Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

0z CMC is calling for a Ice Storm from Southern to Eastern Texas into Louisiana



Sleet in Northern texas then Major Sleet storm for Arkansas & then some snow for NE Oklahoma & into Missouri

[DonWrk]

0z CMC is calling for a Ice Storm from Southern to Eastern Texas into Louisiana

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_s ... b6625b.png

Sleet in Northern texas then Major Sleet storm for Arkansas & then some snow for NE Oklahoma & into Missouri
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gem_mslp_pc ... 92-240.gif

So far out it's hardly worth noting right now.

[Iceresistance]

0z CMC is calling for a Ice Storm from Southern to Eastern Texas into Louisiana

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_s ... b6625b.png

Sleet in Northern texas then Major Sleet storm for Arkansas & then some snow for NE Oklahoma & into Missouri
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gem_mslp_pc ... 92-240.gif

So far out it's hardly worth noting right now.

Had to feature it because it includes the Gulf Coast of Texas

[HockeyTx82]

0z CMC is calling for a Ice Storm from Southern to Eastern Texas into Louisiana

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_s ... b6625b.png

Sleet in Northern texas then Major Sleet storm for Arkansas & then some snow for NE Oklahoma & into Missouri
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gem_mslp_pc ... 92-240.gif

So far out it's hardly worth noting right now.

I concur. Even things that were looking like a for sure are now in Flux.

[HockeyTx82]

0z CMC is calling for a Ice Storm from Southern to Eastern Texas into Louisiana

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_s ... b6625b.png

Sleet in Northern texas then Major Sleet storm for Arkansas & then some snow for NE Oklahoma & into Missouri
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gem_mslp_pc ... 92-240.gif

So far out it's hardly worth noting right now.

Had to feature it because it includes the Gulf Coast of Texas

Right, but one model run does not make a Forecast. I agree it fun to look at and dream but I think perhaps we should focus km next week before looking beyond. We need cold air then work out the details. Rule of thumb I follow. Don't spend the money you think is on the way until it's in your bank account.

[wxman57]

Like I said yesterday, I am now in control of the ECMWF. It keeps the front north of Houston. All models are decidedly less cold for Houston. Just a couple of light freezes and some cold highs above freezing.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZFeb6.JPG

Do you think this is things being more realistic or models just having issues with such cold air in place? Local mets here are pitching big cold for DFW. I remember in 2011 it seemed more sure it would happen, but I feel this one may be the usual models show big cold, and I end up wearing shorts and t-shirts.

Seems more realistic (less bitter cold), given the upper-level flow. Was just looking at the 500mb ECMWF forecast. I've never seen anything like that. Very odd. Main lobe of low pressure shifts west to Vancouver, BC. I would add that the pattern now may be more conducive for frozen predip than bitter cold.

[Iceresistance]

So far out it's hardly worth noting right now.

Had to feature it because it includes the Gulf Coast of Texas

Right, but one model run does not make a Forecast. I agree it fun to look at and dream but I think perhaps we should focus km next week before looking beyond. We need cold air then work out the details. Rule of thumb I follow. Don't spend the money you think is on the way until it's in your bank account.

When I saw the 0z & 6z Ensembles on the GEFS model, several members wanted nasty snowstorms in Oklahoma & Northern Texas

[Ntxw]

Like I said yesterday, I am now in control of the ECMWF. It keeps the front north of Houston. All models are decidedly less cold for Houston. Just a couple of light freezes and some cold highs above freezing.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZFeb6.JPG

Do you think this is things being more realistic or models just having issues with such cold air in place? Local mets here are pitching big cold for DFW. I remember in 2011 it seemed more sure it would happen, but I feel this one may be the usual models show big cold, and I end up wearing shorts and t-shirts.

Seems more realistic (less bitter cold), given the upper-level flow. Was just looking at the 500mb ECMWF forecast. I've never seen anything like that. Very odd. Main lobe of low pressure shifts west to Vancouver, BC. I would add that the pattern now may be more conducive for frozen predip than bitter cold.

That SW flow aloft continues to trend. TPV goes west still to favorable climo for us.

Where should you be worried? Those in the Southeast US and the closer you are to the far Gulf coast the less cold you will get. Why? The dreaded Southeast Ridge...La NIna anyone? But if you are in the core of the plains you like your trends because this shuts off any idea of the cold shunting east.

[Iceresistance]

That SW flow aloft continues to trend. TPV goes west still to favorable climo for us.

Where should you be worried? Those in the Southeast US and the closer you are to the far Gulf coast the less cold you will get. Why? The dreaded Southeast Ridge...La NIna anyone? But if you are in the core of the plains you like your trends because this shuts off any idea of the cold shunting east.

What about Oklahoma?

EDIT: Yes, the PV has been trending west for at least 7 Model Runs (Except the Euro, which Wxman57 has taken control of since Yesterday)

[TheProfessor]

0z CMC is calling for a Ice Storm from Southern to Eastern Texas into Louisiana

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_scf51cd07e30b6625b.png

Sleet in Northern texas then Major Sleet storm for Arkansas & then some snow for NE Oklahoma & into Missouri
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh192-240.gif

That's not an ice storm, that's an ice apocalypse. That would be one of the worst ice storms the last 20 years or so dur to intensity and location. Typically you do have to cut down ice accretions by 25% or so from models depending on surface temp and wind, but even so, that would still be a big time event.

Some things that are interesting with the CMC is the very cold air that's in place before the storm. This is very unusual for really anyone in the south as usually the cold air arrives right before the storm (The 2013 DFW Ice Storm had the cold air arrive about a day before IIRC). In this case many places that get hit on the CMC are near or below freezing 36-48 hours before the event and just about everyone is below freezing 24 hours. This is a recipe for nasty ice accretions as surfaces will be way below freezing at that point. The one saving grace is that there isn't much wind on the CMC, however, that also means ice accretions would be more realized and when you start talking about 0.75" of ice, it doesn't take much wind to cause a power outage. There's also a fact that global models don't typically do well with wind in the first place, especially after a week out.

[Iceresistance]

0z CMC is calling for a Ice Storm from Southern to Eastern Texas into Louisiana

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_scf51cd07e30b6625b.png

Sleet in Northern texas then Major Sleet storm for Arkansas & then some snow for NE Oklahoma & into Missouri
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh192-240.gif

That's not an ice storm, that's an ice apocalypse. That would be one of the worst ice storms the last 20 years or so dur to intensity and location. Typically you do have to cut down ice accretions by 25% or so from models depending on surface temp and wind, but even so, that would still be a big time event.

Some things that are interesting with the CMC is the very cold air that's in place before the storm. This is very unusual for really anyone in the south as usually the cold air arrives right before the storm (The 2013 DFW Ice Storm had the cold air arrive about a day before IIRC). In this case many places that get hit on the CMC are near or below freezing 36-48 hours before the event and just about everyone is below freezing 24 hours. This is a recipe for nasty ice accretions as surfaces will be way below freezing at that point. The one saving grace is that there isn't much wind on the CMC, however, that also means ice accretions would be more realized and when you start talking about 0.75" of ice, it doesn't take much wind to cause a power outage. There's also a fact that global models don't typically do well with wind in the first place, especially after a week out.

Yeah, it looks bad down there, but it's too far out even though I had to mention as a Big Storm

(On the Bolded words): I had to go to Springfield, MO a day early in the same Ice storm (2013 Christmas Ice Storm) that had 1-1.5 inch of Ice which was breaking trees & powerlines all over Central Oklahoma, the Ice Storm followed us to Missouri but weakened as it got there.

[3090]

0z CMC is calling for a Ice Storm from Southern to Eastern Texas into Louisiana

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_scf51cd07e30b6625b.png

Sleet in Northern texas then Major Sleet storm for Arkansas & then some snow for NE Oklahoma & into Missouri
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_fh192-240.gif

That's not an ice storm, that's an ice apocalypse. That would be one of the worst ice storms the last 20 years or so dur to intensity and location. Typically you do have to cut down ice accretions by 25% or so from models depending on surface temp and wind, but even so, that would still be a big time event.

Some things that are interesting with the CMC is the very cold air that's in place before the storm. This is very unusual for really anyone in the south as usually the cold air arrives right before the storm (The 2013 DFW Ice Storm had the cold air arrive about a day before IIRC). In this case many places that get hit on the CMC are near or below freezing 36-48 hours before the event and just about everyone is below freezing 24 hours. This is a recipe for nasty ice accretions as surfaces will be way below freezing at that point. The one saving grace is that there isn't much wind on the CMC, however, that also means ice accretions would be more realized and when you start talking about 0.75" of ice, it doesn't take much wind to cause a power outage. There's also a fact that global models don't typically do well with wind in the first place, especially after a week out.

Nor do they handle the movement of dense cold air very well as far as I know. A lot of wait and see.

[Cpv17]

Do you think this is things being more realistic or models just having issues with such cold air in place? Local mets here are pitching big cold for DFW. I remember in 2011 it seemed more sure it would happen, but I feel this one may be the usual models show big cold, and I end up wearing shorts and t-shirts.

Seems more realistic (less bitter cold), given the upper-level flow. Was just looking at the 500mb ECMWF forecast. I've never seen anything like that. Very odd. Main lobe of low pressure shifts west to Vancouver, BC. I would add that the pattern now may be more conducive for frozen predip than bitter cold.

That SW flow aloft continues to trend. TPV goes west still to favorable climo for us.

Where should you be worried? Those in the Southeast US and the closer you are to the far Gulf coast the less cold you will get. Why? The dreaded Southeast Ridge...La NIna anyone? But if you are in the core of the plains you like your trends because this shuts off any idea of the cold shunting east.

The Gulf coast? Well that would be good for 57 then lol

[Iceresistance]

Seems more realistic (less bitter cold), given the upper-level flow. Was just looking at the 500mb ECMWF forecast. I've never seen anything like that. Very odd. Main lobe of low pressure shifts west to Vancouver, BC. I would add that the pattern now may be more conducive for frozen predip than bitter cold.

That SW flow aloft continues to trend. TPV goes west still to favorable climo for us.

Where should you be worried? Those in the Southeast US and the closer you are to the far Gulf coast the less cold you will get. Why? The dreaded Southeast Ridge...La NIna anyone? But if you are in the core of the plains you like your trends because this shuts off any idea of the cold shunting east.

The Gulf coast? Well that would be good for 57 then lol

I'm thinking that he set up a wall up to 20 miles off the Gulf Coast to block the cold, (And use it for the SE Ridge heat) he knows that the Canadian wall has been breached.

[TheProfessor]

So far out it's hardly worth noting right now.

Had to feature it because it includes the Gulf Coast of Texas

Right, but one model run does not make a Forecast. I agree it fun to look at and dream but I think perhaps we should focus km next week before looking beyond. We need cold air then work out the details. Rule of thumb I follow. Don't spend the money you think is on the way until it's in your bank account.

I see nothing wrong with talking about an event that's 8 days away (this is when the event starts). Furthermore this event is a product of the cold air that arrives a few days earlier. The temperature gradient in combination with the Gulf of Mexico is likely going to form a storm, it will certainly be interesting to see how it unfolds. As long as what we're talking about isn't potentially putting someone at risk and is weather related, then it's a great opportunity for learning, even if it's outside 7 days. Finally when a model gives you a once in a life time run, then you should definitely talk about it. As long as it's understood that something like that is unlikely to happen.

[bubba hotep]

The Euro does have support from the EPS, so ignore it at your own peril. The low for Saturday the 13th on the last 4 EPS runs - 20F, 23F, 24F, 31F. The EPS is increasingly favoring an extension of the Pacific jet that undercuts the cold air, making it harder for it to surge southward. We need wave breaking out ahead of the extension to pop a ridge into the EPO region and force the cold south. The trend has been towards a flatter jet with no mechanism to really force the cold air south. Not saying that is what will happen, but just one of the wrinkles that is showing up on the Euro/EPS.

[Iceresistance]

The Euro does have support from the EPS, so ignore it at your own peril. The low for Saturday the 13th on the last 4 EPS runs - 20F, 23F, 24F, 31F. The EPS is increasingly favoring an extension of the Pacific jet that undercuts the cold air, making it harder for it to surge southward. We need wave breaking out ahead of the extension to pop a ridge into the EPO region and force the cold south. The trend has been towards a flatter jet with no mechanism to really force the cold air south. Not saying that is what will happen, but just one of the wrinkles that is showing up on the Euro/EPS.

What is the EPO looking like in the next several days?

[Iceresistance]

The 12z Models are getting started, will most of them be on a warming trend like the EPS & Euro model? (And will they become warmer with Wxman57 in Control?) I personally hope not.

[HockeyTx82]

Like I said yesterday, I am now in control of the ECMWF. It keeps the front north of Houston. All models are decidedly less cold for Houston. Just a couple of light freezes and some cold highs above freezing.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models00ZFeb6.JPG

Do you think this is things being more realistic or models just having issues with such cold air in place? Local mets here are pitching big cold for DFW. I remember in 2011 it seemed more sure it would happen, but I feel this one may be the usual models show big cold, and I end up wearing shorts and t-shirts.

Seems more realistic (less bitter cold), given the upper-level flow. Was just looking at the 500mb ECMWF forecast. I've never seen anything like that. Very odd. Main lobe of low pressure shifts west to Vancouver, BC. I would add that the pattern now may be more conducive for frozen predip than bitter cold.

So your overall thinking as of now is we will still get below freezing but because the bottom won't drop out more moisture to play with?

It's crazy how these forecasts can swing so much run to run and then even br behind once the show starts. I don't envy your job.

[bubba hotep]

The Euro does have support from the EPS, so ignore it at your own peril. The low for Saturday the 13th on the last 4 EPS runs - 20F, 23F, 24F, 31F. The EPS is increasingly favoring an extension of the Pacific jet that undercuts the cold air, making it harder for it to surge southward. We need wave breaking out ahead of the extension to pop a ridge into the EPO region and force the cold south. The trend has been towards a flatter jet with no mechanism to really force the cold air south. Not saying that is what will happen, but just one of the wrinkles that is showing up on the Euro/EPS.

What is the EPO looking like in the next several days?

Ensembles show it going somewhat negative before next weekend and then back positive. The pure EPO teleconnection calculation might not be the best thing for tracking this, as only some of the CMC runs show a true big -EPO. So what we are looking for is ridging into the area that might not actually register as a true -EPO.