Pacific Northwest Weather

AnthonyC · #3061 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 7:24 pm

Snow_Wizzard,

Here we go again!! Things look awesome in the long run, but you know it will never materialize. What's the chances of afternoon high temperatures near freezing in the middle of March? I'm not saying it's impossible...because it's happened before...but the chances are very low. So don't get your hopes up too much. Until that verifies within a 48-hour time period, I won't believe anything. But like TT-SEA has been insisting, a change is coming...and it's probably for the better. We desperately need a strong zonal flow.

Anthony

snow_wizzard · #3062 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 7:42 pm

I don't know...We are due to score on one of these things. I know it can happen because we used to get the good stuff all the time, albeit not quite this late in most cases.

Just imagine the disbelief of the average person, if these latest solutions really materialize! :eek:

snow_wizzard · #3063 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 8:40 pm

TT...I just saw your post in response to azsnowman. I tried to clear a few things up. Like the fact our lows, in late Feb, were 10 degrees colder than what he is talking about. I just don't know why you can't let this die. My average low in Feb was 29.4 degrees. The coldest average low, for any month, in over 10 years. The statistics are on my side...Feb was a colder than normal month...Live with it! Aren't the statistics what really count? Your method of judging is way to subjective.

R-Dub · #3064 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 10:05 pm

Currently at Moses Lake its 60 degrees and partly cloudy at 7:00PM

AnthonyC · #3065 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 10:21 pm

What happened to Brian_from_Bellingham? He hasn't posted for a long time. In a month, I bet this topic will be dead.

Not much to say. A little rain tonight/tomorrow morning and again Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. But a strong ridge builds Thursday thru Saturday bringing very mild temps and sunny conditions.

I won't touch the extended. Too much uncertainty.

24 is on tonight. It better be good!!

Anthony

TT-SEA · #3066 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 10:48 pm

My response on the Arizona thread...

I see a low of 24 degrees in there. That is 2 degrees colder than Seattle ever got during our dry spell.

We had some frost and frozen puddles in deep shaded areas but the weather was basically the same as you are experiencing. Mostly 50's and low 60's with chilly nights. Lots of trees bloomed during this spell.

Sure beats 35 degrees with pouring rain. I call that winter in Seattle.

Not the weather we had the last week of February!!

snow_wizzard · #3067 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 11:02 pm

TT...I must confess, I did not notice the 24 degree low. I hope we can simply agree to disagree and put this behind us. We have bigger fish to fry now!

I love the ECMWF! It shows a 240 meter collapse between day 4 and day 5. For the 7 - 10 day period it shows a long sustained NE flow with heights below 540. I cannot remember the last time we had that happen in March. The 8 - 10 day mean shows us in the cold SE quadrant of a BEAUTIFUL Omega block. If this verifies it will be a record setting cold event!

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif

R-Dub · #3068 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 11:58 pm

Anthony, what do you mean about this topic being dead in a month???

Currently at Moses Lake its 55 degrees and mostly clear at 9:00PM

Have a great night everyone

TT-SEA · #3069 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Mar 07, 2005 11:59 pm

O.K... I have got this figured out.

Looking at the 00Z run of the GFS it just clicked.

It has the pattern pegged for the next week.

A little wet tomorrow night... then warm... then cooler. Northerly flow and 500mb heights of 5580 to 5640 over the weekend is just cool NOT cold. Trust me.

After that it goes haywire. The pattern from day 8 on WILL NOT HAPPEN. The GFS has done this too many times... I am seeing its weaknesses more clearly now.

Snow_Wizzard... objectively you know this to be true.

What will really happen is the jetstream will break through and zonal flow will ensue. OR the blocking pattern will return.

andycottle · #3070 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Mar 08, 2005 12:00 am

Good evening all! Bit of an overcast day here, but also another mild day. Had a little bit of clearing toward early evening. My high today was 59 with a low of 48. -- Andy

TT-SEA · #3071 Postby **TT-SEA** » Tue Mar 08, 2005 12:38 am

The Spokane NWS stated it perfectly this afternoon.

They have seen this crap too much on the models this year. They know that it will be much more tame than the models indicate. Once again... we are giving the models WAY too much credit and ignoring reason and common sense.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS SUGGEST A PATTERN SHIFT WITH THE PERSISTENT RIDGE MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE EURO ALSO HINT AT THIS SHIFT WITH THE LATEST RUN SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS. THIS WILL PUT OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE DRIER SINCE NORTHERLY FLOW CLIMATOLOGICALLY IS A RATHER DRY FLOW PATTERN FOR US.

snow_wizzard · #3072 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Mar 08, 2005 1:10 am

I will admit that the 0z run is not as emphatic on the cold air. At any rate, I think we could still see some solidly below normal temps in the Sunday - Wednesday time frame. The really big story continues to be the COMPLETE collapse of the block after day 10. This could well be one of the great late winter regime shifts of all time. It is almost awe inspiring to think how much the structure of the atmosphere is going to change over the next two weeks!

As for the cold...given that the ECMWF has also been so dramatic, it can not be completely ruled out. We should have a much better idea by the end of the week. The nice thing in this case, is even the consolation prize of heavy snow in the mountains will be nice. Wide open zonal flow in the late winter and early spring can also bring thunder showers, hail, and even wet snow showers. As long as we get into a nasty regime with below normal temps, I will be happy. We may actually be able to string together 3 or more below normal months this year!

AnthonyC · #3073 Postby **AnthonyC** » Tue Mar 08, 2005 1:13 am

24 WAS AWESOME!! BEST EPISODE OF THE SEASON!!

R-Dub,

Since Winter's coming to an end and no more "exciting" weather will happen after the middle of April, this thread will probably become dead...actually, this entire topic of the forum will be dead.

The GFS continues to insist on a pattern shift next week. Still don't buy it. I just want a zonal flow...RAIN DOWN HERE, SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. Does that sound good to everyone?!

Goodnite to all!

Anthony

andycottle · #3074 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Mar 08, 2005 1:17 am

Viewing tonights 00z GFS...tomorrow through at the least the frist half of Wednesday appears to be partly cloudy and mild once again. High`s should be in the low 60`s...as 500MB vorticity height are in the 570 to 576DM range with some pretty brisk south westerly and westerly winds at near 50kts. 850MB temps are +6C and light breezy South Westerly winds of about 30kts. A weak from does try to come through here on the 9th during the 12z and 18z period. 10th - 16th, big ridge of high pressure is in place, but also turning a bit cooler by next Wednesday 500MB winds come from a Northerly direction at about 30kts. 17th and beyond....looking quite wet to say the least.

-- Andy

andycottle · #3075 Postby **andycottle** » Tue Mar 08, 2005 1:19 am

Guess so Anthony, but I would like this mild weather to stick around.
-- Andy

Guest · #3076 Postby **Guest** » Tue Mar 08, 2005 1:56 am

You guys are all insisting that we stay boring... No i don't agree with rain down here and snow in the mountains, and i don't want the warm weather to stick around... Just because the 0z wasn't very good for cold weather everyone is throwing away the chances... By tomorrow it could be just the same as the 18z or even 12z... You are all making judgements on just the 0z, wait a couple more runs and if it stays like the 0z run than rock on, until then I am still stuck on a colder pattern...

And Anthony you can't rule out the GFS 100% like you are... That is pretty much saying that you think something like that showing on the models will never happen, and until it does happen, you just think that when the models show cold and snow, it won't happen. You got to have a little faith, if you really wanted it to happen, you would have some faith.

snow_wizzard · #3077 Postby **snow_wizzard** » Tue Mar 08, 2005 2:27 am

Right now my best guess for the cooling to begin is Saturday. The 850mb temps are still a bit high, but a very nice N to NW wind is shown to blow in here. That should keep things more like 50 - 55 in most places. By Sunday the upper level cold starts to drop in and we get to feeling like it's March again!

Anthony...I agree. 24 was very good tonight! It looks like next week should be awsome.

Brennan...You are right, we have got to keep some faith in all of this. Our day is going to come! In fact, I'll bet many good days are coming for us over the next few winters.

Guest · #3078 Postby **Guest** » Tue Mar 08, 2005 9:55 am

That's 2 bad runs in a row... The 6z isn't the most accurate run anyways. I'd say its the least reliable out of all.

R-Dub · #3079 Postby **R-Dub** » Tue Mar 08, 2005 1:29 pm

Well I am back home early, my mom got the flu real bad yesterday morning and has been in bed ever since, and this morning I started not to feel well :eek:

Thought I better just get in the truck and go home while I can still drive other wise I would be stuck there for several days with the flu also :cry:

Currently here at LK Goodwin its 60.2 degrees and mostly cloudy. Driving home this morning it was mostly sunny all the way from Moses Lake to about Everett then I hit the deck of clouds north of that. BTW Moses Lake is expecting a high of 77 degrees today 8-)

Quite warm there for this time of the yr.

andrewr · #3080 Postby **andrewr** » Tue Mar 08, 2005 1:44 pm

There should be some 70's today. It's all ready in the mid 60's for a few locations as of 10:45.

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