need more cow bells!! Or recon needs to get in there 964 was last pressure I saw. Probably be under 960 now

I'm thinking 950-955 based on improved structure.

I am down with that…those cloud tops around the eye are jacked. Winds either have caught up by now or will be when they get in the core.

[eastcoastFL]

My prediction is they find a cat 3 with 120 - 125 mph

Going with 115 mph and 960 mb, would be surprising for Ida not to be a cat 3 by now, even if the winds are lagging behind

I think you’re pretty close. Not sure about wind speed but IR sure looks like a cat 3

[PavelGaborik]

I'll go with 110 MPH, 955 MB.

[ElectricStorm]

I'm thinking recon finds about 100-105kts/~955mb

[SteveM]

That eye is looking pretty good.

[SunnyThoughts]

Need more cow bells!! Or recon needs to get in there 964 was last pressure I saw. Probably be under 960 now

Yeah Rock, Im sure she's in the 950's now...maybe low 950's