ATL: IKE Discussion

[shah8]

Ike is slowing down, I think. It has not changed all that much in longitude from 6:15-8:15 EST. Of course, I'm playing guesstimate with eye locations...Stair-stepping to the SW though.

[Sabanic]

I think the thing to watch is just where Ike goes inland into Cuba. I think its still odds on that happens, even though some of the models have shifted north they are still over Cuba.

I still suspect this hits the eastern side and if it does then Ike is going to likely have a very long track right up the spine of the island, could be a minimal hurricane/TS if that happened when it emerges again...

That is what Frederic did. He was down to a depression when he came off of Cuba at this exact same time of the year, but quickly regained his strength and was a Cat 3 at landfall.

[Blown Away]

If Ike goes a little more S of the NHC track the NHC might have to upgrade those TS warnings to hurricane warnings for Hispanola.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

Haiti cant take anymore,look at this.Can you imagine if Ike slams that country after Fay,Gustav and Hanna did?

[KWT]

The eye is so shallow on the sat-imagery its hard to tell either way really shah8.

Sabanic, the big difference is that Ike has an inner core already where as Frederic did not and therefore any land interaction wouldn't be such a big deal but to Ike any long (18-24hrs+) land interaction, esp on the eastern tip, would play havoc with the inner core and probably really cause issues for the storms health.

However there would be be plenty of time for this to ramp all the way up again if it does go inland for any serious amount of time, as the gulf waters are plenty warm for a cat-1/2 to power up.

Haiti needs hurricane warning, Ike still going SW at the moment it seems...much more then the last set of guidence estimated it would do bar maybe the GFDL.

[jhpigott]

Meanwhile, Ike continues to plunge west-southwest and may miss (to the south) the next forecast point.

If you look at the most recent run of the GDFL it actually picks up this steeper SW movement in the short term . . . it may be onto something

[HURAKAN]

Center below 22°N. Continues WSW.

[Trader Ron]

Lyon's

Ike slows as it approaches the Keys. Not Good.

[cycloneye]

Is a cat 2 (95kts) now according to BEST TRACK at the 12:00 UTC update.

AL, 09, 2008090612, , BEST, 0, 219N, 678W, 95, 965, HU,

[KWT]

It certainly is still heading that way and I think Haiti is very likely going to see yet more flooding rains for Ike.

I think its going to be close as to whether Ike crashes into the mountions of E.Cuba, if it can stay offland before 75W then there the land is flatter from then on in the main.

[tolakram]

[JSDS]

I'm in Denham Springs (just east of Baton Rouge) and people in our area are very nervous about Ike. I'm staying with my Mom since a tree hit my house and I still have no power (she's on oxygen and is on a priority list for power restoration) and I have very limited internet access (a weak signal from an unsecured wireless network). While I don't wish Ike on anyone, I can't imagine going through another one when I have no way to prepare properly. There are no gas cans to be had, my generator is not running well, and ice for ice chests is in very short supply. I'm thankful for Storm2K for those times when I am able to get a weak signal and log on. Thankfully, we have some really great local Mets and the information they are putting out fits with what I am seeing on this site. If Ike does head our way, please remember us in your prayers. Between the massive amount of damage to homes (from falling trees), the flooding in the area, and the huge number of people still without power, we need all the prayers we can get!

[Blown Away]

I see Ike at 21.9N/68W which is S of the track and if he continues to move in this direction he will be well S of the next NHC point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html

[AdamFirst]

Why is Ike responding so distinctly to the ridge? Earlier in the week it was a temporary dive to the west-southwest then a jerk back to the NW...how come it's shoving it so far down south?

[Vortex]

Preffered Model Guidance is beginning to shift east once again since yesterday afternoon/evening. The GFDL, HWRF, Nogaps, and BAMD 6z all now indicate a substantial right turn into the weakness expected over Florida in about 2-3 days. Right now the final destination is not nearly as important as is the trend. A shift to the right by as little as 50-100 miles would bring a worst case scenario to the Florida Peninsula from the keys north to include the entire peninsula. If your in Florida please dont let your guard down. Climatology and the most recent trends from the 6z guidance suggest that Florida and the Keys are in now way shape or form "out of the woods" and in fact are disconcerting trends.

[Portastorm]

BREAKING NEWS ... JB now calling for Ike to hit the central or western Gulf!

Actually he says he still is not convinced that Ike doesn't take a path northward through Florida but he is thinking more and more like a CGOM or WGOM hit.

Take it for what it's worth ... and I hope I don't start the typical "JB this, JB that" thread. I just know some are interested in what he has to say.

[KWT]

Ike really is going well to the south of the NHC forecast points, it really does seem like its heading right for the mountions of Haiti and Cuba...just got to wonder whether it will make it into the CAribbean afterall however I do thinkthe GFDL has the motion forecasted quite well...but if it doesn't stop diving Haiti could get a big unexpectedd guest...

[jinftl]

anticipate this being reflected any in the 11am track or will the nhc wait for more consistency before a right shift

Preffered Model Guidance is beginning to shift east once again since yesterday afternoon/evening. The GFDL, HWRF, Nogaps, and BAMD 6z all now indicate a substantial right turn into the weakness expected over Florida in about 2-3 days. Right now the final destination is not nearly as important as is the trend. A shift to the right by as little as 50-100 miles would bring a worst case scenario to the Florida Peninsula from the keys north to include the entire peninsula. If your in Florida please dont let your guard down. Climatology and the most recent trends from the 6z guidance suggest that Florida and the Keys are in now way shape or form "out of the woods" and in fact are disconcerting trends.

[gatorcane]

anticipate this being reflected any in the 11am track or will the nhc wait for more consistency before a right shift

Preffered Model Guidance is beginning to shift east once again since yesterday afternoon/evening. The GFDL, HWRF, Nogaps, and BAMD 6z all now indicate a substantial right turn into the weakness expected over Florida in about 2-3 days. Right now the final destination is not nearly as important as is the trend. A shift to the right by as little as 50-100 miles would bring a worst case scenario to the Florida Peninsula from the keys north to include the entire peninsula. If your in Florida please dont let your guard down. Climatology and the most recent trends from the 6z guidance suggest that Florida and the Keys are in now way shape or form "out of the woods" and in fact are disconcerting trends.

so what are you talking about here? Link?

[Sihara]

Lyon's

Ike slows as it approaches the Keys. Not Good.

Not good at all. And I agree with the several posters who say that everyone in FL better keep watching, anything could happen, including a passage into the straits and (if I understand some of the reasoning behind the motion of the highs), right up the gulf coast.

I think one problem we have here in the Tampa Bay area is a lack of awareness among many people along with a shorter time before people realize they have to evacuate, and not a lot of ways out. Recipe for a chaotic mess, I think.