Pacific Northwest Weather

TT-SEA · #3041 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 2:00 am

Well it cannot be like that this year considering many trees already have leaves or are flowering.

It is amazing how much spring has advanced in the last week. These WARM nights are perfect. Another warm week will mean many more trees with leaves.

snow_wizzard · #3042 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 3:44 am

I know...It's like we are in some kind of a transition. Sort of going from the very mild period we have been in to a colder regime. That might explain the temperature roller coaster this winter. The temperatures have fluctuated from well below to well above normal a good dozen times the past four months. This next change to below is really going to raise some eyebrows.

It could very well be quite some time before we go well above normal again, after this.

R-Dub · #3043 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 9:08 am

WOW! Sounds like things might be a changing and its sounding cold :eek:

Can't wait to see how it all plays out. I had a dream last night that we had a huge wind storm, that has really gotten me back to wanting some real weather again :lol:

BTW anyone remember the Easter 1997 windstorm? That was yet another unpredicted storm. I remember I was out digging a trench for some drainage at the house trying to hurry because the forecast called for rain. Well the wind started around 11:00AM that morning and just got more and more intense until by 1:00PM the power was out and the trees were bending like crazy. Why I remember that windstorm so well is the fact that it lasted SO long! We had a lull around 4:00PM and that is when the power came back on. but by 5:00PM the wind was back up to 60MPH and the power was out once again. That lasted the rest of the night. The predicted rain never came, it was strictly a windstorm. A alder tree crashed down on my fence destroying a section of it.

Well here in Moses Lake at 6:10AM its clear with a temp of 37 degrees.
Expecting a high of 72 8-)

Supposed to be a record here today in the Columbia basin according to the Spokane news.

R-Dub · #3044 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 9:23 am

Also forgot to mention that the forecast for here in the moses lake area changes dramatically by the weekend. We go from 72 degrees today for a high down to 42 for a high by Sunday :eek:

Winter may well be coming back, NWS Seattle is saying cold at night with strong radiational cooling!!

andycottle · #3045 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 10:37 am

Good morning all.

A cloudy morning here in Woodinville, but also mild. Current temp at 7:41a.m is 54, DP 50, Humidity 89%, and baro 30.06 and steady. Todays weather calls for mostly cloudy skies And highs in the 60`s. -- Andy

andycottle · #3046 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 11:01 am

Viewing the 6z GFS....tomorrow through at least Friday the 11th looks to have a few sprinkles with a better chance at some showers on the 9th. About the 12 through the 15, a nice but cool ridge of high pressure builds up to keep systems from entering our area. -- Andy

Guest · #3047 Postby **Guest** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 11:56 am

Well I am looking at day 7 of the 12z and it looks like it's showing possible REALLY LOW SNOW LEVELS... Possible snow????

Guest · #3048 Postby **Guest** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 12:43 pm

This 12z run kicks butt for cold and possible snow.

snow_wizzard · #3049 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 3:24 pm

Wow! This one of the coldest 8 - 14 day outlooks for the US that I have seen in ages! So much for global warming!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/814day/

R-Dub · #3050 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 3:52 pm

Currently at 12:50PM in Moses Lake its 68 degrees, I have been out in the sun in my shorts enjoying this warm sunny weather 8-)

AnthonyC · #3051 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 4:22 pm

A cloudy day. First time I haven't seen the sun in over four weeks. It actually drizzled this morning...I don't remember the last time I drove in rain!! lol.

I'm still skeptical about the supposed pattern change this weekend. It just seems too extreme. I can understand the ridge of high pressure retrograding and the Greenland Block to collapse, but it just seems to extreme...as of now, the ridge retrogrades to 150W and the Block completely collapses. Another thing...at the end of this week, 500 mb heights are approaching 580. By the middle of next week, 500 mb heights are down to 518. Just doesn't seem possible.

If the warm/sunny weather is going away, we need a wet, zonal flow that brings rain to the lowlands and abundant snow to the mountains. I don't want cold/dry weather...it's useless.

Anthony

TT-SEA · #3052 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 4:25 pm

I agree Anthony.

Cold and dry is completely useless. Cheering for that is cheering for forest fires and water shortages.

TT-SEA · #3053 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 4:49 pm

Crazy weather for March.

A cold front passes... and we wake up to 53 degrees in North Bend. We still have clouds (even some light rain earlier) and its 64 degrees.

No wonder everything is blooming.

R-Dub · #3054 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 5:32 pm

Currently 71 degrees and mostly sunny here in Moses Lake at 2:30PM 8-)

Like Anthony says, the pattern change sounds quite extreme. I will be skeptical until I see it auctually happening.

TT-SEA · #3055 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 6:42 pm

The Seattle NWS is choosing to "ignore" the impending pattern change.

Seems a little short-sighted.

I think that from multiple runs of the GFS... something is going to happen. The 18Z run of the GFS vaildates my "wild March" theory. I think colder and wetter weather is definitely coming next week.

R-Dub · #3056 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 6:59 pm

What is NCEP or other NWS offices saying about this possible change?? I would look, but that would take about 2hrs with this slow as a slug dial up connection I am on here in Moses Lake :roll:

Currently at Moses Lake 70 degrees and now mostly cloudy.

snow_wizzard · #3057 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 7:01 pm

Wow! How can anyone ignore these models. This is some big time stuff coming up. I don't know if I'm more impressed by the possible cold spell or the parade of storms afterward that may bury the mountains in snow. This would be one of the most dramatic late winter regime shifts I can remember!

This solution at day 7 is majestic! I am going nuts over this possible scenario!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/cwwd/models/18z ... 0_168m.htm

Anthony...A cold setup like this would not be worthless even if it doesn't bring any snow. The big, long term picture is one of the things I am focusing on. The atmosphere has a memory of sorts. If we see an extreme high amplitude offshore ridge, we will likely see that same thing next winter. The chances of continuing to get these blocks without us eventually hitting the BIG TIME stuff are very low. BRING IT ON!

snow_wizzard · #3058 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 7:12 pm

The NWS is crazy! How do you ignore this. Just look at this Fraser outflow the ECMWF is showing at day 7. That would be highs near freezing for Bellingham. A 1051mb high to our north WOW!

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

The NWS is going to really embarrassed they chose to ignore this...on what grounds?

TT-SEA · #3059 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 7:17 pm

Keep in mind... the models are probably wrong. It will not be that extreme. Lets remember lessons learned from January!!

But something is coming. To ignore it is foolish.

snow_wizzard · #3060 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 7:23 pm

TT...I agree with your caution as to extremity, and you are dead on that SOMETHING is going to happen. I see this kind of stuff and I just go bananas...you know that by now.

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