ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

With a 6 day out model...look west shift to continue....(IMHO)

EDIT: wxman57 may be getting ahead of himself...lol

[MJA]

I'm a rookie at this but it looks like the only thing trending west are the models. NHC has had the same track for the last 3-4 updates.

Could the models be overplaying the high?

[Innotech]

should I feel somewhat secure that the 5 day is pointed in my direction? This track is looking an awful lot similar to Lili.

[Stormcenter]

I'm a rookie at this but it looks like the only thing trending west are the models. NHC has had the same track for the last 3-4 updates.

Could the models be overplaying the high?

I think the NHC is justing making sure its actually a trend before
they adjust the track in any direction since they do have some time to play with
before it enters the GOM. JMHO

[Frank P]

New NHC track MUCH farther south at day 5 - 26.5N/89.5W - south of Corpus Christi.

huh? looks to just be an extension.

how so??
NOLA is at 30 N 90 W I would thats closer to NOLA than Corpus
JMHO,
Tim

seems to me most of the day the NHC has targeted LA... this to continue through tomorrow and it will certainly raise the pucker pressure exponentionally for the coming days...

[Wx_Warrior]

No disrespect for NHC but I remember not too long ago they continued to have certain storm (within a day or so) pegged for galveston and never moved the line and oopps, here it was. Yes, it was in the cone but never updated the line.

[ConvergenceZone]

Isn't the SUPER HIGH SPEED of this storm system going to keep it from getting very strong?? I mean, I remember seeing multiple systems in the Atlantic that couldn't get their act together and one of the reasons was because they were always moving so fast...

This is incredible. The system is in the mid carribean Friday Night and by Sunday Night it's almost on the north Gulf Coast Line.....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[hurrican19]

No disrespect for NHC but I remember not too long ago they continued to have certain storm (within a day or so) pegged for galveston and never moved the line and oopps, here it was. Yes, it was in the cone but never updated the line.

this is the exact reason that the nhc wanted to get rid of the line a few years ago, and just use a cone without a line. too many people just follow the line. they gave the public a say in 4 different formats, 3 of them were different, and 1 was to keep it unchanged, obviously, it was voted to be unchanged. If it's in the cone, the line doesn't matter imo.


On a side note -- Does anyone else have to press submit twice to get a post to submit? I've been having to click submit, the page reloads, then submit again.. Quite annoying.

[Stormcenter]

No disrespect for NHC but I remember not too long ago they continued to have certain storm (within a day or so) pegged for galveston and never moved the line and oopps, here it was. Yes, it was in the cone but never updated the line.

this is the exact reason that the nhc wanted to get rid of the line a few years ago, and just use a cone without a line. too many people just follow the line. they gave the public a say in 4 different formats, 3 of them were different, and 1 was to keep it unchanged, obviously, it was voted to be unchanged. If it's in the cone, the line doesn't matter imo.


On a side note -- Does anyone else have to press submit twice to get a post to submit? I've been having to click submit, the page reloads, then submit again.. Quite annoying.

I think it happens when several are trying post at the same time.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, as it appears now, IF this is a system where New Orleans has to evacuate it is going to be one of those evacuations where you "GO EAST." For those in New Orleans, you know what I'm talking about---it's usually--"GO WEST!" Seems it will be different this time IF we have to evacuate at all.

[Sabanic]

Well, as it appears now, IF this is a system where New Orleans has to evacuate it is going to be one of those evacuations where you "GO EAST." For those in New Orleans, you know what I'm talking about---it's usually--"GO WEST!" Seems it will be different this time IF we have to evacuate at all.

If this storm comes right towards you Sean going East would be the worst direction to go. I don't believe going to the east of any storm is ever the move to make. North or west, but not eastward.

[Portastorm]

Really interesting 11 pm discussion from Franklin/Stewart at NHC. Those guys rock! We also see why they are favoring the right side of the envelope of models and reference the upper level trough over Texas this weekend.

[Sanibel]

The eye is still over land. It's the dark spot right in the middle of the peninsula:

[Stormcenter]

Well well the NHC for once is going against what the models are saying. I'm very surprised. I bet they change their mind if the GFDL and other models continue to shift westward. The trough coming down will be the key. They also mention SW shear Gustav may have to deal with in the Gulf for the first time.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, as it appears now, IF this is a system where New Orleans has to evacuate it is going to be one of those evacuations where you "GO EAST." For those in New Orleans, you know what I'm talking about---it's usually--"GO WEST!" Seems it will be different this time IF we have to evacuate at all.

If this storm comes right towards you Sean going East would be the worst direction to go. I don't believe going to the east of any storm is ever the move to make. North or west, but not eastward.

Why would we go West? The last 5 NHC forecasts basically have the system headed to SW or SC Louisiana. This forecast, if it were to continue would plow the system into Lafayette on Labor Day morning.

[RL3AO]

11pm track over TCHP map.

[Sabanic]

Really interesting 11 pm discussion from Franklin/Stewart at NHC. Those guys rock! We also see why they are favoring the right side of the envelope of models and reference the upper level trough over Texas this weekend.

Makes you think that eventually there will be a turn more northward after 4-5 days. Not a good thing at all for those hit by Katrina, or anyone for that matter.

[MJA]

I thought this was interesting......

THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07...ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE.

[Sabanic]

Well, as it appears now, IF this is a system where New Orleans has to evacuate it is going to be one of those evacuations where you "GO EAST." For those in New Orleans, you know what I'm talking about---it's usually--"GO WEST!" Seems it will be different this time IF we have to evacuate at all.

If this storm comes right towards you Sean going East would be the worst direction to go. I don't believe going to the east of any storm is ever the move to make. North or west, but not eastward.

Why would we go West? The last 5 NHC forecasts basically have the system headed to SW or SC Louisiana. This forecast, if it were to continue would plow the system into Lafayette on Labor Day morning.

Sean my only reason for saying that was that here in Mobile we have had several . . . Opal, Erin, Dennis, Ivan to name a few that were headed basically right in our general area only to slide a tad more to the east close to landfall. Had we gone eastward on any of those it would have been a bad call. JMHO though so take it for what it's worth.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I like the idea of them mentioning the shear in the GOM. It is obvious. It would be absolutely wonderful if this were to continue in the days ahead as it would shear the system and prevent it from becoming catastrophic, IMO.