Texas Winter 2012-2013

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

I think for the Mississippi Valley, both the GFS and Euro prog some very cold air early next week. For Texas, the European is much colder than the GFS namely because the European has a sharper ridge on the West Coast.

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro forecast 2m temps for Texas. It is colder than the GFS but nothing unusual. Light freeze down to Austin by next Tuesday morning. Temps down to 28-30 in the Houston area and about the same west to Austin next Wednesday. No freeze in Texas by next Thursday as onshore flow resumes at least for a day or two. As cold as the coastal water will be by then, the onshore flow will bring low clouds, fog and drizzle across next Thu/Fri with temps into the 60s. Better than miserable rain with temps in the 30s like today, I guess.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

I think for the Mississippi Valley, both the GFS and Euro prog some very cold air early next week. For Texas, the European is much colder than the GFS namely because the European has a sharper ridge on the West Coast.

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro forecast 2m temps for Texas. It is colder than the GFS but nothing unusual. Light freeze down to Austin by next Tuesday morning. Temps down to 28-30 in the Houston area and about the same west to Austin next Wednesday. No freeze in Texas by next Thursday as onshore flow resumes at least for a day or two. As cold as the coastal water will be by then, the onshore flow will bring low clouds, fog and drizzle across next Thu/Fri with temps into the 60s. Better than miserable rain with temps in the 30s like today, I guess.

Well, as you yourself often say, don't trust the models beyond 3-4 days. I certainly don't at this point in time. As I said yesterday, they can hardly get 0-24 hours accurate with this noisy SW flow. I'm confident most of Texas will see below normal temperatures early next week. Beyond that, I'm not confident in any other prediction.

[Portastorm]

For early next week, sounds like HPC is dismissing the GFS and going with the Euro/UKMet scenario.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1002 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2013

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 18 2013 - 12Z TUE JAN 22 2013

AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD WITH A COLD TROUGH ANCHORED IN HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN
CANADA AND A RIDGE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WESTWARD TO
THE WEST COAST. THE CANADIAN/GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE THE GENERAL
FLOW PATTERN IN ORDER...WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC FLOW ALOFT AND A
SLOW TO BREAKDOWN THE RIDGE IN THE WEST.

THE 15/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF/UKMET WERE DECENT OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO FOLLOW THROUGH DAY 5 WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
DISPLAYING ITS 'FASTER' BIAS...IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WITH ITS
BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST.

THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ALL THE WARM AIR/MOIST AIR
ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL BE ALL BUT A MEMORY BY DAY
3...WITH A SUCCESSION OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIRMASS INTRUSIONS
SHUNTING THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE OUT TO SEA. LINING UP ALONG THE
UPWIND SIDE (IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT) OF THE DEEP TROUGHING OVER
EASTERN CANADA....THESE CANADIAN/ARCTIC INTRUSIONS WILL TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD...AND WELL BELOW NORMAL (BITTER COLD) FOR
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE THE RIDGE
WILL REBUILD...AND ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA...ARIZONA AND PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...TEXAS AND
CALIFORNIA. IN GENERAL...AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT DEPICTED ON THE DAY 5, 6 AND 7 SURFACE PROGS WILL BE MILDER.

WHAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR IN THIS PATTERN WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE LEADING EDGES OF THE SHALLOW COLD FRONTS. THIS
FAVORS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...THE GREAT
LAKES AND LAKE-ENHANCEMENT SNOWS...AND THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN
TRAIL.

VOJTESAK

[wxman57]

I plotted a few meteograms based on the 12Z GFS. Nothing too cold indicated. Trend is definitely away from any Arctic air intrusion rather than toward it. All indications are that the main push of the cold air will be SE across the Great Lakes, Midwest and Northeast rather than south to Texas next week. 12Z Euro will most likely be a little colder across Texas, but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year.

[uhvjaguars22]

Sleet is still in my forecast for tonight Victoria texas

[dhweather]

That's what the CPC was saying yesterday - the Arctic air goes great lakes and new england.

[Tireman4]

Sleet is still in my forecast for tonight Victoria texas

Here is the link....



http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 8&map.y=80

[Tireman4]

Rain for me....sigh.....

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=130

[uhvjaguars22]

Supposed to rain here but nothing on radar and too warm for sleet can never go by forecasts

[RedRiverRefuge]

folks - if you want to play around with dual polarization data, you can download and use this free software (it's available for PC and Mac) that has the ability to display dual polarization data: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/weatherscope <---- I would recommend it not just for the radar data it can display, but it is a fantastic free weather software in general as you can display temperature, wind, etc. It's was developed to be used as part of the OU mesonet, but you can download NWS data as well. You do have to play around with the software to learn how to use, but once you get the hang of it, you should have no problems with it.

Thanks for posting link ! I like FREE

[Ntxw]

I'm not buying the models glancing Texas with cold next week. High is just too big, western chunk is likely to push it's own weight especially near the surface, euro has been shifting west ever slightly. Cyclogenesis over the northern plains vs new england is better for us than they look right now.

[Portastorm]

I'm not buying the models glancing Texas with cold next week. High is just too big, western chunk is likely to push it's own weight especially near the surface, euro has been shifting west ever slightly. Cyclogenesis over the northern plains vs new england is better for us than they look right now.

The "glancing blow" is certainly possible if the ridge out west ends up being more of a northwest-southeast aligned ridge. Plenty of time to suss it out given the sketchy model performance of late.

Even though Austin has had about 10 minutes of sleet this winter, I'm growing a bit anxious. We Austinites want a true blue winter weather event. It snows in Dallas every week now ... heck, even Waco has gotten in on the action. This is ridiculous!

Pressure is growing on the PWC to deliver some real goods!

[GaryHughes]

I have been up since 1:00 this morning watching the radar when the first blip on the radar showed up, needless to say I've been working ever since.

The guys have been working hard to keep the roads safe as possible.

Thank you so much. The job that y'all do really goes underappreciated around here. Now if only they'd add winter driving to driver's ed courses, the roads would be perfectly safe!

We thank you, and yes it usually does unless someone tries to pass one of the trucks when they are sanding.

[Ntxw]

I'm not buying the models glancing Texas with cold next week. High is just too big, western chunk is likely to push it's own weight especially near the surface, euro has been shifting west ever slightly. Cyclogenesis over the northern plains vs new england is better for us than they look right now.

The "glancing blow" is certainly possible if the ridge out west ends up being more of a northwest-southeast aligned ridge. Plenty of time to suss it out given the sketchy model performance of late.

Even though Austin has had about 10 minutes of sleet this winter, I'm growing a bit anxious. We Austinites want a true blue winter weather event. It snows in Dallas every week now ... heck, even Waco has gotten in on the action. This is ridiculous!

Pressure is growing on the PWC to deliver some real goods!

Certainly could, but we should look as to why. Before when they targeted the east coast there was a major storm pulling the trough east/southeast. They are now forming it in the northern plains which pumps ridging to the east sharpening the ridge out west

[dhweather]

12Z GFS looks like Arctic cold comes in to Minnesota, then slides over to new england.

Of course this is beyond 3-4 days out, and its the GFS.

[GaryHughes]

I have been up since 1:00 this morning watching the radar when the first blip on the radar showed up, needless to say I've been working ever since.

The guys have been working hard to keep the roads safe as possible.

The often "unthanked" warriors that have to get up and go on little notice on events like today. I'm sure in some cases, they've had to try and navigate through terrible traffic just to get to the really bad spots on bridges/overpasses/onramps just to get in position to try and help.

I think I can speak for all of us, we greatly appreciate what you guys do!

Well.

We appreciate it, we try to stay ahead of it, but that doesn't always happen.
It can be fun at times when the kid comes out... and very dangerous at times as well

[Tireman4]

The "glancing blow" is certainly possible if the ridge out west ends up being more of a northwest-southeast aligned ridge. Plenty of time to suss it out given the sketchy model performance of late.

Even though Austin has had about 10 minutes of sleet this winter, I'm growing a bit anxious. We Austinites want a true blue winter weather event. It snows in Dallas every week now ... heck, even Waco has gotten in on the action. This is ridiculous!

Pressure is growing on the PWC to deliver some real goods!

Just make sure you do not have Wxman57 come give a pep talk to the mets at the PWC. Shoot, we will never ever see snow again. LOL

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im still at 36.7F at the house here. Doesnt look like we will make our high temp.

[wxman57]

Just make sure you do not have Wxman57 come give a pep talk to the mets at the PWC. Shoot, we will never ever see snow again. LOL

Too late - did that last Wednesday.

[TexasF6]

Unknown precip and cold temperatures (36F) @ Longhorn WX Center in NW Austin...