ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cat5James]

Still getting 40+ mph wind gusts and fast moving feeder bands in Manatee County

[SunnyThoughts]

Apparently I10 is at a standstill between Tallahassee and Live Oak.

[wx98]

I haven't seen any sustained hurricane force winds at any reporting stations in Florida or Georgia. Surge was very similar to CAT 1 hurricane Hermine in 2016. Think it helped with storm coming in at low tide and it's relative small size of intense winds to limit surge more than it was.

Storms that begin weakening prior to landfall like this one never seem to produce the very intense wind damage like those that intensify all the way to the coast.

[cycloneye]

Since 1896 it has been the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Big Bend.

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1696910464406429825

[snowpocalypse]

I haven't seen any sustained hurricane force winds at any reporting stations in Florida or Georgia. Surge was very similar to CAT 1 hurricane Hermine in 2016. Think it helped with storm coming in at low tide and it's relative small size of intense winds to limit surge more than it was.

Storms that begin weakening prior to landfall like this one never seem to produce the very intense wind damage like those that intensify all the way to the coast.

Definitely, that seems to have significant implications further inland also - Michael was amazing how well it kept its structure inland through GA (it was still borderline Cat2 where I am in S GA)

[SecondBreakfast]

Nasty looking cells offshore of South Carolina looking at the IR. Looks like they may come ashore along the SC/NC border?

[underthwx]

Good morning my friends, I'm hoping everyone is safe and sound, I wish blue skies, a cool breezes for all of you...be well

[cycloneye]

Tampa airport update.

 https://twitter.com/FlyTPA/status/1696879568181756155

[chaser1]

I haven't seen any sustained hurricane force winds at any reporting stations in Florida or Georgia. Surge was very similar to CAT 1 hurricane Hermine in 2016. Think it helped with storm coming in at low tide and it's relative small size of intense winds to limit surge more than it was.

Storms that begin weakening prior to landfall like this one never seem to produce the very intense wind damage like those that intensify all the way to the coast.

Nope, I have to agree with ronjon on this one. Considering that this region is one of if not the most vulnerable to storm surge impact Statewide, a moderate Cat 2 could put entire areas of coastline underwater. The fact that a Hurricane might be slightly weakening or strengthening would seem inconsequential to this process. The speed of forward motion certainly could play an contributing factor however the size of the Windfield (especially hurricane force ) has got to play the biggest role here. Just take a look at the impact to Southeast CONUS coastline impact as a result of large hurricanes out near Bermuda for instance. No doubt low and high tides play a factor increasing or decreasing such impact as well.

[Grumpy]

Nasty looking cells offshore of South Carolina looking at the IR. Looks like they may come ashore along the SC/NC border?

That SE corner of NC is a massive flood zone. I lived in Cary, NC. Any severe rain events up there resulted in flooding southeast of there.

[Sciencerocks]

[caneman]

I haven't seen any sustained hurricane force winds at any reporting stations in Florida or Georgia. Surge was very similar to CAT 1 hurricane Hermine in 2016. Think it helped with storm coming in at low tide and it's relative small size of intense winds to limit surge more than it was.

Storms that begin weakening prior to landfall like this one never seem to produce the very intense wind damage like those that intensify all the way to the coast.

Nope, I have to agree with ronjon on this one. Considering that this region is one of if not the most vulnerable to storm surge impact Statewide, a moderate Cat 2 could put entire areas of coastline underwater. The fact that a Hurricane might be slightly weakening or strengthening would seem inconsequential to this process. The speed of forward motion certainly could play an contributing factor however the size of the Windfield (especially hurricane force ) has got to play the biggest role here. Just take a look at the impact to Southeast CONUS coastline impact as a result of large hurricanes out near Bermuda for instance. No doubt low and high tides play a factor increasing or decreasing such impact as well.

The big thing here is that it came in at low tide. Here in Indian Rocks the water came over the seawall and into streets around 7 am. Had the storm been 6 hours later, that would have added another 3 foot since that was the difference in our tides between low and high. So, a 5 foot storm surge would have been a an 8 foot storm surge and much much more damage. It's still the worst I've ever seen since probably the infamous 1993 no name storm

[Iceresistance]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3351/QiPS3z.gif

Unusually high amount of lightning in the core for a weakening hurricane

[Sanibel]

I know I'll be argued against to no end but I still say when you have two strong hurricanes in the same basin neither reaches top potential...


CONUS air sometimes side swipes cyclones that enter the GOM too...

[Ianswfl]

I know I'll be argued against to no end but I still say when you have two strong hurricanes in the same basin neither reaches top potential...


CONUS air sometimes side swipes cyclones that enter the GOM too...

Katrina did! I still think Katrina was a cat4 at landfall! After Katrina during the great intensity debate Stacey Stewart sent me a VERY detail and LONG email reply why he though Kat was still a cat4 at landfall. I think it was 140 first landfall, 135 second. Katrina did a lot of wind damage in MS. KAtrina and Rita were large so they sucked in drier air hours before landfall unlike a compact Camille. Idalia I think due to the area she moved into sucked in dry air due to the shape of the land in that area. But as we saw with Ida, Laura, Michael, cat4s don't always weaken in the northern Gulf!

[norva13x]

I know I'll be argued against to no end but I still say when you have two strong hurricanes in the same basin neither reaches top potential...


CONUS air sometimes side swipes cyclones that enter the GOM too...

Katrina did! I still think Katrina was a cat4 at landfall! After Katrina during the great intensity debate Stacey Stewart sent me a VERY detail and LONG email reply why he though Kat was still a cat4 at landfall. I think it was 140 first landfall, 135 second. Katrina did a lot of wind damage in MS. KAtrina and Rita were large so they sucked in drier air hours before landfall unlike a compact Camille. Idalia I think due to the area she moved into sucked in dry air due to the shape of the land in that area. But as we saw with Ida, Laura, Michael, cat4s don't always weaken in the northern Gulf!

Katrina still weakened from a cat 5 no? It peaked in the middle of the gulf

[norva13x]

Down in Lake Wales here, had a tornado warning early this morning, otherwise some strong squalls coming through but nothing too wild. Still raining but I think the sun is starting to break through a tiny bit.

[Iceresistance]

Hourly Updates are ending, Idalia is now at 80 mph


Whoops, class is about to start.

[1234567]

We are starting to see the water rise here in Citrus county. US HWY 19 is now closed and we have about two and a half feet of water over the road in Downtown Crystal River area. We dont expect the water height to peak until about 430 this afternoon.

[syfr]

Nasty looking cells offshore of South Carolina looking at the IR. Looks like they may come ashore along the SC/NC border?

That SE corner of NC is a massive flood zone. I lived in Cary, NC. Any severe rain events up there resulted in flooding southeast of there.

Being "southeast of there" I agree with you.

Mostly it's south and east of Smithfield NC. From there on out to the coast, the terrain is pretty flat without a whole lot of terrain to drain water efficiently. WEST of there (Clayton, Raleigh and westward) the terrain changes to much more hilly, with low lying gulleys/creeks managing most of the runoff.